SEC CRUSH

The Season of Destiny - Week 1

2011-06-17T14:53:00.007-04:00

In attempt to lessen the off-season withdrawals we’re all currently suffering, I’m introducing a new column to SECCRUSH that I’m calling “The Season of Destiny” in which I’m going to take a retroactive look at the National Championship season of the 2010 Auburn Tigers. If the title strikes you as a little grandiose and biased (and really, really corny), well, you’re correct. I am an Auburn fan and the 2010-11 season was the greatest experience in my life as a sports fan. I can’t deny that every game brings me an incredible amount of joy and I’m not going to apologize for that. However, I think that, as this series goes along, you’ll come to agree that no other title could possibly suffice. When you look back at all the happenings of the season - close calls, breaking in a new QB, the Cam drama and multiple unbelievable comebacks - the most consistent idea that comes to mind to describe what was happening on the field was that this team had a destiny. That’s not to say it was all luck, though, like all championship seasons, some luck was needed. It’s more that this collection of people brought together at this specific time seemed to only be able to play out in one specific way. I’ve been around for a few Auburn undefeated seasons, but this is the only one that carried an almost mystical air about it. My hope is to capture some of that mystique as well as provide some solid football analysis of how this team grew and dealt with the various obstacles it faced along the way. I think you’ll find most of the analysis unbiased and I hope you also find it informative and entertaining. By the way, if you want to watch each game along with me, I friend of mine’s cousin’s step-son got his hands on these impossibly amazing Blu-Ray copies of each and every game of the season from somebody at hddvd1@yahoo.com. I totally didn’t buy the full season for the embarrassingly low price of $145, but I’m sure you could if you wanted to. Just thought I’d pass that along. So, here we go! We start with the beginning: Arkansas St. vs. Auburn, September 4, 2010.

First, though, a little talk about expectations. It’s funny to think back on the beginning of this season and realize how divergent were the views of the 2010 Auburn Tigers between the general public and the Auburn faithful. The public had Auburn lowly-ranked nationally and picked to finish 4th in the absurdly competitive SEC West. Thus, most people thought that the Auburn run to the National Championship came out of nowhere. The Auburn faithful were a little less surprised. Prior to the season - even before anyone really knew what we had in Cam Newton - the vast majority of Auburn fans were considerably more optimistic about the Tigers’ chances. The thinking was that they went 8-5 the year before, all while learning a brand new offense and defense and while getting a solid D+ from Chris Todd in the QB position. Now, they were bringing virtually everyone back for their second year in their new systems to face a very favorable schedule. If Cam Newton (or whoever won the job) could give them a B or B+ at QB, double digit wins seemed exceedingly possible. So, when Cam ended up giving them an A+++, it wasn’t a huge shock that Auburn could win the SEC and be in the National Championship hunt. No one seems to remember this now, but it’s true. Now, on to the game (NOTE: I must give a big hat tip to Jerry Hinnen over at www.warblogeagle.com whose weekly game recaps are an obvious inspiration to these columns).

Pregame. Our first game is being brought to us in remarkably awesome HD clarity by Fox Sports South. Our announcers today are Bob Rathbun and the original SEC spread QB, Tim Couch. I’ve never seen anyone look as nervous as Tim Couch does during his opening of the game. I’ve seen DUI suspects show more poise on camera. Fortunately, his opening analysis is pretty smooth and he nails the early promise of Cam. Rathbun says Cam “seems to be the perfect QB to fit into Gus Mazahn’s system.” Seems to be, Bob. Seems to be.

Poor Fred Hickman is stuck doing the FS South studio show that appears to constructed out of Sportscenter sets from 1996 in the back of a moving truck. He throws it to meteorologist Katie Fehlinger who rated an impressive #22 on the list of hottest weather women in America. Finally, someone has found a more useless function for the internet than this column. Katie tells us the temperature could “plummet” to 71 degrees by the fourth quarter. I’m really missing the South right about now.

I haven’t been to a game in Auburn in about 10 years (I know, bad alumnus), so I’m not totally familiar with the current gameday traditions, so I’m very disappointed to hear the opening chords of “Eye of the Tiger” blare behind the sideline reporters opening remarks. Oh well, at least it’s not the introduction music anymore.

First Quarter. Arkansas St. has the ball first and comes out in a hurry-up, no-huddle shotgun. It looks more Airraid than Malzahn-esque power spread, which is of course terrible news for Auburn. Offenses featuring accurate, underneath passing attacks will be a recurring problem for Auburn’s defense all year. Not so much on the first drive, though, as ASU has to punt after one first down.

The punt is caught by Quindarious Carr and returned for a few yards before being tackled at the 13 yard line. That sounds trivial, but it marks an approximately 800% improvement over the 2009 Auburn punt-return game.

News breaks that Jacksonville St. has beaten Ole Miss in Oxford. That was a really fun moment.

Cam makes his debut with a veer zone read to McCalleb which will eventually become the primary staple of this offense. They haven’t added the jet motion yet, though, so things are still not quite what they will be. Cam completes a short play-action pass, hands off to McCalleb again and runs his first keeper before Auburn is forced to punt from midfield. It’s not the most auspicious beginning, but the seeds of the SEC’s best offense are obviously already there, but just as obviously need some time to grow.

ASU QB Ryan Aplin gets his first delicious taste of the Auburn pass defense when he completes a 60-yard catch and run to a WR who did not have an Auburn defender within 15 yards of him in any direction. That is not an exaggeration, nor is it going to be a unique occurrence. ASU smartly realizes that the best option against this Auburn D is to throw, throw, throw. Four pass attempts later and Aplin finds a receiver wide open in the middle of the endzone for the game's first TD. A blocked PAT is the only bright spot, but it’s safe to say that Auburn’s 2010 season began...slowly.

After a good return by Washington, Auburn starts their second drive of the Cam Era near midfield. Cam starts off with a run right, but it’s clear that no one’s quite sure how this is supposed to work yet - 3 yard gain negated by holding penalty. Outside zone to McCalleb looks like a read play, but Cam looks to have no serious intentions of keeping it. That will definitely change. Cam’s first downfield pass is a wobbly one to a covered Darvin Adams which is knocked away. Unspectacular except for this: Cam threw it nearly 50 yards with no feet on the ground. Cam’s first big run of the year comes on a QB draw on 3 & 14. 16 yard gain, 1st down. McCalleb then gets loose - first on a sweep left and then on an option right to get them down inside the five. From there, we get our first look at the Kodi Burns-led Wildcat which we all knew was not long for this world, but works just fine here as Burns sweeps right and dives into the endzone for Auburn’s first TD. As an Auburn fan, this makes me happy, but as a Cam-owning fantasy owner who remembers losing this week’s game by 1 point, I’m furious. One week later and Cam is the one running that one in. If he does it here, I win the game and begin my march towards the championship. Wake up, Malzahn!

ASU gets the ball and is quickly introduced to the terror that will come to be known as Nick Fairley. He tossed one linemen out of the way, runs past two others for his first sack of the season. I’m going to have to come up with some shorthand for that series of events, because I don’t want to have to type it 500 times. ASU moves backwards about 20 yards before having to punt from their own endzone. Carr again catches the ball (!) and actually returns it about 12 yards.

Big-play Auburn makes it’s debut on a well-constructed play-action wheel route pass to Mario Fannin. The 40-yard throw is in the air for approximately 28 seconds, but Mario is so wide-open it doesn’t matter. TD Auburn. 14-6 Tigers at the end of the 1st.

Second Quarter. The second quarter brings us our first Mike Dyer sighting of the year. I really don’t remember seeing him this early. He strings together two consecutive runs for about 12 yards before being called off the field so Auburn can run the rest of the offense. Still, a promising start. Unfortunately, the offense proceeds to move directly backwards without him and has to punt.

Auburn’s defensive line is wreaking absolute havoc for Aplin, but a disturbing trend is developing: wide-open WRs. Every time he’s gotten a ball off, his target has been virtually alone in the Auburn backfield. If he had hit even half of those, this game would feel much different. As it is, they go 3 and out.

The first real Newton magic occurs on a 2-and-5 when he drops back to pass, feels pressure, then proceeds to duck and weave, dodging at least 9 defenders, for an awesome 15-yard-gain. It just looks unfair. Malzahn goes back to his magic hat on the next play with a double-pass resulting in a 47-yard completion from Neil Caudle to Darvin Adams. The pass was definitely from Caudle, even though the announcers go to puzzling lengths to insist it was from Burns. Maybe they had Kodi on their fantasy team. Speaking of fantasy teams, Newton dives in on the next play on a very early version of the jet veer read option. That first quarter Kodi TD burns even more now. 21-6 Auburn with 9:43 left in the half.

ASU returns to their play-action short passing game and it works, though the receivers are surprisingly covered this time. They catch the ball anyway. Alpin takes off an a rather impressive 12-yard scramble for a first down before being dragged down my Jessel Curry, who I just realized is white. That’s the most surprising racial revelation in the SEC since I first laid eyes on Jevan Snead. One play later, ASU surprisingly breaks a buck sweep left for a 13-yard gain into the end zone and their second TD of the day. That won’t happen much to Auburn’s D this year. 21-13 Auburn with 6:30 left in the half.

Auburn responds by getting a quick first down on the ground before Cam drops a 50-yard bomb into the hands of Quindarius Carr who might just have gotten away with the slightest of Michael Irvin-style shove-offs. TD Auburn. 28-13 Auburn. Total drive: 3 plays, 65 yards, 0:43. A drive that was unthinkable just 2 years ago is soon to become so regular an occurrence that we barely notice it. Good times.

My disappointment with the Auburn gameday music selection continues as “Living on a Prayer” blares out of our tin-can quality sound-system. Seriously, does one current Auburn student even know that song? Let’s hope not. We’ve passed enough crap down to our young. Let’s not add insult to injury by forcing Bon Jovi onto the poor kids. I’m assuming Auburn Band is not playing because they’re preparing for the halftime show. At least, I hope that’s what’s happening.

The crowd seems to think this is a 50-point game in the 4th quarter instead of a 15-point game with 6 minutes to go before halftime. It is whisper quiet in there. I blame Mr. Bovine Joni himself. ASU returns to the quick passing game and is suddenly at the Auburn 30. Despite regular pressure from our front 4 and wide-open receivers in the secondary, Roof is now dialing up blitzes. I don’t understand. This curious strategy allows ASU to convert a 3-and-9 and puts them inside the 10 yard line. After passing all the way down the field, ASU makes on odd move by running twice before a play-action pass is knocked down. They settle for a field goal. 28-16 Auburn with 3:04 remaining in the half.

Auburn continues their quick-striking ways when Newton play-fakes to McCalleb, sets to throw and then decides running straight ahead 72 yards for a TD would be more fun. That looked like some sort of no-contact scrimmage play. At no point is any ASU defender within 7 yards of Cam. I honestly thought the play had been blown dead or something. Just unreal. Couch responds by calling him “Vince Young with Daunte Culpepper’s arm.” We apparently still can’t find a white QB to compare him with, but that’s still pretty high praise. 35-16 Auburn with 2:19 remaining in the half.

After forcing a quick 3-and-out by ASU and using both their remaining TOs, Auburn gets the ball back and tries to punch in one more score before the half. They fail, but this showed that Chizik and Malzahn were still going to press the opposition at every turn - something that was a welcome change to the Auburn faithful after a decade of Tuberville conservatism.

Third Quarter. Demond Washington takes the kickoff almost to midfield only to just kind of give it away at the end of the run. Couch claims the ball was stripped, but I maintain he just dropped it on purpose. It appears to have been part of Auburn's second half strategy, as we'll see. It’s oddly comforting to have the first special teams mistake out of the way. After the cavalcade of horrors that was the 2009 special teams, most Auburn fans were expecting the worst from the 2010 squad.

ASU again makes the surprising choice of starting with the run, which goes nowhere, before again turning to the short passing game bail them out. They get inside the 10 before a clever mini-draw lands them in the endzone. It’s now 35-23 and much closer than any Auburn fan wanted it to be.

Things only get worse after the ensuing kickoff. On the first play from scrimmage, Malzahn calls the Fannin fumble play (Note: I don’t know the official name of the play, but I’m quite certain it’s a designed fumble. That’s really the only explanation for how predictable it is.) and ASU is suddenly in serious business at the Auburn 29.

Fortunately, they go back to the run, draw a couple of penalties and then Fairley does his thing again and they turn the ball over on downs. However, after Auburn gets called for an illegal pick on a play that Alabama ran approximately 45 times in a row during the 2009 Iron Bowl, they have to punt back to ASU. They can’t do anything with it and send it right back.

Welcome back, Mr. Dyer. Mike breaks the first play of the drive for a solid gain and a first down and they continue riding him, clearly trying to settle this game down a little. Just as you can see Fannin’s future carries disappearing right in front of his eyes, he takes a short pass 40-something yards to the house. 42-23, Auburn with 8:07 left in the quarter. It must be noted what a good job this was by Newton. For my money, it’s his first really impressive play in the passing game of the season. It starts with a rare under-center snap, two play-fakes and at least 2 down-field reads before he checks down to a wide-open Fannin. That’s a complicated play to make in your first game as a starter.

After another ASU punt, Auburn tries to run something we did not see much of the rest of the year - a zone read with a WR screen constraint option. Basically, Newton runs the zone read with Dyer, keeps the ball and then flicks it out to Zachery on the edge once the defense attacks him. It’s a play that Malzahn’s had in the playbook for a while (I remember him running it in the 2009 A-day game), but that we’ve rarely seen called in a game. Maybe this play shows why. It’s ugly and possibly very dangerous since the WR screen can easily become a backwards pass, which turns an incompletion like the one here into a fumble and a serious problem. Oh well, it was a pretty cool idea. Auburn punts on a 4-and-1, which is a proof that this offense is not yet what it will become. The Newton power play was a certain first down there. They just haven’t discovered it yet.

This is getting out of hand quickly. ASU turns the ball over on downs and Auburn replies with a healthy dose of Dyer following by long play-action pass to Carr (Q had 2 catches for 87 yards and a TD this game and 1 catch for 16 yards and a TD the rest of the season. I wonder what happened.). Malzahn tries to torture me a little more by putting Burns back in as the wildcat so he can lose 4 yards and force Auburn to settle for a 27-yard field goal.

Fourth Quarter. In a game that’s clearly out of reach, ASU makes yet another curious decision to keep running their starting QB directly into the teeth of the Auburn defensive line. You almost feel sorry for the poor guy.

Auburn sees ASU questionable decision-making and raises by keeping all of their starters in, despite the game being over and a road game at Mississippi State looming only short 4 days away. 105-lb. Onterrio McCalebb gets hit hard twice, then Newton gets hit, then Dyer. I know the outcome and I’m STILL nervous. Reeling myself back in, I realize that it’s only a 22-point game with over 11 mins left and I try to admire Chizik’s willingness to crush teams when possible. Plus, it’s obvious everyone wants to get Dyer his first TD. Still, Newton gets dragged down on an uncalled horse collar tackle and my heart stops for just a second. Dyer finally plunges in from the 3 and it’s officially way out of hand at 52-23 Auburn with 9:11 left.

The scrubs are in for both sides now. ASU manages a field goal and then Trotter and company run out the final few minutes. Final score: Auburn 53, ASU 23.

What Did We Learn? Auburn has playmakers. This wasn’t news to any Auburn fans. McCalleb and Fannin were more-or-less proven commodities and Dyer and Newton were the awesome additions that most everyone expected them to be. While things were still a little rough around the edges, it was obvious to see the potential of this offense. McCalleb outside, Newton and Dyer inside, Adams and Carr (?) down the field - all with Malzahn pulling the strings and clearly having a blast doing so. The Tigers rolled up an almost-quiet 608 yards of total offense without ever looking especially sharp in the passing game (see below). Clearly, this offense could be great.

The pass defense was still mediocre, at best. They allowed 323 passing yards to what we thought would be one of the worse offenses they’d face all year. When ASU's QB had time, he had his choice of wide open receivers both deep and shallow. A slightly better passer could have easily gone for 450 yards and made this game much more competitive that it ended up being. Still, they never gave up the big play and absolutely dominated against the run. Who knows? Maybe that will be enough.

What Didn’t We Learn? Lots. First and foremost, we still had no real idea if Newton was going to be able to deliver what was needed at QB. It seems silly to say something like that after a game where he threw for 186 yards, ran for 171 and accounted for 5 touchdowns, but only the most optimistic Auburn fan could pretend he’d really answered the serious questions we all had about him. Yes, he was an incredible athlete, but no one expected those huge scrambles to be quite so easy against SEC defenses. Plus, even though he was 9/14 passing with three touchdowns, I would argue he didn’t have a single impressive throw. The two bombs had way too much hang time and the rest were check-downs to wide open receivers underneath. He had no big third down throws and only appeared to make any sort of read once. He still had a long way to go.

We also still didn’t know if Malzahn’s pressure-down play-calling had improved. This was mostly because Auburn never really faced a pressure down in this game, but it was still very much on the minds of most Auburn fans how exactly this team would convert 3-and-less than 5s. The vicious Cam-based running attack had not yet taken form and the Kodi-as-wildcat idea was still being used, much to the chagrin of many fans. Would the proper adjustments be made in time for a touch road game in Starkville? We’ll find out next week.

Sean

Follow me on Twitter - @seccrush

A Word on the Newton Ruling and the Nature of Precedents

2010-12-01T15:41:00.002-05:00

As many of you already know, the NCAA released a statement today declaring Cam Newton eligible for this season. As most of you also know, I am an Auburn graduate and devout fan. What you may not know is that I am also an attorney and, as an attorney, there is one particular aspect of the Newton ruling (and especially the resulting fervor it has generated), that I feel the need to discuss. Namely, what precedent, if any, has the NCAA set with this ruling. Precedents are extremely important in American jurisprudence and the large majority of legal education and practice in this country is spent interpreting and applying precedents that have been set by our various courts, agencies, etc. This is what attorneys do. That’s why the popular interpretations of this ruling that are currently being bandied about on sports radio, as well as all the various blogs and forums that comprise our little sports universe, leave me confused and even a little indignant. Allow me to explain. Precedents gleaned from rulings must be specifically tailored to the facts of the case in which the ruling was issued. Let’s look at a simple example. Let’s say you own a knife. Now, let’s say that a friend of yours steals your knife from you and ,without your knowledge, uses it to stab his girlfriend (Note: this is a totally fictional story and not in any way based on thousands of cases I saw as a prosecutor in Memphis). The girlfriend then sues you for damages. If the court rules that you are not liable for your friend’s actions, even though your knife was involved, the precedent must be something along the lines of: a person cannot be punished for the wrongdoing of another, even if that person’s property was used in the wrongdoing. What the precedent cannot be expanded to is something like: no one can be punished for crimes involving a knife. Makes sense, right? So, how does this apply to the Cam Newton ruling?

The overwhelming majority of sports outlets have spent the day loudly proclaiming that the NCAA ruling regarding Cam Newton’s eligibility sets a precedent that allows representatives of potential student-athletes solicit money in exchange for the services of the student-athlete without fear of any punishment or consequences. Clay Travis, a popular blogger and radio personality (as well as fellow Vanderbilt Law School alum), characterized the precedent as a “dump truck-sized loophole” in the NCAA rules regarding player eligibility. Dan Wetzel of Yahoo Sports essentially echoed that sentiment later on the Paul Finebaum Show. I respectfully disagree. The facts of this case as we currently know them and, therefore, the precedent this ruling sets, are much, much narrower than these individuals are choosing to believe (Note: of course, new facts could change everything, but we have to work with the facts we have). The real precedent that this ruling sets is that you will not be severely punished for soliciting money for the services of a student athlete so long as:

1. No money ever actually changes hands
2. The athlete does not sign with the school that was solicited for money
3. The athlete had no knowledge of the wrongdoing
4. The school the athlete does sign with did not participate in, and has no knowledge of, the wrongdoing

That’s hardly a dump truck-sized loophole, in my humble legal opinion. I fail to see how a ruling on those specific facts creates an incentive for representatives of student-athletes to solicit money without fear of punishment. The biggest element here is, of course, the money. The fact that no money ever changed hands is an absolute deal-changer in this case and allows the NCAA to carve this very minor precedent. After all, who would want to solicit money that they are not allowed to actually receive? How would one solicit money from a school while keeping the player and the school in the dark about the scheme? It is difficult to conceive of a scenario where someone could personally benefit, financially or otherwise, while staying within the precedent outlined above. That is why I believe that the Newton ruling will not, in fact, have the sweeping negative effect that these media personalities are predicting.

One argument that I have heard absolutely no one make (not surprisingly) is that the NCAA should be applauded for seeing that punishing an innocent player and an innocent school for an attempted solicitation of another school would be a hammer-handed and counterproductive response. Let’s think about if they had ruled the other way. What would Auburn be being punished for? What lessons would Auburn learn? How is it fair and/or efficient to punish a member institution and a student-athlete that are, by all available accounts, completely innocent of any wrongdoing? Wouldn’t that be a far more harmful precedent to set than the one outlined above? Personally, I’d fear the following rule:

A school can be severely punished for the wrongdoing of a third party of which the school had no knowledge or involvement.

much, much more than one that says:

Representatives can ask for money so long as they never receive it and the player doesn’t sign with the school that was solicited.

Am I way off-base here?

The Newton case is certainly an odd one. There’s no doubt that solicitation of money for the services of a student-athlete is against NCAA rules and an activity that the NCAA would certainly like to discourage. Some will argue that the Newton ruling is contrary to that goal. I, however, believe the precedent set is narrow enough that the NCAA has not undercut their goals and I applaud them for realizing that.

MY #2 CENTS ON CAM, STATE, & AUBURN

2010-11-05T09:45:00.008-04:00

I am an Auburn alum. I am an Auburn fan.

Before I let out my thoughts, here are the FACTS.

Auburn knew about this back in the summer.
Auburn has a very tight compliance department. Strict or not, compliance departments cannot turn the other way to NCAA allegations like this.
As great as Cam is, no school would risk forfeiting an entire season by playing a guy once they knew the NCAA was investigating, if they weren't sure TO THE BEST OF THEIR KNOWLEDGE that he was clean.
The man that supposedly was soliciting Newton, Kenny Rogers, is currently under investigation for misrepresentation by the NFLPA. Misrepresentation! Lying!

Now here's what I think. I am sick over this. If the assumptions are true, I will be both angry at my school and the Newton clan. If they are false, I am sick over the fact that Cam and his team are being found guilty without the truth being known yet. We have a crooked agent who contacted someone at State, and now an Auburn player's reputation and Heisman hopes are likely gone. How does that make sense?

I'll say this again. Auburn has known about this since before the season began. They didn't know he would be the most dominant man in college football when they deemed him eligible. Just like UNC and UGA did, they could've taken preemptive action to maintain the integrity of their season while the NCAA completed their investigations. Auburn's non-action tells me they're very confident that to the best of their knowledge, Cam and his family are not guilty of any of these assumptions.

Could there be sins committed that Auburn don't know about? Absolutely. The assumption that someone connected to Auburn paid the Newton's $200,000 could be true. The facts, though, do not merit the black cloud now hanging over Cam at this time.

Many, including one particular childish moron, are now saying that Newton should not win the Heisman, that another Reggie Bush-like saga should not ensue over the overrated shrine that once succumbed to media peer pressure by awarding it to a defensive player over the greatest quarterback of our time. Explain to me how you maintain the "integrity" of the award by not giving it to the greatest player simply based off of assumptions and allegations?

I dread this dragging on for years. I dread that this not only drags down Newton, but also the rest of the players of an outstanding 2010 team. I dread that, if true, I will be ashamed of my school. Most of all, I dread that false assumptions are being taken as a guilty verdict by the national media.

What I don't understand is why Mississippi State chose to handle it this way. The SEC and NCAA are already involved. What does State gain by dragging Newton through the mud? Don't tell me this was just a former State QB and not the school making this story public. State, let the full truth come out, not just your side of the story (which centers around a crooked agent/runner). I'm guessing that Mullen is a little more willing to leave for another school now, because an already-lopsided "rivalry" is about to become a cage match, and I don't think State is up for a battle like that.

There's a lot of crooked activity that goes on in college sports that we are all blind to. This could certainly be part of it. Albert Means is not the only player of the past two decades that a school paid for. He's just the only one that got caught. Cam and/or his reps could be crooked. I just hope everyone let's the full truth come out before morally penalizing the young man.

Bottomline, I don't know the truth...and neither do you.

I BELIEVE IN AUBURN AND LOVE IT...don't make this alum into a fool, Auburn.

Matt

VCS 2010 Week 9

2010-10-29T18:55:00.000-04:00

Tennessee @ SOUTH CAROLINA -17.5
Ugh. What to say about the Vols at this point? I took them last week - with more points - on the theory that they’d be so up for the game that they’d keep it close at home, and I was right...for about 2.5 quarters. It’s become clear they don’t have anything - talent, inspiration, discipline - needed to offer a competitive game against a quality opponent. I really dislike taking underdogs I believe have no real chance of winning the game. Points alone, do not a successful gambler make. I can’t see any way the Vols remain in this one, so I’m giving a ton of points to an inconsistent Gamecocks team and praying the Vols have totally surrendered. It’s as good a plan as any.

Florida vs. GEORGIA -3
Man, I really don’t like any of this week’s games. How can it be week 9 and we still know next to nothing about two of the premier programs of the league? Can Florida finally make the changes to their offensive strategy to successfully exploit their talent? Is Florida’s talent as great as everyone has made it out to be or are they a team of workout warriors with little actual football acumen? Is their defense really this bad against the run or are they just so demoralized by their offense’s impotence that they’re unable to summon the required will? Has Georgia’s defense actually improved from the train wreck they were last season or are they simply untested? Have they finally found a rushing attack to supplement freshman QB Aaron Murray’s very impressive performance thus far?

If you can answer any of those questions with a modicum of confidence, you are way ahead of me. So, like Gordon Gekko, I’m taking the dog with the least fleas, quite fittingly. The biggest reason? In my experience as a college football fan (and especially as an Auburn fan), I’ve come to believe that it is nearly impossible for teams to successfully make a dramatic switch in offensive philosophy mid-season. There’s just far too much prep work needed to install an offense. You can’t just scrap your spread-option, play-action attack and start running a vertical, pass-first system overnight. For starters, no one is trained for it - not the QB, not the WRs, not the OL, not the position coaches, no one. Secondly, offensive coordinators are not universally competent to run all types of offenses (NOTE: Florida fans would tell you that Addazio is not competent to run any type of offense, but that’s another discussion). Even if the Florida staff had the will to reverse course on their offensive scheme (which I very seriously doubt), I don’t think they’d have the ability to do so.

Being stuck in an ill-fitting offensive scheme is a problem that just does not go away (look at the 2003 and 2008 Auburn Tigers if you want proof). It limits your success on the field and demoralizes your team and your fans. It’s miserable and it usually takes at least a year to resolve. Georgia’s problems are real, but not as insufferable. My guess is that will carry the day for the them.

AUBURN -7 @ Ole Miss
Don’t expect any disspationate or rational analysis here. We’re way past that when it comes to my Auburn Tigers. Frankly, I’m dreading this picks. Though it’s stuck in the middle of this column, I am writing this segment last. Dead last and only after a week of agony. I hate this game. I hate games where my team has everything to lose and nothing to gain. I hate games against talented, but underacheiving, teams. I hate SEC road games. I hate games against Houston Nutt in any scenario. I’ve actually even considered not even watching this one. Think that’s crazy and/or blasphemous? You may be right, but I can’t see how any Auburn fan can watch this game and expect to feel anything other than mild relief (best case scenario) or abject agony. Why put myself through that? There’s no joy to be had here.

Still, I’m trying to fight this mindset. Auburn deserves to be #1. There’s simply no doubt about that. Auburn deserves to be favored in this game, too. In fact, the only reason this spread is as low as it is and the only reason so many national analysts are picking the upset, is because of the widespread belief that the burden of expectations will be too much for Auburn, just as it has been too much for several other teams this year and just has it has been too much for Auburn teams of the past. It’s a convenient and solid thought process. Me, I think this is a new day for Auburn. This staff (a staff once, um, doubted by the Auburn faithful) has spent their two years on The Plains proving every doubt about them wrong. Gus Malzahn’s offense could not be successful in the SEC? Wrong. Chris Todd could never been an effective starting quarterback? Wrong. Auburn could never compete with the likes of Alabama and LSU in the recruiting wars? Wrong. Auburn could not expect to win with a new starting QB and new RBs? Double wrong. I’ve reached the point where I don’t think history is much of a guide anymore when trying to predict the future of this team. Really, when you look at the accomplishments this group has already acheived, beating an inferior Ole Miss team on the road with a lot at stake doesn’t seem like that tall of an order. I’m guessing this version of the Auburn Tigers fill it.

KENTUCKY +6 @ Mississippi State
I refuse to get locked into another battle of wills with the University of Kentucky. I pick them week after week only to watch them self-sabotage themselves just to spite me. I’m not giving them the pleasure of watching me squirm.

Here (again), the Wildcats take on a team with no noticeable superiority over them. Kentucky quadruples the number of offensive playmakers that the Bulldogs employ. True, their defense has been wretched, but if there’s ever a week when that won’t hurt them, it’s this one. In fact, I’m not sure I’d ever take this Bulldog team when their giving more than 3 points. Let’s remember, with Florida’s swoon and Georgia’s early season woes, this will be the first explosive offense the Bulldogs have faced since the Auburn game in week 2. They did well to slow down that attack, but were unable to score enough to make their defense’s effort worthwhile. I see a similar game unfolding here. Look for this one to be a one-score game heading into the final minutes. I’m not sure who’ll finish on top, but I’d be more comfortable with 6 points on my side.

Vanderbilt @ ARKANSAS -20.5
Here’s another one where, if you take the underdog, you are just clinging to the points in the hope that the favorite will be disorganized/bored/injured enough to keep the game much closer than it deserves to be. No one can seriously give Vanderbilt a chance here, especially after their total no-show last week. Arkansas knows they have to run the table to have any chance to win the West, so I don’t think motivation will be a problem. Mallett showed no ill-effects of whatever concussion he suffered two weeks ago, so I see no reason to expect injuries to play a major part. Could the Hogs come out flat and disorganized? Sure. I always worry that a heavy favorite might fail to be sharp - especially early and especially when the favorite is a heavy-passing team - but I just have ZERO confidence in Vandy at this point and I can’t see how anyone can think differently. I get the feeling that everyone involved with the program - players, administration, fans - view this season as nothing more than a lame duck...something to endure until they learn where the program is really headed. I’ll discuss my thoughts on that later, but for now, I’m not backing this Dore team against much of anyone.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL'S PUBLIC ENEMIES

2010-10-26T14:13:00.005-04:00

Excuse me while I take a coffee break from Cam Newton. I can’t get enough of him on Saturdays, but I can’t take any more talk about him in between. There is absolutely NOTHING more that can be said about him. NOTHING.

So instead of talking about the greatest piece of 2010 college football, I’m here to play Debbie Downer. The following are the greatest culprits to college football today.

#1 - BCS

I won’t spend too much time on this one, because it’s obvious. Both the BCS and the direct influence of the human polls (#3 on this list) are so out of line that there are NO legitimate arguments out there for it over a playoff. The excuse of players playing too many games has been debunked by the BCS supporters themselves (school/conference big-wigs) when they brought in a 12^th regular season game and conference championship games.

#2 - BOISE ST

They are in a unique spot, because not only are they #2 on this list, but they could also be what saves us from #1.

First let me go over the reasons for sticking them at #2. Until there’s a playoff, all college football conversations will revolve around hypotheticals (as has always been the case). Until the teams can face each other on the field, we really have no basis for truly determining the best teams. I’ll say this though. Comparing a three-point Auburn victory over Kentucky with a 10-point Ohio St victory over Penn St is a lot easier than comparing said-Auburn victory with a 49-point Boise St win over (insert WAC “rival” here). Nobody knows how good Boise St really is because there are too many factors to consider when the team isn’t playing legitimate competition. 50-point wins every week tell me one thing—those Boise St players aren’t getting banged up every week. Their sauna has to be the least-used one in the entire country. So not only do they face ridiculously poor competition, but they get to stay Week One Fresh every week of the season.

Now let me explain how they could also save us from the BCS. PUT THEM IN THE BCS CHAMPIONSHIP. Watch the mess unfold. Watch the ratings plummet. Watch merchandise sales drop. Watch ticket prices actually become reasonable. After Boise gets through with the BCS title game (win or lose), those in charge will be clamoring for a change.

I have no doubt that Boise could compete against any team in the nation in January after six weeks off. They have talent. They have incredible coaching. There is no team in the country that would be more than a four-point favorite over Boise St. But none of that changes the fact that a WAC conference schedule should automatically disqualify a team from competing for a National Championship. It may have to happen for the greater good though.

#3 - THE HUMAN POLLS

The fact that there are three of them should make it blatantly obvious of the inherent flaws of the process. And despite the Harris Poll making the "bold" decision to hold off on starting their poll until a few weeks into the season, all three polls have the top six teams the same. No matter how good our intentions are, there is unavoidable prejudice. Even if all polls didn’t start until week five of the season, you’d still have the ESPNs and other sportswriters making it known which teams were the best even before the season began, and thus influencing the polls, no matter when they were released.

I realize that polls will never go away, even with a playoff scenario. It’s in our nature to rank, but that doesn’t mean that it still isn’t hurting the game we love. A “necessary evil” I guess. Still no excuse for Auburn, who has the best resume by far, only getting three first-place votes.

#4 - TEXAS

Texas’ control over their conference hurts this game, and we saw the results of it this past offseason.

I don’t necessarily agree with the attempts by the Pac 10 and others to create mega-size power conferences, but once Nebraska and Colorado bolted, Texas’ influence to keep the Big 12 from breaking up hurt the entire game of college football. With those defections, an already-lopsided conference (both talent-wise and financially) became even more uneven. Yet there was Texas, exerting their power, not for the good of the conference, but for the good of their team. They managed to both maintain their giant piece of the financial pie AND keep their schedule soft enough to succeed in the nation’s eyes. Their efforts to keep the Big 12 brotherhood together helped no one but themselves (and perhaps the lowest tier of Big 12 teams who otherwise would have been sucked up by mid-level conferences, which, HELLO, tells us the talent level of at least half the conference!).

Texas is getting what they deserve this season.

#5 – KIRK HERBSTREIT

Outside of his obvious OSU bias, no one person should have so much influence, especially when his statements are so often hypocritical. Back in 2004, Herbie went on and on late in the season about how Auburn’s weak schedule made it an easy decision to leave them out of the National Championship (this example is also applicable to #3 above). Yet here we are a few years later, and he fails to acknowledge the same logic in his current Boise St campaign. The fact that he is going to week-in-and-week-out tell the nation that Boise St is a top two team despite their schedule goes directly against what he has said in the past. And that’s the problem. His influence is not only damaging the nation’s ear, but it’s hurting college football. The need for ESPN and its employees to make up talking points just for ratings really is disappointing. I love the ESPN/SEC deal and the amount of college football it brings us every week. Now that ESPN has the BCS bowls though, I worry about agendas. I will say that I like that Fowler is still vehemently against the BCS, but I am convinced that both the network and its top college football “expert” take it upon themselves to put their own agendas in place no matter the hypocrisy.

VCS 2010 - Week 8

2010-10-22T16:44:00.006-04:00

I’m back! The Good Doctor and I had a fantastic time on our trip to Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia (plenty of pics here!), though the experience of missing two weeks of college football was so positively traumatic that I have already informed her that we will NEVER undertake such a ridiculous adventure again. From now on, I’m planning all of the important non-sports events of my life so that they fall between mid-April (after March Madness) and early August (before the start of fall camp). As much as I love baseball and my Mets, if there’s any season you can easily miss two weeks of without too much pain, it’s baseball. Knowing that there was college football being played while I was away absolutely added a level of stress to the trip that I could have done without. Plus, the constant need to check in on the sport of my heart kept me from full immersing in the travel experience, as my mind was always at least 10% focused on regular life back home. Never again. I’ve learned my lesson.

I’d also like to send a special shout-out to my cousin, Michael Lyons, who fell all kinds of scary ill about 3 weeks ago and required emergency hospitalization while I was gone. It might amaze you to hear this, but almost losing my cousin was even more stressful that missing two weeks of college football. I’m so happy you’re doing better, Michael. Make sure to take it easy and remember to thank your sister Jennifer on a daily basis. Her touching emails absolutely sustained me and countless others as we awaited news of your condition. It’s great to have you back amongst the conscious and healthy, dude.

Lsu @ AUBURN -6
It sure is nice for the rest of the world to have finally caught up with the VCL in recognizing that Les Miles is the luckiest human being in America. The litany of his of inconceivable, ass-backward successes would make Cozmo Kramer jealous. It’s made LSU the most baffling team to watch for years and the most destructive team to gamble on in all of sports. I’ve had a “NO LUCKY LES” gambling rule in place for the last 2 years and it has saved me untolds amount of suffering, not to mention financial loses. Add to that my semi-permanent ban on gambling on Auburn games and you’d think I wouldn’t be going anywhere near this one. You’d be wrong. No true gambler can possibly resist the allure of picking against Miles at some point this season. Even for him, this year has been a hilarious parade of undeserved success. The bottom has to drop at some point. It just HAS to. Why not on the road against the only undefeated team left on their schedule? Why not against the first decent offense their #1 ranked defense has faced all year? That’s right folks, I’m diving in on this one. It’s always such an exhilarating experience to gamble against Les Miles. I couldn’t possibly resist for this entire season.

Uab @ Mississippi State -20
Two schools of thought on this one:

(1) We have a good SEC team at home against a C-USA team that is 0-3 on the road, losing by an average of 20 points to much lesser competition than they face this week (SMU, UCF and, um, UT). State is coming off their biggest win in years and should be brimming with confidence and enthusiasm. Plus, they should know that if they want to make it into the upper echelon of the SEC, they absolutely must start blowing out teams like UAB at home. That’s what the top teams do - get an early lead, extend it by halftime and then spend the rest of the game working on your weak spots and resting your starters. That’s how you stay healthy and build depth - two keys to surviving the SEC gauntlet.

(2) State is coming off their biggest win in years, all right, but they did so with a wretched offense and a good defense - hardly a solid plan for covering a 3 TD spread. You’ve also got to consider the very real possibility of a major letdown game for the Bulldogs here. Plus, the last time the Blazers played at an SEC school, they almost pulled off the upset against the Vols.

Me? I’m gambling on the former scenario. I expect UAB to be fully prepared to lay down as soon as the going gets rough - something they did not do against UT - since they’re now over halfway into what will probably be another losing season. Also, it was just a few weeks ago that State covered a 20 point spread against what most people consider a superior C-USA team, Houston. I think they’ll do it again.

NYC Spot of the Week
I’m changing the name of this segment to allow me to discuss spots in the city that I love that may not qualify as restaurants, per se. This week’s entry, for example, is not so much a restaurant as it is a Japanese grocery store that serves fantastic noodle soups, katsu don and other Japanese lunch fare for about an hour and a half every weekday. It’s called Yagura Japanese Market (http://www.yelp.com/biz/yagura-japanese-market-new-york) and it’s right by the main NY Public Library at 24 E. 41st St. I used to work at a truly terrible job just a few blocks from there and many were the days that I found comfort in a bowl of chicken udon that I would hover over protectively on my lunch break, trying to restore at least a bit of my soul (which, between my awful job and the fact that the Sex and the City movie was being filmed right next to my office for what seemed like 18 months, was being crushed with regularity at that time). So, if your in midtown Manhattan someday and your looking for an affordable, healthy and quality lunch option (no easy task), make sure to hit this spot.

Alabama @ Tennessee +16.5
My least favorite game of the day. Bama’s offense seems to be mired in a major funk lately. Somehow, it’s taken over a season and a half for teams to learn that the only real plan of attack against the Tide is to absolutely sell out to stop the rushing attack and just pray McElroy has an off-day. From a talent perspective, I think it’s pretty plain to see that, under regular circumstances, the Vols wouldn’t have the horses to succeed against the Tide, even using the plan outlined above. Why take them, then? It’s all about mindset and motivation. I’m betting that Tennessee is at a point where they realize they’re not very good and that they don’t have much chance at anything other than a .500 finish. That sounds demoralizing, but it can also be quite liberating - accept the facts and try to make the best of a bad situation. In short, the Vols could play as a team with nothing to lose. This game against the Tide in Knoxville has now become their Super Bowl. I think that will be enough to keep it close.

SOUTH CAROLINA -13 @ Vanderbilt
This is one of those rare lines that sends me scurrying to my SEC news sources to see what I am missing. Good thing too, because I had no idea that Marcus Lattimore is not expected to play this week. Still, that’s reason to drive this spread down from 28 to 20, not all the way down to 13. I know reading too much into the most recent results is a classic gambler’s mistake, but, come on, Vandy was CRUSHED by a 3-3 Georgia team just last weekend! How does even a Lattimore-less Gamecock team get less credit than Georgia? If they played in a vacuum, Carolina would have to be a 20-point favorite. This game will not be played in a vacuum (though Vanderbilt Stadium is a awfully close alternative). This game has the added potential for SC to be angry and bent on avenging last week’s crushing loss to Kentucky. I cannot think of a single rationale for taking the Dores in this one. This is easily my favorite line of the week.

Georgia @ KENTUCKY +4
Quick, give me one reason Georgia is better than Kentucky. Seriously, fill in the blank: Kentucky has shown some promise this year, but I doubt they can overcome Georgia’s overwhelming advantage in/at _______________________. Got nothing? Me either. Exactly how Georgia finds themselves as a road favorite here has to be a mystery even to them. My only guess is that Vegas believes in the “Big Win Hangover” effect much more than I ever suspected, which would explain this and the Mississippi State lines. It makes more sense to me in the State game. They just enjoyed a huge win on the road and are returning home to face an opponent they could not possibly care less about. Plus, they have to cover a 3 TD spread. Here, you have a talented Kentucky team GETTING points at home after a big win, but their opponent is infinitely more interesting than UAB. It’s Georgia - one of the SEC East bullies who has been dominating Kentucky for decades and who is showing real signs of weakness. I’m going to gamble that last week’s win only stirred up with UK team. I’m going to gamble that Randall Cobb’s controversial public relations gambit turns this game’s crowd into the best Lexington has seen in years. I’m taking the home dog with a chip on its shoulder. All sins of the past are forgiven, UK. I’m backing you all the way in this one.

ARKANSAS DOCTOR OFFERING LASER SURGERY TO REFS

2010-10-19T17:31:00.002-04:00

In reaction to Arkansas' understandable whining over the officiating (though the ignore the ball spot on the 4th down run and the phantom holding call to kill AU's drive in the 1st qtr), an Arkansas eye clinic is offering free lasik surgery to all referees.

I'm pretty sure a simpler solution would be for Arkansas to ask their players not to get in the way of the cameras. Or for their defense not to give up those other 51 points.

SEC Picks-Week 7

2010-10-15T18:38:00.000-04:00

In the words of Teddy KGB, "Hanging around, hanging around, kid's got alligator blood, can't get rid of him!" And that's exactly what I've been doing over the past two weeks, just hanging in there with a 6-4 record. Certainly not going to break the bank at this pace, but if slow and steady means having a winning record come season's end, so be it.

Vandy/Dawgs: UGA certainly showed signs of being able to turn things around last week, and even though Aaron Murray and AJ Green are playing really well, I'm not quite sold on the rest of the team's stock just yet. The Dawgs need to prove to me that they can play consistent football on a weekly basis before I even consider wagering on them again. UGA had another running back get arrested this week, so this means they are down to Washaun Ealey (who was benched earlier in the year for fumbling) and true freshman Kendrun Malcome. Looks like UGA might have to rely on a fun-and-gun type offense for this game against the Dores'.

Vandy, on the other hand, has looked surprisingly good (by Vandy standards) during SEC play so far. They gave up 14 points to a potent Ole Miss team on the road, but by the same token, were only able to muster up 3 points at home against LSU. And so is the case with Vanderbilt, they always seem to keep games close by relying on their strong defense, but ultimately find ways to lose games with their offense. I see Vandy's offense stalling a lot during this game, and hopefully their defense can hold UGA to under 35 points. Under 48

Hogs/Aubs: Auburn will no doubt be rockin' Saturday afternoon as the Tigers welcome the "Legend that is Ryan Mallett" to Jordan-Hare Stadium, and to be honest, as much as Mel Kiper is in love with Ryan Mallett's "draftability," the same can't be said for myself. There's no doubt that Mallett has the physical tools to succeed at the next level, but I've seen him make so many careless and errant throws this year that I simply cannot trust him in this spot. I know Auburn's defense isn't anything to write home about, but I get the feeling that Mallett has one boneheaded throw in him, and as soon as Auburn gets that turnover, it will be just enough of a cushion to allow Cam Newton to stay ahead. Tigers -3.5

Cocks/Randall Cobb: I started eyeballing this game as soon as South Carolina finished knocking off the Crimson Tide. This matchup has all the signs of being a classic "trap" game: South Carolina is coming off an emotional win, they are traveling to Lexington to play a mediocre Kentucky team, they are gearing up for Arkansas and Kentucky in a few weeks, yada yada yada. I get it, but the closer I looked at this game, I started to realize that Kentucky's success has all come against finesse teams (Auburn, Ole Miss). In the one game where they faced a physical tough defense, Florida ran them out of the stadium. South Carolina will dominate the line of scrimmage, and with Derrick Locke sitting out with a shoulder injury, I can't see Randall Cobb being able to find the space necessary to keep this game close. South Carolina will put five guys on Randall Cobb and force somebody else to make plays. Is there anybody else on Kentucky that can make plays? That's what I thought. Cocks -5

Miss St/Gators: Dan Mullen makes his return to Gainesville Saturday night where he will surely be reunited with his long lost lover Urban Meyer. These two spent the better part of six years coaching together in Utah and Florida, and Mullen won two National Championships during his tenure as Offensive Coordinator for the Gators. Having spent that much time together, there is no doubt in my mind that Meyer and Mullen know each other's philosophies inside and out, there will be no surprises here on offense. Florida is still longing to find the offensive chemistry they had in year's past, and while Miss St is making strides, they don't quite have the speed to consistently score of Florida's defense yet. Low scoring battle in this one, I don't care who wins. Under 47

Bama/Black Bears: The question on everyone's mind has to be how Bama will respond after getting their jocks handed to them last week. I'm willing to bet that Saban lit a fire under quite a few asses this week, and you can guarantee that similar mistakes will not be made again. Alabama has been a different team at home this year, and I'm certain they will get back to playing smash-mouth football once again. Ole Miss is currently ranked last in the SEC in scoring defense by giving up a whopping 33 points per game! They surrendered close to 50 points each against the juggernauts that are Jacksonville St, Fresno State, and Kentucky. I'm banking on the fact that Bama will be able to put up at least 40 points, and hopefully the Right Reverend will have enough talent on offense to cover the difference. Over 55

ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS SURROUNDING THE NEW SEC WILDLIFE

2010-10-15T14:24:00.003-04:00

While new CRUSH blogger Mitch already touched on Ole Miss' new mascot, I just have two questions:

1. Can we get a back view? I'm curious as to whether Black Bear's grove attire includes sunglasses + Croakies hanging on the back of his neck.

2. This might just be wishful thinking, but what are the odds that frat guys look at Black Bear in his grove attire and recognize the terrible southeastern fad that is coat & tie gameday attire?

A NEW VOICE

2010-10-15T12:29:00.001-04:00

SEC CRUSH has a new writer. We like to pick our talent before they're even ripe. Mitch started his blog Best Damn Conference in the Land just a few weeks ago, and he's now bringing his SEC thoughts and insight to the CRUSH. Mitch is an Alabama fan, but we still like him!

Mitch has already transferred some of his writings to our blog. Check them out below!

Lions, Tigers, and Rebel Black Bears...Oh My?

2010-10-15T12:26:00.002-04:00

Colonel Reb Is Cryin! It's official, Colonel Reb has been laid to rest. Earlier this morning, Ole Miss faculty, students, and alumni voted in "Rebel Black Bear" as the newest mascot of the University of Mississippi. Now I don't know about you, but the few times I've been to Oxford I came across so many bears native to Mississippi that the Grove was virtually a minefield of Yogi droppings. Clearly I'm being sarcastic, but honestly when I saw the news break on ESPN this morning, my first thought was, "This can't be serious, it has to be some sort of Kenny Mayne skit, the 'Rebel Black Bear,' you've got to be kidding me?" Nope.

I was watching PTI earlier today when Wilbon and Kornheiser were discussing the ramifications of the mascot change and Kornheiser made a great point. He said, "What, you change the mascot, and the Bear's name is going to be Rebel? Are you kidding me? The Colonel wasn't the offending part, the name Rebel is the offending part. Why not call the bear Doc or something." He's exactly right. Over the last few years, Ole Miss has gradually tried to distance itself from its racial past by phasing out Colonel Reb, restricting its band from playing Dixie, and banning Confederate flags, yet the school not only continues to call itself the Ole Miss Rebels, but actually has the audacity to name its new mascot "Rebel." What gives, was the point of this whole fiasco not to get rid of all the racial undertones in the first place? Whoever came up with this mascot idea was clearly the same person who thought it would be a good idea to try and market Jordan-Hare Stadium as "The Jungle." Yeah we all know how that decision turned out, this is going to end badly!

On a lighter note, I would now like to invite the mascot runner-up into the studio in order to get his thoughts on the recent decision. He's fun loving, he's entertaining, he's non-controversial, and he was my personal favorite candidate, ladies and gentlemen please welcome...Admiral Ackbar, It's A Trap!

Me: "Admiral, welcome to the studio, thanks for joining me today."
Ackbar: "SHUT YOUR YAP!"

Me: "Hmmm, well let's get right to the point then, what do you think about Ole Miss choosing the Rebel Black Bear as their new mascot?"
Ackbar: "I THINK IT"S CRAP!"

Me: "And rightfully so, I thought you were head and shoulders above the rest of the candidates. Now that the decision has been made, what do you plan on doing next?"
Ackbar: "I'M GOING TO TAKE A NAP!"

Me: "Well I like naps, that certainly sounds like a good plan to me. Now as you know, Ole Miss is certainly known for having beautiful coeds, while you were on campus interviewing for the mascot position what were your impressions of the student body?"
Ackbar: "I'D LIKE TO TAP!"

Me: "Ohhhhoho Admiral, you sand baggin' son of a bitch you! I sure hope your balls aren't itchy?"
Ackbar: "IT'S THE CLAP!"

Me: "I'm no doctor, but you probably need to get that checked out. I hear you're a big football fan, what's your opinion on the game between Ole Miss and Bama coming up this weekend, you think the Rebels can cover the 21 point spread?"
Ackbar: "NO, IT'S A TRAP, IT'S A TRAP, IT'S A TRAP!"

Me: "Well Admiral, I want to thank you for stopping by and spending a few minutes with me today, I hope you'll come back and visit soon."
Ackbar: 'THAT'S A WRAP!"

The Hat Is Truly Mightier Than The Sword

2010-10-15T12:25:00.003-04:00

After watching the Tide get owned on Saturday I took a few days to gather my thoughts about what transpired last weekend. Fortunately in the meantime I bagged another 3-2 record against the bookies to help wash the taste of gamecock out of my mouth, but all in all, it was still only a small consolation.

Tide/Cocks: When a team has national championship aspirations, every weekend becomes like a game seven in the playoffs, and for the first time I can recall in the Saban era, I saw a Bama team get absolutely manhandled on both sides of the ball. I haven't seen a Bama team get dominated at the line of scrimmage this badly since Shula decided to implement the jumbo package! Now with respect to the offensive line, about half of those sacks fell on McElroy's shoulders, and there are conflicting reports as to whether or not the defensive backs even got off the bus, but the bottom line is that Bama got out muscled both physically and mentally, and ultimately South Carolina beat Bama at their own game.

I've been saying all year long that Bama's secondary is suspect. I was worried about the mistakes they made during the Arkansas game, and despite easily winning the Florida game, the Gators were able to move the ball and get inside the 5 yard line three different times. Looking back at my predictions from last weekend, the Gamecocks +7 should have been the easiest pick on the board. I stated after the Auburn game that Alshon Jeffrey is an absolute monster, and outside of Julio Jones, there is nobody on Bama's roster that can match up with him. Bama's secondary made Stephen Garcia look like a young Steve Taneyhill, and when you mix in a large dose of Lattimore you have the recipe for a successful upset. Right now, Bama's defense is simply not good enough to overcome mediocre performances, and until these youngsters can gain the experience and mental toughness necessary to run Saban's schemes, I could very easily see bama losing two more games this season.

A lot has been said about McElwain's play calling recently, and frankly most of the criticism is well deserved. The two games Bama has struggled in this season ironically happen to be the same games where they implemented this pass happy philosophy. Luckily during halftime of the Arkansas game, Bama decided to come out and pound the rock for the second half and what do you know....they dominated, weird how that works? For whatever reason, Bama did not make the same adjustments for the South Carolina game and it ended up costing them a win. You never want to see a player get injured, especially when it's a player the caliber of Julio Jones, but I feel like his injury might be a blessing in disguise. By not having him in the lineup, it will force Bama to get back to what it does best. When Bama is running the football, there is not a team in the country that can match their physicality.

In year's past, South Carolina has been notorious for finding ways to lose close games. They could never quite pull off the big upset, and by the end of the year, they would finish as an average fooball team in a mediocre bowl game (no disrespect to the PapaJohns.com bowl, but Legion Field ain't exactly Pasadena). There was a point right after the Hanks TD catch where I got the feeling that South Carolina was about to implode. They had just given up a safety and a long TD pass, and I remember saying to myself, "Here it comes, South Carolina is about to pull a South Carolina." A few weeks earlier, Arkansas was in the exact same position and they did not have the fortitude to seal the deal, South Carolina deserves all the credit in the world for going out and taking that game by the balls! After this victory, I feel like South Carolina finally turned the corner that its been looking around for the past five years. The Cocks are clearly playing the best football in the East, and I guarantee you will see this team playing in Atlanta.

Corndogs/Gators: First things first, in order to clear up the 4th down play I consulted the NCAA rulebook and did a little investigative work. In the rulebook it clearly states that on 4th down a "fumble" cannot be advanced by anyone other than the player that originally fumbled the ball, but here's the catch, the fake field goal was technically not a "fumble." In the NCAA rulebook, dropping the football can be classified as either "fumbles" or "muffs" (giggle giggle). "Muffs" are essentially fumbles but with one small difference, they occur during the execution of a "backward pass" and can be advanced by any player that recovers the ball. Interestingly the word lateral is not found anywhere in the NCAA rulebook, instead they are simply referred to as "backward pass" and classified as '"muffs." Therefore, examples of "muffs" could be a QB shotgun snap, punt snap, toss sweep to a RB, or in this case a fake field goal toss. So from my understanding of the rules, the refs made the correct call and LSU rightfully won the game.

Now that that is out of the way, can we all agree on the fact that Les Miles is crazy? He's not crazy like, "my girlfriend just broke up with me so I might occasionally check her email or show up at the mall to see who she's dating" crazy. He's just legitimately crazy, he doesn't process reasonable thoughts like a normal human being. After all the criticism he has received, you would think he would try and do something normal for a change. But when it's 4th and 4 and you line up for a field goal to tie the game, then waste your final timeout, only to come right back out and fake said field goal, you are crazy!!! I distinctly remember the announcers saying, "Florida has got to watch out for the fake in this situation," and if you're Urban Meyer you have to realize that Miles is so crazy that he just might be crazy enough to run a fake field goal. I will give him credit for this though, after Toliver caught the pass and took it down to the goal line, Miles did not panic and he managed the situation perfectly. Jefferson spiked the ball, and with no timeouts, you certainly cannot run the ball (although I had convinced myself he was about to send Ridley up the middle). LSU had no other option but to run the fade pass, you cannot role out and risk getting a sack, your QB has to get rid of the ball as soon as possible.

After this game I got to thinking about the coaching responsibilities I talked about last week, and as Herm Edwards so eloquently put it, "You play to win the game!" Looking back, I can't believe I missed this point, it is clearly the most important of all. Sure there are a lot of things about Les Miles that are annoying, like the way he claps with his fingers stretched out and his palms up, the gay Madonna-esque headset he embraced during the 2008 season, or the way that damn hat always seems to be strategically perched atop his head, but whether or not Les Miles is crazy is irrelevant, bottom line is the man wins football games. Right now he is 6-0 and despite his obscure methods, he has won every game he's coached this year. Do I agree with his decisions-No. Do I think his recklessness will eventually cost him games and ultimately his job-Yes. But until that happens, we are just going to have to live with his insanity.

I equate this situation to a hot streak at a craps or blackjack table, your aggressiveness might win you a nice stack of chips, but eventually you are going to press your luck one too many times and bust. Just imagine if the holder's toss is one inch forward or if the ball doesn't bounce straight up to the kicker, LSU loses this game and all of Baton Rouge is burning down Miles' house right now! I think Miles knows his antics will never be fully accepted by the LSU fans, otherwise why would one person so willingly subject themselves to so much scrutiny? Miles is an action junkie, and he lives for the rush of rolling the dice. Right now he is playing with house money and he is hell bent on riding this streak all the way to the end. He clearly has gone past the point of no return, and he obviously doesn't care what anyone thinks about him, so why not continue to hit on 12 every weekend? To steal one from the Chiz playbook, Les Miles is "All-In!" On a side note, were the closeups of Urban Meyer's face during LSU's final drive not priceless? For anybody that reads Bill Simmons' columns, it looks like Meyer spent time perfecting the "Manning Face" during his extended offseason.

Has any team in recent history missed a player more than Florida has missed Tebow? I have to admit that I didn't see this coming at the beginning of the season. I knew there would be a transition period, but I figured Florida had enough athletes to bridge the period of uncertainty. Fact of the matter is that Florida looks lost on offense. They have no continuity or chemistry, Brantley is not a threat to run the option, and right now no one has stepped up to the plate and proved they can lead this offense. If Florida is going to stick with Brantley, they have to commit to being a passing team; if not, have Burton (or someone like him) be your full time QB and do the Tebow thing. I have a feeling Spurrier is going to enjoy his trip to Gainesville this season.

Vols/Dawgs: My gut was right about this game, I knew there was something odd about this line The spread was just way too fishy not to take the Dawgs. I have been impressed with Aaron Murray though. Playing in the SEC is always difficult, but playing in the SEC as a true freshman and on a team that has zero running game is even more difficult. I bet you would never guess, but currently Aaron Murray is ranked third in the SEC in passing yards, that stat is pretty impressive given the fact that he played the majority of the season without AJ Green. It looks like things are finally starting to come together between the hedges, and if Richt could recruit a running back that didn't end up in jail, they might be able to turn this season around.

While there wasn't much to like about the Vols performance last weekend, Justin Hunter did stand out by making some nice catches. Hunter looked like a poor man's version of AJ Green out there, even down to the same long lean body type and control. Hunter is only a freshman, but mark my words, he will be a game changing receiver before his time is up in Knoxvegas.

Cam Newton/Randall Cobb: With all the points that were being put up in this game, are we sure this wasn't a Big XII or Pac 10 matchup? I am not entirely convinced that Oregon and Stanford didn't steal jerseys and play in this game. What can be said about Cam Newton that hasn't already been stated? I cannot remember a single player having this much of an impact through the first six games of their career. Newton is an absolute weapon and he is a threat to take it the distance on any play by beating you on the ground or through the air. No brainer, he's got to be leading the Heisman race through the first six weeks of the season, bar-none! When this guy drops back to pass I hold my breath, because even though I don't know what is about to happen, I know it's going to be electric! I can only imagine this feeling had to be similar to what fans experienced while watching Bo and Herschel run during the 80's.

The same can be said for Randall Cobb. Wow, what an athlete! Just imagine if Cobb had been playing at USC or Texas for the past four years, nobody talks about this guy and I would argue there is not another player in the country that is more important to their team than Cobb is for Kentucky. Some team in the NFL is going to snag one heck of a player, and it certainly wouldn't surprise me to see Belichick draft him with one of the numerous first round picks he's stockplied over the past few years.

Auburn has the horses on offense to compete with anybody in the country, but for the life of me, I can't figure out why this team is not better on defense? Gene Chizik is one of the best defensive minds in the country, this is the same man that orchestrated an undefeated season in 2004 and won the national championship in 2005, so as head coach of the Auburn Tigers why is Chizik not placing more of an emphasis on defense? They have the talent to run the table, but I just can't see them doing it by giving up 40 points a game. The SEC West will be decided during the Iron Bowl, and although Bama's defense has its fair share of issues, I've seen a lot more potential coming from Saban's defense than I have from Chizik's this season.

With the impact that Newton has had on the SEC, I think it's about time we brand him with a well deserved nickname. Seeing as how he rides a scooter around campus, I've heard "Scootin' Cam Newton" being thrown around a lot. Personally I like "Smash and Dash" it seems to fit the bill given his recent history of tossing laptops out of windows and fleeing the scene (thank you, thank you, I'll be here all night, be sure to tip your waitress). Another good weekend of SEC football coming up this weekend, I'm officially putting the Gamecocks on spread upset alert. Coming off an emotional high, having to travel to Lexington and play against a Kentucky team that can score a boatload of points, could be a possible letdown spot. I'll have my picks up by tomorrow night. Hmmm, is that crimson I spy on Cam's rims? You better watch out Aubs, this is how rumors get started on Finebaum!

SEC Picks-Week 6

2010-10-15T12:24:00.002-04:00

No time for long writeups, so I'll give you the quick and dirty! 3-2 last week, not a bad outing. I'll take a winning week any day of the year. As my stats professor used to say, "let's keep pluggin' and chuggin"

Rule #1: Never bet against Vandy basketball at home.
Rule #2: Never bet on a team if you can't name one player on the roster or name their mascot.

Over the years, I've learned rule #1 the hard way, and I don't intend on learning rule #2 this weekend, so that rules out a couple of SEC matchups for this weekend.

Vandy/Eastern Michigan, what???? I can't name one player on the squad including the mascot. In fact, I'm not even sure where the school is located other than being somewhere in Eastern Michigan...We'll scratch this one.

Miss St/Houston: This matchup would qualify except all world QB Case Keenum is hurt and not playing, sadly he's the only guy I've heard of on the team.

Vols/Dawgs: Not sure what the Dawgs have done this season to warrant being an 11 point favorite. My head tells me the Vols keep this close, but this line reeks so bad of rotten fish that I have to take the Dawgs. UGA -11

Hogs/Aggies: Jerrod Johnson is an athletic QB and the Aggies can put up points in a hurry. We all know what Arkansas is capable of doing, Hogs in a shootout. Over 62

Bama/Cocks: After the Arkansas game, there's no way Saban lets Bama come out flat for the third game of this brutal stretch. I see this game being low scoring and Carolina will keep it close for a good portion of the game, but when it comes down to it, Bama will pound the rock and South Carolina will prove to be South Carolina. Cock fans, have fun finishing 8-4, I'll see ya in the Peach Bowl. Tide -6.5

Aubie/Kentuck: Cats have some serious weapons of their own, but Auburn's got too much Cam, I got the Tigers in a high scoring affair. Over 58

LSU/Gators: After the aforementioned rant, I can't believe I'm supporting this goofball, but LSU can play defense and pound the rock (This recipe sound familiar, sure seemed to work last week). Florida is banged up, and until UF stops running the spread option with Brantley and lets him drop back and throw it, they will continue to struggle. LSU +7

It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad Hatter World

2010-10-15T12:19:00.000-04:00

I know the Miles topic has been beat to death so I won't elaborate too much. Instead I'll provide a refresher course so you can look back at some of the Hatters' all time clock management blunders.

In my eyes, during the course of the game, coaches only have a few responsibilities: Get the right players on the field, provide motivation, make in game calls/corrections, and manage the clock. Now if any of us consistently failed to execute half of our job responsibilities on a routine basis, our ass would be on the street so fast!.

Miles has proved that he has no concept of game management, and if I was LSU's AD, I would personally sit Miles down and make him play NCAA on the playstation until his thumbs bled so he could learn how to manage his timeouts. I don't know why LSU fans and administration continue to have patience with this guy. Fool me once, shame on you...fool me 5-6 times, well you get the point. This guy continues to win despite his idiocy, and honestly the longer he continues to win, the worse it's going to be for LSU. There is no doubt in my mind that Miles can recruit, but over the past 3 years I have seen this program continually decline. As long as Miles stays at the helm, I eventually see him turning LSU into a middle tier SEC program. "Have a Grrrrrrrrrreat Day!"

1. LSU-Ole Miss, LSU-Ole Miss Presser
Classic Mad Hatter, clearly calling for the spike and then throwing Jefferson under the bus during the post game presser.

2. LSU-Tenn
I can't get enough of this one, check out the assistant coach trying to grab Miles when he tries to call a timeout after an interception.

3. LSU-Tenn Crazy Finish
This play should all still be fresh in our minds.

4. LSU-Auburn, The Catch
The best part about this play is that LSU still has one timeout left and this is the best call they could come up with, I'll let Blackledge take it from here?

5. LSU-Florida, Fake Field Goal
I had to update the blog and add the most recent episode of the ongoing Mad Hatter Saga. As soon as this season is over I'm taking Miles to Vegas, because he has to be the gutsiest and most lucky human being on the face of the earth. Clearly not a decision you are going to find in Coaching 101 but nonetheless it got the job done. The look on Urban Meyer's face as LSU scores is priceless!

SEC Picks-Week 5

2010-10-15T12:17:00.000-04:00

5-Hat Lock Of The Week: Alabama is clearly the number one team in the land, but lets get real here. Over the past seven years UF is 7-for-7 as a road dog, with two of those wins coming under Urban Meyer (who was also 3-0 as a road dog while at Utah). I don't like Urban, in fact there is not much that I like about the Gators in general, but damn he can coach, his players can run, and they simply get it done in the SEC.

Over the last four years UF is 15-2 ats on the road and have only been beaten once by more than 4 pts. We all know what happened last year in the SEC Championship game, but I believe these Gators have revenge on the brain, and I fear that the Arkansas game might have taken lot out of the Bama guys. If you think about it, in actuality this game really isn't all that important anyway. I would argue that last week's game against Arkansas was much more meaningful simply because it was a division game. The loser of this game is by no means out of it, they will probably just turn around and play each other again in the SEC Championship where it will really count.

Four weeks into the season and already people are writing UF off simply because they haven't looked sharp on offense. Well guess what people, what do you think was going to happen after you lose the greatest college football player in history, a first round offensive lineman, a tight end who is now starting for the Patriots, and your best wideout receiver? Last week Mallet passed for 360 yds, while the Gators put up 300 yards in the air vs a previously undefeated Kentucky team. I believe this UF team started to click on offense last week, and Urban finally figured out who he can trust on offense and who has the ability to make plays (see box score for Trey Burton). Also this team is rested, and UF's D has speed speed speed that Bama hasn't seen yet. I think Bama will win because of their physicality, but by no means is this going to be a blow out. I see a low scoring game, with UF having the extra motivation to keep things close: Gators +8

Additional leans (2.5 Hats): UT +16.5, Vandy +7.5, Ole Miss -3, Colorado +5 (I don't care if AJ Green is back, Dawgs are done this year, and the Rocky Mountain altitude isn't going to provide them any favors)

Fits My Life, Oh So Right...My Dixieland Delight

2010-10-15T12:14:00.000-04:00

I've been wanting to start a blog for sometime now but in the past I have never really found the time to get all my thoughts down in one place. Now that I am working part time at the house and raising our 6 month old son, I am going to try and fill my time by bringing you a weekly analysis of all things SEC. "The Best Damn Conferene In The Land," is proud to join forces with "SEC Crush" and bring you a mixture of previews, reviews, projections, wagering predictions, random thoughts, and everyting in between. So without further adieu, let's take a look back at week 4 in the SEC.

Bama/Hogs: "He's cut, the Russian is Cut!!!" These are the words that popped into my head immediately after Arkansas took two plays to score their first touchdown. Fortunately for Bama, they had Saban as their coach instead of a butch haired Serbian woman, it certainly wasn't pretty, but I'm sure Bama will take an ugly road win against a top 10 SEC team any day of the week.

This was the first time I can recall seeing McElroy struggle personally, and it was nice to see him find the resolve to shrug things off and finish strong. This mentality was obviously the difference in the game, Arkansas was clearly praying for the game to end, they did not have the confidence and belief to go out and make the plays necessary to put this game on ice. I will say this though, Bama's young secondary looked suspect at times and if they come across an opponent who decides not to self implode, I could very easily see this team getting their first loss. Luckily for Bama, they will not have to worry about facing a passing attack like Mallett's unless they meet the Smurf-ville Southpaw in Glendale.

Terrible, terrible, terrible play calling in the first half! Thank the lord Bama's coaching staff is smart enough to realize they could dominate the line of scrimmage in the second half and keep Mallett on the sideline at the same time. When your defense is young and clearly not as good as last year's, why would you be in such a hurry to get them back on the field as soon as possible? Richardson is a great back, but come on, have you watched Ingram the last two games? Ingram clearly has a cutting ability and vision that sets him apart from Richardson, I pity the fool that has to play against these two guys.

Vols/Blazers: In the words of Tone the Bone, "Go Blazers, Go Blazers, Win for UAB!" It's a shame UAB can't recruit a kicker that can do better than 2/7 on his attempts....Who am I kidding, they are lucky to have a kicker that can make 2 kicks at all. In all seriousness though, UAB played hard and I was impressed with their QB, RB, and TE, but UT ought to be ashamed of themselves celebrating like they just won the superbowl. They carried Denarius Moore off the field Rudy style because he beat UAB in overtime, I don't care how hard they played, this is still UAB people!

I've heard good things about Dooley, and in time, I believe he will get UT turned around, but not this season. I was surprisingly impressed with Sims' arm strength, guy has got a cannon to go along with a veteren receiving core, but I'm not sure how many wins that will translate into this season. It's looking like the UT-UGA matchup will decide the winner of the East this year......Psyyyyyyyyyyyych!!!!

UGA/Cowbells: I'm ashamed to say it, but I have to admit I watched the majority of this game on ESPN 3 solely because I have Vick Ballard on my SEC fantasy football team. I have to agree with the consensus that Richt is treading on some seriously thin ice. I know UGA is playing a freshman QB, but that is no excuse, UGA is playing like a team that knows their coach is done, no passion, no desire, no will to win. Herschel himself couldn't save this team, let alone AJ Green coming off suspension. This surprises me, because in year's past, you could always count on UGA to be a tough out, no matter what the circumstances, you knew you were going to face a well prepared team, but you get the feeling that something is just missing this season. The word that comes to mind is "stale", I think this is the same situation Auburn had with Tubs, when a coach has been in the same place for such a long time, I think administration, fans, players, and coaches simply get bored with one another.

On the other hand, I like what I'm seeing from MSU. Mullins has this team playing hard, and their offense makes just enough plays to keep them competitive. MSU plays tough defense and the spread is a fun style to watch! If Mullins can get some decent athletes into his system, I could see Starkville becoming a tough place to play in future years.

LSU/Couch Burners: Since Miles managed to win a national championship with Saban's players in 2007, I have seen this program gradually decline over the past three years. The guy can recruit incredible talent and play stiff defense, but LSU's offense is the most predictable and vanilla I have ever seen. During the week I imagine this is probably how a LSU coaching meeting would go...'Hey let's try running up the middle a couple of times, then run the rollout option with Jefferson to the short side of the field, then on third and long try throwing one down field for a change and see how that works?" Miles and Gottfried need to team up and start a consulting firm to teach people how to get the least amount of production from their talents. Moving on.

Ole Miss/Fresno: Gimmick, Gimmick, Gimmick! All Ole Miss does is run gimmick plays. I don't know why Nutt insists on taking Masoli off the field to run the wildcat when Masoli IS the wildcat. Note to self, McCluster is gone, you might want to keep your best player on the field as much as possible. Given that, their offense has looked explosive, they can put up some points, but most of their receivers are freshmen, so give them time.

Defense is terrible, anytime you give up 40 to Jax State, 40 to fresno, and 28 to Vandy, I'd say that is a bit of a defensive lapse. Until Ole Miss starts putting some sort of emphasis on defense I have no use for this team. Have fun yelling Hotty Toddy in Shreveport this December!

Gators/Kentucky: I think this is the game where things started to click for the Gators. Up to this point, they have looked woefully inept on offense, and Meyer finally decided to wise up and realize that Brantley is not Tebow and he better start getting the ball to one of the thirty guys on the roster that can run a 4.2 forty. Cobb and Locke are two of the most talented guys in the SEC and they couldn't put a dent in UF's defense, so I don't think UF will get blown out next week, but I don't think they will win either. This team is starting to gel on offense and their defense is good as usual, but luckily for Bama, UF hasn't figured out how to throw the ball down field yet. Bama wins it in the trenches!

Barn/Cocks: Both of these teams have been a nice surprise so far this season. Up to this point, USC has looked like the best team in the East, and Auburn has looked very dangerous on offense. I get the feeling Auburn can't keep relying on Cam Newton night in and night out, as goes Cam so do the Tigers. Some team is going to face the Tigers and be hell bent on stopping him from running the ball and force him to throw. Easier said than done, but if it happens, I don't believe the Auburn defense can keep up. So far Auburn has navigated an extremely tough portion of their schedule and I can't see LSU beating them, so as it stands Auburn and Bama might be fishing the Flemish Cap and heading towards the perfect storm. Would the state of Alabama implode if these two teams met in the Iron Bowl undefeated?

Dyer is a good back, he runs hard and should clearly be getting the majority of the carries for Auburn. For all the things that Dyer brings to the table, Fannin is clearly the opposite. How many chances does one player get in order to prove to everyone that he is a sissy. Ok ok, we get it, Fannin likes to fumble and avoid contact whenever possible. Enough of this experiment already!

Why Spurrier decided to go with a freshman for the final drive of the game I will never know? Garcia managed the game extremely well for three qtrs, and proved that he could move the ball and put up points. I find it hard to believe that after a few mistakes in the 4th qtr, you are better served putting the game in the hands of a freshman, rather than going with an experienced junior QB, but what do I know, I don't throw visors.

On a side note, is there a better receiver in the SEC than Alshon Jeffrey, dude is gonna be a beast in the league, can you say Terrell Owens with hands? Lattimore didn't have a particularly good game statistically, but this guy is the real deal, so far this season he is one of the best freshmen I have ever seen! Florida and Carolina are clearly the class of the East.

I'll get some thoughts together for the upcoming slate of week 5 games, including the highly anticipated #1 Crimson Tide Vs. #7 Gators, which really doesn't mean that much seeing as how they'll just meet again in the SEC Championship game.

VCS 2010 - Week 3

2010-09-16T10:59:00.012-04:00

I apologize for not getting my picks column up last week. It’s a shame too, but it was a spectacularly successful week for me on the gambling front...honestly, it was! If Ole Miss had held on to their lead against Tulane, I would have pulled off the sweep. Again, sorry. I plan on making it up to you this week with a few new segments sprinkled among my usual sterling gambling advice. I hope that makes up for all the money you failed to win last weekend.

Arkansas @ GEORGIA -2.5
It’s odd to enter week 3 and still know absolutely nothing about a team, but that’s where we find ourselves with the preseason darling Razorbacks. Their, um, creative scheduling has provided zero useful information regarding the big questions everyone has had about them since the end of last year: Will they have a more productive running game? Will Mallet recover sufficiently from his off-season injury? Is their defense going to be capable offering more resistance than the wet-toilet-paper version of last year’s unit? We still have no idea. Sure, their rushing attack still looks mediocre (averaging a very average 147.5 yards/game) and Mallet still looks spectacular, if occasionally unpredictable (6 TDs and 2 INTs), but the total lack of competition they’ve faced could be falsely exaggerating that data in either direction.

Georgia, on the other hand, we know a little more about. New QB Murray has shown promise, but is still a rookie, and is stuck leading an attack without many bullets, what with AJ Greene still serving his absurd suspension for another 2 weeks. Still, if offense is your problem, then facing this Arkansas defense is quite possibly the perfect solution. I look for Murray and Washaun Ealey to have their biggest game yet. As for defense, Georgia’s was as big a question for their team as Arkansas’s was for theirs, but we’ve seen enough from Georgia’s unit to suggest they have made at least some improvement.

Not convinced? Okay, I have an interesting stat for you. As we all know, Arkansas is easily the most isolated of all the SEC schools - stranded as it is in the nether land of northeast Arkansas. While that distance has always been cited as part of the home-field advantage for the Hogs, I’ve always wondered if that extra travel distance could work against Arkansas when they went on the road to face their most far-flung opponents, so I checked it out. Since 2005, the Hogs have played 10 games further than 600 miles from Fayetteville. That’s a long haul. That range includes 8 SEC games against Tennessee (1), South Carolina (2), Florida (2) and Georgia (1), Auburn (1) and Kentucky (1), as well as 2 non-conference opponents. Their record in those 10 games: 2-8. This week, they are in Athens (distance: 770 miles), facing a Georgia team that is more-battle tested and absolutely desperate not to lose another SEC game. Give me the Bulldogs.

Vanderbilt @ OLE MISS -12
The two worst teams in the league face off in Oxford this weekend in-front of what I’m guessing will NOT be a capacity crowd. Normally, I wouldn’t lay this many points in a game between two teams that are ranked right next to each other in the SEC power poll, but, well, have you seen Vandy this year? They are depressingly, humiliatingly, eye-gougingly bad. I texted my Vandy friend, Jeremy, that watching the Dores was enough to make me question my decision to follow college football at all, much less obsess over it every year. I was only about 10% joking. He responded with a message so suicidal that I actually worried for him. It is not a happy time in Doreland.

The point is, I’m not backing this Vandy team until the spreads get up into the 4 TD area. The Rebels, on the other hand, are just about ready to start their Nutt-patented secret rise from bottom-dweller to dangerous upset threat that he used to pull at Arkansas just about every other year. Masoli is only going to get better and once they figure out who their other best players are on offense (a process which usually takes Nutt about 4-5 weeks - read: McCluster, 2009 and McFadden, 2006), they’ll be capable of beating just about anyone on any given week.

ALABAMA -24 @ Duke
This spread surprised me when I saw it and then I saw that a disconcerting number of people are actually picking this game to be close. I’m still confused. What about a 1-1 Duke team, who had a close-ish win over Elon and gave up 54 points to Wake Forest, makes anyone think this will be anything other than a 49-10 annihilation? I do not have an answer for that. Alabama has looked nothing short of spectacular in their two wins this season. They are the closest thing the SEC has right now to a complete team, with almost no question marks in any phase of the game. If they DON’T win this one by 4 TDs, it will be the first sign of weakness they’ve showed all season. I’m not betting my money on that.

NYC Restaurant of the Week
In an effort to add a few new non-football related features to this column, I’ve decided to revive the restaurant review section I use to include in the original incarnation of the VCS. However, instead of a highlighting a fledgling Memphis eatery, I’ll be filling you in on some of my favorite New York joints that I have discovered over the past five years. I know most of you won’t care about New York restaurants, but it’s always the first thing people ask me when they visit, so just file this away until business or pleasure brings you up here and you’ll have a head start on some delicious dining expereince.

This week’s entry was easy. I don’t know if I’d call it my favorite NYC restaurant (I’m notoriously moody and hate selecting an all-time favorite), but if I had only one more meal in New York, I’d probably choose to have it at Kittichai. It’s description as a modern/gourmet Thai restaurant is both accurate and unnecessarily intimidating. There’s something here for almost every palate and I’ve never sent anyone here who has come away disappointed. I would eat literally everything on the menu, but the standouts for me are the chili-smoked hanger steak, the chicken green curry and the chocolate baby back ribs. I know the latter sounds weird, but I would put my Memphis Rib Expert credibility on the line for those bad boys. They’re that good. On top of the awesome food, the place is just flat-out cool. It has just the right about of a NYC-scene feel, without feeling uncomfortable or phony. The awesome house cocktails are a fantastic bonus to what is already a pretty amazing dining experience. As a topper, it’s still inexplicably just below the radar of tourists, the B&T crowd and even most New Yorkers, so you can usually get a reservation without much hassle. If your ever in Manhattan, I strongly recommend you check it out.

FLORIDA -14 @ Tennessee
I’ve been 50/50 on this one all week, but I finally came down on the Gator’s side when I considered the anti-homefield advantage the Vols might be facing after the shellacking they took last week. I had a wide assortment of reactions to Oregon’s thumping of the Vols. The SEC fan in me was upset that a non-conference opponent was able to come into one our stadiums and embarrass one of our members so thoroughly. The gambler in me was reasonably happy, considering I had made the Ducks -12 the lynchpin of almost every one of my parlays last weekend, but not so happy as to overcome the pain of SEC fan in me was feeling. However, the Tennessean in me - the one who spent over 21 years being tortured by the most underratedly obnoxious fans on the planet - was positively ecstatic at seeing the mighty, enormous Neyland Stadium positively barren by the middle of the 3rd quarter. The frequent shots of miserable Vol fans (some even crying!) was a bonus I could not resist enjoying.

Still, no one wants to see a one-time strong SEC program sink too far down the well, so let’s all hope Tennessee can rebound from whatever is going to happen to them this year. Note how I assume a bad season this year is just a foregone conclusion for these Vols. I just can’t see how this team finished with 6 wins. True, thus far, Simms has looked better than anyone expected, but he has yet to face an SEC defense and is still only averaging 178 ypg. Their rushing attack has been quite good, but, again, that’s without facing an SEC defense and they rung up about 3/4 of their yardage against UT-Martin. Their defense looks capable, if not terribly talented (When a walk-on senior LB is your best player, that’s not a good sign. Trust me, I witnessed the Alex Lincoln years at Auburn). I’m still withholding judgment on Dooley, who, so far, has made more news for his odd off-field behavior and comments than anything his team has done on the field (a disturbing parallel with a certain previous UT coach).

Florida has looks far from great, but that’s mostly due to their offense, which I think will improve all year, even if it never looks great. They probably won’t need much from that unit in this game, anyway. I don’t see this deflated Vol team putting up too much of a fight. If the Gators’ offense can give them 21 points, their defense and special teams will probably be able to take care of the rest.

Akron @ KENTUCKY -25
Whatever. Of course, I know absolutely nothing about Akron (other than that their mascot is the Zips, which was taken from the name of an apparently very popular rubber shoe in 1925), but I have been quite impressed with what I’ve seen from Kentucky this year. With elite playmakers Randall Cobb and Derrick Locke at their disposal, I expect this to be the best Wildcat offense since the heady days of Hal Mumme and Mike Leach. I doubt their defense will be good enough for them to win more than maybe 6 games, but the games they do win, they could win very big. This is going to be one of those games.

MISSISSIPPI STATE +8 @ Lsu
It’s only week 2 and already LSU has captured the title of my most hated SEC team of the season. They’re positively brutal to watch, they have the most overrated QB in the conference (if not the nation), and, of course, they are coached by VCS Enemy #1, Lucky Les Miles. Everyone has been waiting for Miles’ ridiculous luck to run out, but there’s no sign that it will happen any time soon. This year, he’s already gotten to face a UNC team that was completely gutted by suspensions mere days before the game (and he still almost managed to blow that one) and he’s gotten to burn one his SEC East games and SEC road games with a positively delightful trip to Nashville to face the above-disparaged Commodores. He’s been torturing me since Day 1 of his arrival in Baton Rouge, a trend I also see no reason to expect to end any time soon.

So, with that grain of salt fully digested, I’ll give you my analysis of this game. LSU sucks. They really, really do. They have weapons on offense (alot of weapons, in fact), but absolutely no plan on how to effectively utilize them and are saddled with a QB who flat-out refuses to share the wealth with the other position players. Last week, I went all Sports Guy on my Twitter followers and referred Jefferson to Gilbert Arenas - gets good stats, but only because he’s completely selfish and, ultimately, he hurts his team. I really dislike this team. Keeping Gary Crowton as offensive coordinator might be the biggest mistake that Miles has made yet (really saying something) and might end up costing both of them their jobs at year’s end (says quick prayer...).

State, on the other hand, might be the most likable team in the league...outside of my Auburn Tigers, of course. They’re an up-and-coming squad that plays hard and employs creative schemes on both sides of the ball to give them whatever advantage they can in order to make up for the talent gap they usually face in league play. I hate that this game is in Baton Rouge, but if the Bulldogs are not too deflated from their close loss to Auburn last Thursday (apparently a very real possibility), I like them to keep this one ugly and close, with an outside chance to take the thing outright.

KEVIN OR CATHY???

In honor of the first meeting of the SECFFL season between my Space Monkeys and Kevin Westbrook's Finch Vanilla, I am proud to introduce a new semi-regular segment of the VCS column that I think will become easily the most popular segment I've ever invented. It's simple: First, I'll give you two quotes. Then, you have to guess which one was taken from that icon of middle-age women everywhere (and Exhibit A in the argument that feminism is dead), Cathy, and one which was taken from an email or tweet from our very own Kevin Westbrook. It will be much harder than you think. Here we go!

1. It takes me an hour to get ready when all I have to do is find the two halves of the suit!!

2. I've been waiting at KFC for 45 min for free food thanks to an Oprah show promotion. I hate you Oprah!!

Answers will be found in next week's column!!

Clemson @ AUBURN -7
So, Auburn’s given us two performances: one loaded with the expected offensive fireworks and one with a surprising, even startling, defensive performance. Which team will show up this week? I’m guessing it will be something closer to the former, but the confidence the defence must have gained last week against Mississippi State could go a long way to improving a unit most thought would be the downfall of this year’s Auburn team. Personally, I’d expect either team to cover this spread against a Clemson team that (A) has played absolutely no one so far this year, meaning that their first test of the year is coming on the road against a member of the SEC Big 6 and (B) hails from the truly woeful ACC. With the news that Auburn plans to ratchet up their pace on offense, something they refused to do last week, and also plans to involve more of its talented freshman at the skill positions, it’s hard to see how Clemson can expect to hold them under 30 points or so. I don’t know much about Clemson, but I just don’t see them putting up enough points in Jordan-Hare to keep up with Cam & Company.

Now, I’m not crazy enough to gamble on this game. Remember, Auburn is my team, which means that I don’t need to gamble on their games in order have a rooting interest. Unfortunately, it also means that I’ve witnessed more than my fair share of inexplicable letdowns against non-conference opponents over the last decade or so. So, consider yourself warned. Auburn should win this game. They should cover a 1-TD spread. They should score plenty of points. I’m just not going to bet on it.

VCS 2010 Week 2 - Special Thursday Edition

2010-09-09T16:38:00.002-04:00

AUBURN -1 @ Mississippi St.

Before we get to the analysis, let's take a minute to appreciate the glory that is the 2010 SEC West. Here, we have the team that everyone picked to finish dead last in the division hosting a team that many picked to win the division and the spread started at only 3 points and has moved DOWN to 1 as off this afternoon. Best vs. Worst and the spread is only 1 freaking point! And, let's not forget, this is only week 2! It's not as if we're in week 10 and have learned a great deal about either team since the preseason predictions were made. We know virtually nothing about either of these teams that we did not know two weeks ago and yet many are finding it impossible to find much of a flaw in either squad. If that's not a testament to the shear awesomeness of the SEC West this season, then I don't know what it is. If the winner of this division (be it an undefeated team or a 1-loss team or even a 2-loss team) doesn't not play for the national title, then we will have the gravest injustice in college football since 2004. The mere thought of it makes me angry. Let's not dwell on it another moment. Instead, let's look at tonight's game.

In many ways, Auburn and Mississippi State are the same team. Both feature young, second-year coaches who have energized their respective fanbases in ways no one thought possible when they were hired. Both have creative offenses featuring new quarterbacks who everyone feels are an improvement over last year's quarterbacks. Both teams have a myriad of offensive weapons not lately found outside of Gainesville or Baton Rouge. Both teams will field defenses with major question marks in both the personnel and strategy departments. Both teams are coming off blowouts of non-conference cupcake opponents which probably told us nothing about either team - unless they told us nearly everything, which depends on who you ask. So, if the two teams are so similar, then why take an Auburn team giving points (or a point, such as it is) over a Bulldog team playing at home in the always dangerous Thursday night game? At the risk of sounding ridiculously simplistic, I'm going to turn to my old fallback rule: Auburn is simply more talented. I've spent an embarrassing amount of time going over these two teams this past week: player by player, unit by unit. In that analysis, I was hard pressed to find any area where Mississippi State holds the advantage - either in talent or experience. The closest calls? Defensive lines and secondaries. State might have a slight edge in either or both. The problem is that neither team's units appear particularly strong at all. Does it matter if one team's D-line is better than their opponent's if one is a C and the other is a C-? How great an advantage does that really confer? I'm guessing not very much, especially in a game that will almost certainly be a shootout. Given their talent and newfound depth, I just feel Auburn has more bullets.

It will be a good game and State could certainly find themselves with a shot to win it (especially if the turnovers break their way), but one of my rules has always been, when in doubt, go with talent. There's an exception to this rule if the more talented team suffers under a truly incompetent coach (call it the Miles Exception), but that doesn't apply here. I say it will be a high-scoring affair with Auburn simply out-pacing the Bulldogs in something like a 45-31 victory.

VCS 2010 - Week 1

2010-09-03T17:28:00.001-04:00

OK, so I’m not exactly off to the most auspicious start. I probably should have warned you that I have not picked a South Carolina game correctly in roughly 5 years. I’ve been sensing that Spurrier has long been jealous of my blood feud with Rich Brooks and, now that I have finally vanquished Brooks, he’s stepping up to be my next mortal enemy. He’s off to an excellent start. Unfortunately for him, I was fully aware of my vulnerability to his Gamecocks and I refrained from any gambling action on last night’s game. Sorry I didn’t mention that yesterday. I’ll see you next week, Stevie.

Miami (OH) @ Florida -36
UL Lafayette @ Georgia -28
Arkansas St. +31 @ Auburn
San Jose St. +37.5 @ Alabama
Blah, blah, blah. If you can name one player from any of these four opponents off the top of your head, feel free to gamble on these games. The only two I would really consider wagering on are the Georgia and Auburn games. Georgia absolutely has to get off to a fast start and needs to break in their rookie QB as soon as possible with a tough SEC games looming next week against S. Carolina. I figure they’ll press early and often in this one and aim for a 41-10 type of rout. Still, you have to wonder how much their D has improved, something which no one knows yet. It’s also possible they’ll try to baby Murray early in the season which, combined with the absence of Ealey, could render their offensive incredibly conservative. I say this one is a no-go.

Taking the points against Auburn I feel a little better about. Cam Newton has certainly been hyped beyond belief, but he’s still a rookie QB. I also feel that Auburn will take this opportunity to see which freshman from their heralded 2010 class will be able to contribute this season. Combine that with the fact that their going up against an Arkansas St. that has given more than their fair share of scares to BCS opponents, and I think 31 is too many points to lay.

Kentucky -3 @ Louisville
Truth be told, I can’t name a player on Louisville’s team either, but I’m picking Kentucky here for a variety of reasons. First, they bring back everyone an offense that performed quite ably last year when healthy. There are expected to perform well below last year’s standards on defense where they lost their 3 best players. Still, Louisville is still suffering from the ravages of the Kragthorpe era and, as much as I like Charlie Strong for the rebuilding job, he’s going to need more than one off-season to stack this team with the talent they’ll need to compete. Mostly, though, I’m taking Kentucky here because Rich Brooks is finally gone (!!!) and I have decided to make a concerted effort to reach out to new coach Joker Phillips with an olive branch made of my gambling dollars. Hopefully, the two of us can join together and we can forge a peaceful and prosperous partnership. He can make money for me and...well I’m not sure what I can offer him, but I will promise to refrain from blasting him and his ridiculous name in this column. Joker, let’s start this new era with style. Yes We Can!

Memphis +21 @ Mississippi St.
Everyone, including yours truly, seems to be expecting considerably improvement in, if not the win totals, then at least the quality of play from Mississippi St. this season. I’m just now realizing that I do not understand exactly why. They’ve lost their two most important offensive players from last season (Dixon and Lee). Essentially, that means that they could likely be worse in BOTH passing and rushing this season - never good. They have a new, unproven defensive coordinator who will be overseeing a unit that brings back plenty of starters, but a debatable amount of talent. So, why all the optimism? As far as I can tell, it seems to be based on two things: (1) The unrelenting positivity and enthusiasm of head coach Dan Mullen and (2) the drubbing of Ole Miss in last season’s finale.

The second reason is fun to think about, but it was just one game, so let’s not let it color our opinions too much. The first reason is great and makes a lot of sense. However, in my entire football-watching career, I’ve never seen a coach’s attitude, no matter how ebullient, magically enable his QB to properly read a coverage or throw an accurate pass. I’ve never seen the collective positivity of a fanbase, no matter how rabid, empower a linebacker cover a wide receiver who’s faster and more agile than he is. Optimism is great, but it alone cannot make up for a lack of talent and/or experience. I believe Mullen will eventually get his team there, but I think expectations, including my own, are outstripping reality a bit at this point.

So, when it came to this week’s game against Memphis, I felt it was wise to throttle back the enthusiasm just a bit. When I did that, I simply did not feel comfortable laying 3 touchdowns. Sure, most people have Memphis picked to finish near the bottom of the CUSA, but they have a new, enthusiastic coach and all new schemes that no one has had a chance to prepare for. Plus, it looks like their going to start a QB with the greatest QB name I’ve heard in a long time, Cannon Smith (he’s also the son of Fred Smith, my Dad’s boss, so, yeah, he’s awesome).

Northwestern -5.5 @ Vanderbilt
Unfortunately, due to last year’s Outback Bowl, or as it’s known in Auburn circles, the Rasputin Bowl, I am painfully familiar with several of the names of Northwestern players. I know that the big one, Kafka, is gone, but something tells me it almost doesn’t matter who suits up for this team. They win with scheme and intelligence, which is exactly what I have been encouraging their opponent this week to do since I started writing this column. I’ll make my case simply again: Vanderbilt will NEVER have a talent advantage in the SEC. Therefore, they must make up for their talent deficit by creating a schematic advantage - implementing schemes on both sides of the ball (but especially on offense) that are so creative and different from what other teams run that opposing defenses will have trouble adjusting to them for the one week they play the Dores. Maybe if Northwestern beats them badly enough, they’ll finally listen to me and go hire someone who can install, say, the flexbone system that Georgia Tech has been decimating opponents with the last few seasons. I see the bad beating coming, but I doubt there will be any lessons learned.

North Carolina vs. LSU -7.5
Talk about a game that impossible to forecast. If you haven’t heard by now, North Carolina will be without 13 players for this game, many of them defensive starters. Obviously, this creates some confusion over exactly who will be playing in the game. Add this to total unpredictability (some would say unreliability) of any team coached by Lucky Les Miles and you’ve got a game that’s nearly impossible to call. Still, I’m comforted by one thing: Vegas is in the same boat as the rest of us. This line started the week with UNC a 3.5 FAVORITE. That’s an 11-point swing in 4 days, a truly unprecedented occurrence. Me? I simply cannot resist jumping on the pile when Vegas is panicked. I’d just feel too stupid being left out of what could be the easiest call of the year. I try to imagine what would happen if 8 of Auburn’s defensive starters were ruled ineligible for a big game. There’d be tears and cursing, sure, but I’m almost certain I’d also immediately check the line to see if I could at least mitigate the pain with a little heretical gambling action. The point is, you just HAVE to go against a team in UNC’s condition. In fact, I’m so determined not to miss out on the fun that I’m making this pick this season’s first Luck of the Irish Pot O' Gold Pick of the Week.

WEEK 11 VCS - Enjoy It While It Lasts

2009-11-13T17:37:00.001-05:00

Business is just booming over here at the VCS. A 3-0-1 run last weekend (damn you, LSU/Alabama officials!!!) has me flush and ready for an exciting late-season run. I still can't believe how many irrelevant games are being played this late in the year (Louisiana Tech @ LSU -24.5 and Troy @ ARKANSAS -13.5 will not be up for discussion this week), but our Week 11 slate is certainly much richer than we had last week (even if it turn into one of the most surprisingly enjoyable weekends of the year - Navy over Notre Dame, the downfalls of Iowa and Oregon, the aforementioned unbeaten gambling run). So, let's enjoy the sweet gift that is college football while we still have it. Don't let the ill fortunes of your particular team or the officiating get you down. The greatest season of the year is coming to a close. Let's cherish every minute together. On to this week's picks:

TENNESSEE +4.5 @ Ole Miss (3)
I do not believe Tennessee has undergone a miraculous offensive resurgence of late (Memphis, South Carolina and Georgia do not exactly constitute tough defensive opposition), but I will go out on the ledge to say they have undergone something of a offensive awakening (that is, they have progressed from "comatose" to "recently awaken" - still stumbling about looking for their glasses and in need of a big cup of coffee). It's a crafty plan by Kiffin to artificially inflate the stats of his weakest link (Crompton, if it needed to be said) against the Vols' weakest opponents (16 of his 21 TDs have come against Western Kentucky, Georgia, Ohio and Memphis) - a strategy I've endorsed in this column many times before. Smart coaches use games against weaker opponents to improve their weakest areas. This develops you into a much more well-rounded team and bolsters the confidence of the players involved - an especially welcome benefit when it comes to quarterbacks. The opposite strategy (we'll call this the Tuberville plan) of simply relying on the one thing you do well to build you a lead and then subbing out all of your starters - who have gained absolute nothing from the experience - is wasteful, inefficient and bound to leave your team in hot water once they finally face a decent defense. Kiffin has created an environment that allows his players to believe they have a shot against anyone, which is quite an accomplishment and probably the nicest thing I'll ever say about him.

Ole Miss strikes me as a team headed in the opposite direction. Their season has been a utter disappointment and their offense, despite returning almost every relevant piece from last year's unit, has yet to find an identity or consistent source of production. A great deal of this is due to their dreadful offensive line play, which is a problem, because it's the most difficult aspect of offensive play to correct mid-season. That's bad news against a Tennessee defense that only seems to get better week to week. Because of their pitiful schedule, Ole Miss still needs one more win to become bowl-eligible despite being 6-3 (only one victory over a I-AA opponent can count towards bowl eligibility, which should tell you all you need to know about the Rebel's non-conference slate). Personally, I think it will come down to the Egg Bowl.

Kentucky @ VANDERBILT +3 (1)
Blah, blah, blah. Same game every year. Kentucky is probably a little better than Vandy, but no one's sure how much their injuries are going to slow them down. The Cats probably have to have this one to become bowl eligible, but apparently that doesn't matter much to anyone, because EVERY TIME I've followed that logic to make a pick, it's burned me. For some odd reason, the prospect of spending Christmas vacation in Birmingham or, ugh, Shreveport instead of at home with their friends and families just doesn't light a fire under these kids like you'd think it would. Who'd have thought that? Anyway, with no idea what to do, I'll take the home dog. Picking against Rich Brooks is always fun, too.

Florida @ SOUTH CAROLINA +16 (2)
I'm sticking with my plan of taking the points in any SEC game with a spread larger than 2 touchdowns. I told you last week that Florida's offensive explosion against UGA was a mirage and I was proven correct by their 375-yard, 27 points, much closer than it sounds victory over Vandy. Now, they travel to Columbia to play a South Carolina team that has been woefully unimpressive as of late, but gets to return home after two weeks on the road and is due for a bounce-back performance against a Florida team that has struggled to put nearly everyone away. Throw in Spurrier's rapidly deteriorating, but probably still existent, cache and I think this one stays uncomfortably close for the Gators.

Alabama @ MISSISSIPPI STATE +12
Here, I'm sticking with my other plan of taking the points against Bama for the rest of the season, which would have me on quite the win streak if not for that officiating abortion against LSU, which allowed the Tide that undeserved field goal which caused a push on the 9-point spread (the most under-reported aspect of that particular controversy and the only thing that kept me from being perfect last weekend -- I still think Rich Brooks was involved somehow).

That's what I had written before I asked the opinion of Eddie, my sole brother and long-suffering State fan. "Nope." he said, "We won't be able to run on them. It will be close, something like 24-14 going into the 4th and then they'll break a long run and that will be it." His voice was the perfect picture of confidence and resolution. Who am I to doubt such earnest sentiments from such a true fan? So,...

ALABAMA -12 @ Mississippi State (2)
There, that feels better. Eddie's reasoning actually makes a lot of sense and, when I think about it, a 12-point spread is low enough that it seems Vegas has learned from their mistakes of week's past and it dropping the lines in Alabama games. I have little doubt that two or three weeks ago this line would have been in the 20-28 point range and would have been a layup for astute gamblers like myself. Now, they've dropped the line a score or so and are hoping that no one will notice and just keep on taking the points.

It makes sense from a football perspective as well, I just cannot conceive of any way State will be able to generate consistent gains offensively. That will leave Bama with plenty of chances to find some combination to unlock a their offense and, just as Eddie predicted, a few big plays late will put this one out of reach. 31-13 feels about right to me.

AUBURN +4 @ Georgia (1)
I hate when the Auburn game is the clearly War Games bet of the weekend, but that's the case here. Georgia is dangerous. Always beware of incredibly talented teams that have underperformed for an extended period of time. They always pick the moment they look most vulnerable to put it all together and ruin enterprising gamblers everywhere. Both teams are pretty close to terrible on defense, but while Auburn's struggles are easily explained (very thin, both in depth and talent and playing opposite a fast-paced offense that forces them to play an incredible number of snaps), Georgia's struggles are much harder to understand. They have recruited well for years and don't have anything near the depth issues Auburn has had this year. They also are not playing opposite the type of offense that Auburn is. One has to assume that their recruiting, while highly regarded by the experts, was often off the mark and that their coaching, for whatever reason, has failed to properly motivate/prepare their charges for the tasks at hand. From a gambling standpoint, that's pretty terrifying. There's simply no way to know if and when that talent is finally going to mesh together and take their performance to the next level.

Why take Auburn? Well, in a game this uncertain, I like to have the points, even it is only 4 points. Plus, this is Week 11. I just feel like if Georgia's talent and coaching were capable of clicking as I discussed above, then we would have seen it happen at some point this season. We haven't. So, while Georgia is probably capable of being the better team, I don't trust them to actually achieve that potential. I'll take an Auburn team that believes it has a chance to finish strong over a Georgia team that, at this point, has to be terrified they might not even get to a bowl game.

VCS - WEEK 10: Short by no fault of my own

2009-11-06T14:42:00.000-05:00

I am sure that sometime about three months from now, I will deeply regret saying or even thinking this, but I am considering skipping this week's slate of SEC action. This is not due to some change of heart on my part - a realignment of my values so that SEC football does not compete with my friends, family and faith for my attention. I'd never let that happen. No, this is the fault of the spineless and unimaginative schedule-makers who currently pollute our conference and who have given us games involving Furman, Tennessee Tech, Eastern Kentucky and Northern Arizona in the same week. They've also given us Memphis, but compared to the rest of the slate, that choice of opponent qualifies as something tantamount calling out the late-70s Steelers. Who thought it was a good idea to schedule these patsies at all, much less all in the same weekend? And these aren't early season warm-up games either - this is November! The primest of all football primetimes! Baseball is over, the conference and national title hunts are in full swing - there is no better football time on the calendar. Why are we doing this? Please don't tell me it's for Homecoming. Is there any more antiquated and pointless concept than a major college football program designating one particular weekend as a "Homecoming" that necessitates the scheduling of a woe-fully over-matched opponent so as not to offend the delicate sensibilities of the returning alumni? Most SEC teams have 8 home football games a year. That's 8 precious opportunities each year to visit our alma maters to see our football teams. Are you seriously telling me we need to specially designate one particular weekend to draw alumni back to campus and, in order to be successful, we have to schedule the most unwatchable game possible for them to see? This is an embarrassment and an abomination. Worst of all, it seriously limits our gambling opportunities! Where is the outrage? Where are the protests? I, for one, am inconsolable. We are so near the end the college football season. I just want to immerse myself in it as much as possible before it leaves me for what always seems like forever. I just want to create a few memories to help tide me over through the off-season of death and the lords of the game give me a slate so unwatchable it single-handedly makes the most compelling argument in favor of pro football I've ever heard.

That paragraph made me very angry. It's time to let go of the bitterness over what we do not have this weekend and instead focus on the few bright spots available to us. I'll even throw in the Memphis/UT game, even if I have next to zero insight to offer into that match-up. These are desperate times, indeed. As always, my pick is in CAPS:

South Carolina @ ARKANSAS -5.5 (2)
Probably the two greatest enigmas in the SEC face off in Fayetteville this weekend and, trust me, the location is the only reason behind my selection. Spurrier seems intent on continuing his run of fielding the most baffling team in the SEC. Arkansas is coming off what can only be called an embarrassing showing against Ole Miss two weekends ago. I don't trust either one of these teams, so I'm going with the home team, who, luckily for me, is also the more talented team. There's no reason why the consistently middling South Carolina offense should be able to keep pace with this Arkansas attack, except, perhaps, for the fact that they get to face the, um, underwhelming Arkansas defense (last in the conference in total D, 40 yards from the second to last team). To me, this looks like a contest between one team that is terrible on offense and slightly above average on defense (South Carolina) and a team who is fantastic on offense and terrible on defense (Arkansas). When in doubt, take the team that is better at what they do well, especially if they're at home.

LSU +9 @ Alabama (2)
Most people will tell you that LSU is the most overrated team in the SEC this year. Those people are largely correct. The catch is that they are also one of the most talented teams in the SEC this year (I'd put them second behind Florida). How does the second most talented team in the SEC become the most overrated? Just add a healthy sprinkling of Lucky Les Miles, that's how. Les Miles: Guaranteed to have your team operating at about 75% of its potential or your money back! As you may be able to tell, I am not a fan of Mr. Miles coaching acumen. Still, that son of a bitch is lucky. I'd wager that no coach is SEC history has laughed in the face of the logic gods more often and, not only gotten away with it, but somehow prospered. For once, I want to have that luck working my way.

Of course, this pick also has something to do with the fact that I have a hard time conceiving how Alabama will cover a two-score spread when they are currently unable to complete the tricky football maneuver called the forward pass. McElroy has been living dangerously for weeks now - getting by first on his rushing game and defense and now by his defense alone. I can't see any reason this game will not mirror Bama's latest effort against Tennessee. If anything, LSU boasts considerably more talent than Tennessee and now has access to the Vol gameplan that shut down Alabama's previously unstoppable rushing attack. Whoops, did I just insinuate competence on the part of the LSU coaches? My bad. Still, this one has 21-17 written all over it.

Memphis @ TENNESSEE -26 (1)
Like I said, I have nothing to say here. Memphis, I have heard, is pretty terrible and just looking for a place to lay down and die. Knoxville seems like as good a place as any to do that. I know I have, on more than one occasion, found myself in Knoxville thinking, "I wish I could die." Add to that a Tennessee team that seems to have it's mojo back just in time for the Vols annual November "surge" against non-conference cupcake X, Vandy and Kentucky and I think this one will be over early...and that Kiffin will keep scoring anyway.

VANDERBILT +33.5 @ Florida (3)
This has to be one of the more absurd lines of the year. The commentators in Florida's game last week kept proclaiming that the Gators had finally "found their offense." No doubt. Of course a lot of teams have "found their offense" against a Georgia defense that has allowed more points than any other in the league. A lot. Like, all of them. Remember, this is the defense that allowed the second-worst scoring team in the league, South Carolina, to hang 37 on the board early this year. This is the defense that somehow, some way gave Jonathan Freaking Crompton his groove back (or, more accurately, gave him his groove for the very first time in his life). Finding your offense against that defense is not an achievement, it's practically an obligation. Personally, I'm not buying that all of the Gators' problems have been solved. I still don't see that they have developed any kind of dependable rushing attack outside of their Tebow power package and I personally don't think Louis Murphy can be counted on to make the circus catches he made against Georgia to open the Gators' passing attack every week, especially not against a Vanderbilt defense that is 3rd in the conference in pass defense. 20+ point spreads in SEC games are always cause for alarm, but, personally, I think this one is a cause for jubilation. Hooray, I have one game to gamble on!

WEEK 9 VCS

2009-10-30T17:45:00.000-04:00

I'm afraid it's another very busy week at work and I won't be able to provide you with as long a VCS column as usual. Still, I didn't want you to go completely without my wisdom and wit, so I threw this short issue together to get you through the weekend. First of all, here are the picks that don't matter: TULANE +35 @ lsu, E. Michigan @ ARKANSAS - 38. Here's the rest:

OLE MISS -3.5 @ Auburn (3)
I have neither seen nor heard anything to indicate that the Auburn freefall will be halted this weekend. No major changes have been made and no one is coming back from the injury list that gives me any reason to support the Tigers getting anything less than 2 scores against any SEC opponent. To me, this looks like another terrible match-up for them - very stout defense and an offense that's got plenty of talent and just starting to find their way. The home setting and the many problems the Rebels still have make me think this one will not be a blowout like last week (as predicted here), but it won't be a field goal game either.

GEORGIA +15.5 vs. Florida (1)
Every offense in the conference stinks. Until further notice, I'm adopting a new rule: If the spread is more than 2 TD's, take the points. I think we have a lot of 24-14 games in our future.

Mississippi St. @ KENTUCKY -3.5 (1)
In all honesty, I think this line is right on the money. The two teams are probably just about even, so Kentucky gives points because the game is in Lexington. The big question here is how the Bulldogs will respond coming off the emotional loss last week. I imagine it would be pretty difficult to go from taking on the #1 team in the country at home, with a real hope that you can win, only to lose a hard-fought contest to traveling to Kentucky and taking on a team that you care absolutely about. I'm guessing that that emotional downturn will be enough to push State into a sloppy effort.

GEORGIA TECH -12 @ Vanderbilt
This is a terrible match-up for Vandy. The one thing that Vandy has done so well (and the only thing that has kept them in any games lately) is defend against the pass, which just happens to be the one thing Tech has little to no interest in doing. So, with their greatest advantaged largely neutralized and their offense still in a complete shambles, I think this could could get out of hand early.

SOUTH CAROLINA +5.5 @ Tennessee (2)
I'm very impressed with the resurrection job Kiffin is putting together in Knoxville, but I'm still not willing back Crompton laying points against any SEC team. Remember, Spurrier has plenty of motivation for sticking it to Kiffin at home this year and he's got the defense and QB to do so. This just feels like a field goal game to me.

VCS - WEEK 8

2009-10-23T16:29:00.002-04:00

I'm glad to say that I feel a little better about this week's action, although it doesn't seem to matter how I feel about the lines at all. I could not have felt worse about last week's lines and I still went 4-2, though I somehow again failed to make any money. Well, whatever it's worth, I feel much more optimistic about this week, so you should all be gearing up to mock me more than usual after I crash and burn on Saturday, which apparently you love to do, especially when my misses involve my beloved Auburn Tigers. I really appreciate that by the way, fellas. There's nothing like writing a column where you pick your team to win, actually backing up your pick with your own money only to then watch both your money and your heart go up in flames when your team loses and then having to hear about it over and over again from the people you are hoping to entertain. I don't remember anyone writing to thank me for the Auburn/Tennessee gift a couple of weeks ago or a single phone call praising me for seeing the Arkansas and South Carolina surprise covers last week, but I pick Auburn to beat a team they haven't lost to in 43 years and suddenly my inbox is stuffed full with helpful reminders of my mistake. With friends like this, indeed.

I haven't lost hope though. I'm going to keep plugging along. All the negativity in the world isn't going to stop the VCS Train. I hope you enjoy this week's installment. For some reason, it was especially fun to write. As always, my picks are in CAPS:

ARKANSAS +6 @ Ole Miss (3)
Easily the most surprising line of the week. I just cannot fathom how an easier-than-it-looked blowout of a pretty terrible UAB team puts Ole Miss in position to be favored over a team that in the past two weeks has blown out Auburn at home and beaten Florida at Florida (Yes, I'm giving the Hogs a victory in that game. No rational person capable of recognizing such an obvious officiating meltdown can possibly think otherwise). I'm confused. Doesn't Ole Miss still have a gaping wound where their offensive line should be? Isn't it disconcerting that even against such weak competition they could still only manage 163 yards rushing with no single back going over 60 yards? Does one good game suddenly restore the burning oil tanker of a disaster that has been the season of Jevan Snead? I say no. For my money, Arkansas is easily the second best team in the West right now, behind only Alabama. I'll say this again: this team is LOADED. It's just a matter of waiting for their many excellent players to become seasoned enough to play somewhere near their potential. I think they're pretty close.

The one interesting argument in favor of the Rebels here is that Arkansas might be depressed from a morale perspective following the crushing (and, as mentioned, totally unjust) loss to the Gators last weekend. That could certainly be true, but I have trouble believing that a team that's already lost twice this season would have so much invested in one game. The mental and emotional readiness of a team is a significant factor in college football (see Auburn two weeks ago at Arkansas), but it is also nearly impossible to identify. Unless I have a clear sense that a team is on an emotional downswing, I find it's better to ignore such amorphous concepts altogether and just pick the game in straight football terms. Here, that means a victory for the Hogs and another dispiriting loss for the fallen Rebs.

TENNESSEE +15.5 @ Alabama (2)
All those warning signs I discussed last weekend about Bama? There's still in play. McElroy is officially struggling and is being continuously bailed out by his rushing attack - or, more accurately, by opposing defensive coordinators' collective refusal to stack against the run and force McElroy to beat them through the air. That's a trend I see ending this week. This strikes me as the perfect match-up for Tennessee (admittedly, that's not saying much). They get to play a team that can't score in bunches and is content to engage in a run-shortened, defensive battle, which just happens to be the only type of game Tennessee can play. I'm not looking for any miracles from Crompton (which is very, very good for me), I just think Monte Kiffin will put just enough on the shoulders of McElroy to make this one ugly. Ugly and close. And, as the time honored gambling rule says, Ugly + Close + 15.5 point spread = TAKE THE POINTS.

La Monroe @ KENTUCKY -16.5 (1)
I'm not writing about this game. In fact, I may ban Rich Brooks from my column permanently. It's bad enough that he has been torturing me here for years, but when he took our little spat onto the playing field and embarrassed my Auburn Tigers on national TV just to spite me, well, I'm drawing a line in the sand. Across this line, you do not cross.

Vanderbilt @ SOUTH CAROLINA -12.5 (2)
Vanderbilt is bad. This, in and of itself, is nothing new. However, it is my contention that this year's Vandy badness is something of a different animal than previous years' Vandy badness. Before, they were the plucky little underdog who was deceptively good at a few things, always fought hard and made those JP games much, much closer than they deserved to be (forcing us all to sit through an entire Dave-centric broadcast) only to spectacularly combust at the end and allow MAJOR FAVORITE TEAM X to escape unharmed. That Vandy we all knew and loved didn't win much, but boy howdy did they have some spectacular covers over the years. JP Vandy was almost guaranteed to cover any double-digit spread that dared face them in the late morning hours. Unfortunately, that Vandy is dead. The new Vandy is still surprisingly good at a few things (namely, pass defense), but the unmitigated disaster that is the Vandy offense seems to have excised a remarkable amount of that underdog pluck from the Vandy consciousness. You'd think decades of losing would have conditioned the Dores faithful to accept their weekly meltdowns with meek resignation, but this has not been the case. I guess the brief taste of winning they experienced last season created a bigger thirst for more of the same than anyone anticipated, because I've sensed a whole new level of anger and resentment from the Dore faithful (read: Jeremy K.) about the traditional Vandy losing than I've ever sensed before. Those yuppies are pissed! I haven't seen Vandy people this upset since the two Starbucks on 21st Ave. stopped selling pumpkin lattes immediately after Halloween in 2003. This type of negativity does not stay self-contained within the fan base, trust me. So, if it hasn't already happened, the defense will start to wonder exactly why they're busting their butts all game only to watch their offense politely refuse to move the ball towards the opponent's end of the field. I'm putting Vanderbilt on a "Tuberville/Franklin Full Meltdown Alert" and teams on meltdown alert do not get picked to cover on the road.

Auburn @ LSU -7.5 (2)
I'm not going to bother looking at my past columns to see for sure (that's the kind of hard-nosed research that the VCS just doesn't do), but I'm almost certain that I've taken Auburn in every column so far this season. That strategy was working very well at the beginning of the season when the Tigers boasted the number 1 offense in the country and were surprising teams with huge offensive outputs and a refusal to leave points on the field. The past couple of weeks? Not so much. The accepted theory concerning the offense's sudden and complete impotence (sorry for the unpleasant imagery, but no term fits the situation better) is that QB Chris Todd has somehow re-injured or just worn out his throwing shoulder leaving the passing game in utter ruins and allowing defenses to load up on the rushing attack. That sounds like as good an explanation as any, but I have trouble putting my full faith in it. I've kept relatively silent on the performance of new OC Gus Malzahn this season. Most college football writers have spent the early part of this season tossing out effusive praise for him like it was cheap candy, with the word "genius" being used an embarrassing number of times, even by today's loose standards. Look, there's no doubt that what Malzahn has accomplished with this set of players is impressive, but I think the light being shone upon him seemed a little brighter than it actually was because of the eternal darkness the Auburn faithful were forced to walk through during the 2008 debacle. His formations are creative, his incorporation of a power running scheme into multiple spread sets is inspired, but it has always seemed to me that his system lacks a certain sophistication that an offense must have in order to succeed consistently in a league as tough as the SEC. For example, his passing schemes appear particularly unevolved - incorporating little more than the standard route tree that every receiver learns on his first ever day of practice and, more problematically, relying entirely too much on the individual ability of the WRs to get open on their own (a serious mistake given his current crop of receivers). All of this could be because of time or personnel limitations that have been placed on him this season and, as an Auburn fan, I'm more than willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and the time he needs to grow into a truly great offensive mind, but I just don't see how that's going to happen this year, especially with a QB who does not seem capable of performing well anymore. Have I closed the book on the 2009 Auburn Tigers? Not at all. I picked this team for a 7-5 season and that seems to be exactly where they are headed. I think they still have the capacity to surprise several of the teams left on their schedule, but I don't think it will happen this week.

Remember, this is an LSU with tremendous talent. Sure, they're terribly coached (I believe that LSU OC Gary Crowton will almost certainly be replaced a year's end), but they are also playing at home, at night with all of their SEC West hopes on the line. This is NOT the ideal environment in which to try and rejuvenate a struggling offense with an insecure (as possibly lame) QB. Plus, it's a great matchup for LSU. They have certainly struggled offensively, but their multi-headed rushing attack is perfectly situated to exploit a paper-thin Auburn defense that surrendered 282 yards on the ground to a Kentucky team that did not even have a quarterback (VCL bangs head on desk, gently sobs). I'm not sure LSU has it in them to blow anyone out, but if they're going to do it against any SEC team this season, I'm afraid this is the time, Tiger Stadium is the place and my beloved Auburn Tigers just might be the team.

Florida @ MISSISSIPPI STATE +23 (3)
The trendiest pick of the week. You've got a giant who's struggling with some unforeseen limitations and who, many suspect, might finally be starting to doubt itself. You've got the new head coach going against his former school. You've got key injuries (Brandon Spikes). You've got a impressive and inexplicable historical precedent (UF has not won in Starkville since 1985). All of this has everyone - EVERYONE - smelling blood in the water for a potential upset of the Gators and, if an actual Bulldog victory is a possibility, then Bulldogs +23 must be a mortal lock, right?

Usually, all of this would have me running - nah, sprinting - towards the favorite. As a gambler, you really don't want to get caught up in a swell of public opinion. Here's the rule: bookies are not losing money. When they set a line like this - one that flies flagrantly in the face of the prevailing public opinion (yeah alliterations!) - you don't want to get sucked into following the crowd. It almost feels like a sneak attack; some sort of deceptive misdirection where all the gamblers zig, the teams zag and the bookies zog us all (10 VCS Rubles to anyone who gets that reference).

So, why am I backing the popular underdog here? Simple, it makes great football sense to expect a close game here. The proof is now definitive - there's simply no more arguing that Florida's offense is seriously limited at this point in the season and, worse still, is not showing signs of improving. They have exactly one effective rushing play - the Tebow power - and a cast of wide receivers who have proven they are thus far unable to get separation from defenders or make plays in space. I just can't pick a team with those proven issues to cover a 4-score spread on the road - and that's even before factoring in those very real concerns listed at the top of this section. Mississippi State is nowhere near as talented as Arkansas and, like I did last week, I'm still picking Florida to win outright, but I just can't see this one turning into a 24-point blowout. Put me down for a 28-14 type of game that's not as close as the score indicates. Those types of safe wins are Florida's best chance for survival right now and I think Meyer knows it.

VCS - WEEK 7 - I'm Back, Baby!

2009-10-16T17:16:00.002-04:00

I know you were all terribly disappointed that I didn't post a VCS column last week, but I'm sure the hundreds of thousands of dollars you made on my Auburn +2 over UT prediction from Week 5 soothed the pain somewhat. What's that? You didn't take my advice? I was wondering why my phone wasn't blowing up with gleeful calls of appreciation. Why am I even doing this if you aren't going to take advantage??? Frankly, I'm outraged. And hurt. I'm hurt and outraged and your unwillingness to take my advice. From now on, none of you are allowed to complain about having to work while I'm around.

Seriously, though, I missed writing this last week and I'm glad to be back. I just wish I had a better grip on the league this year. You'll notice quite a few 1s (and maybe lower) in my confidence ratings this week. I expect you to proceed with the appropriate caution. Well, here they are. Enjoy.

GEORGIA -7.5 @ Vanderbilt (3)
Two programs in an absolute freefall kickoff our SEC action for the weekend, continuing the crafty strategy of putting the least interesting game on first thing, when I'm so desperate for my SEC fix that I'd watch large chess pieces draped in the appropriate jerseys move around the field for 3 hours. Kudos, ESPN. Still, at least they are showing two early games this weekend with the Mississippi St. game kicking off just a few minutes after this one. Hoo-ray. So, I guess the question is which team is closest to coming out of their freefall or, failing that, which team's freefall is not quite as deep as the other's. This is usually dangerous territory for gamblers. Trying to pick which bad team will suck less on a particular day is fraught with all sorts of unknown and uncountable factors - team morale, fan frustration, possibly changes being considered, etc. Normally, I wouldn't go anywhere near this one, but this just seems like the perfect match-up for Georgia. Sure, they are struggling on defense. Okay, maybe "struggling" isn't nearly a strong enough word for a unit that just allowed this to happen. Still, a game against the Commodores appears to be the perfect tonic to resuscitate even the most downtrodden of defenses (namely, Georgia's). This Vanderbilt team is totally lost right now. They have no identity or confidence on offense (a bad plan for a team with the greatest talent disparity of any team in the conference) and, while their defense has been excellent this year, no defense can hold the line forever when their offense leaves them stranded over and over again (and a hurry-up offense is even worse). Georgia burned me terribly last week and if this Vandy team had any semblance of momentum heading into this game, I might give them a shot. As it is, I look for Georgia's freefall to be put on pause this weekend with an easy victory in Nashville.

MISSISSIPPI ST. - 4.5 @ Middle Tennessee (1)
I was initially puzzled by this line as well. I, like most of the country, had only viewed MTSU's latest effort - a nationally-televised embarrassment at the hands of the almighty Troy Trojans. You can imagine my surprise to discover that the Blue Raiders are actually 3-2 with a semi-respectable win at Maryland. With Mississippi State standing at 2-4 with their only wins coming against the hapless Commodores and a totally overmatched Jackson St. team, it might come as a surprise that I've selected the Bulldogs to cover on the road. I really don't have a concrete explanation for it, but I continue to be impressed with the efforts put forth by this Mississippi St. team under the directed of Dan Mullen. Though they have 4 of them, they might have the most impressive losses of any 4-loss team in the country - at Auburn, LSU, Georiga Tech and a very good Houston team. On top of that, they were really only truly out of one of those games in the 4th quarter - the loss at Auburn. Perhaps I'm mistaken, but I continue to see the Bulldogs as a team that is improving a little (okay, sometimes very little) every week and, by season's end, might be in position to pull off an upset against a team that had much higher expectations for this season (*cough* Egg Bowl *cough*). Or, it could be that I'm just so eager to pick against a Tony Franklin-coached offense that I'd take the Texas State Armadillos if they were headed to Murfreesboro this weekend. Whatever, it may be close, but I think Dixon will have a huge day and State escapes with a 7-10 point win.

ARKANSAS +24.5 @ Florida (1)
See, I told you that Arkansas offense was something. I just said it two weeks too early (and right before the Razorbacks faced the best defense in the country). Arkansas coming out party against Auburn was not surprising to me. The fact is that their offense is loaded from top to bottom and their defense is athletic, even if they're not the reincarnation of the '86 Bears that Auburn made them look like in the first half. They got stomped by Alabama for many of the same reasons they were able to stomp Auburn (first road game, terrible matchup) and while some of those factors are in play here, I've got to think the Hogs will be playing with a bit more confidence this weekend. Florida will not be upset at home, but their offense is clearly suffering from the loss of Harvin and Mullen more than anyone wanted to consider before the season. Throw in a shaky, overprotected Tebow and I think this one stays close until the fourth, with Florida pulling out the same sort of safe wins they've had over LSU and Tennessee.

UBA +22 @ Ole Miss (negative 1)
As my confidence rating indicates, I have no idea what will happen in this game and won't be going anywhere near it on Saturday. Still, I think it's time we stop waiting for Ole Miss to turn this ship around. Like most people, I expected Ole Miss to compete for the SEC West title (though I didn't think they'd win it) and, like most people, after they lost to South Carolina and looked downright mediocre against Vanderbilt, I expected Houston Nutt to get the team turned around and get them playing like the annoying, overachieving teams of his past. Now, I just can't see that happening. I can't find a way out for them offensively. Their offensive line is dreadful - creating no kind of rushing attack and leaving Snead jittery on every dropback. They have a startling lack of playmakers. Name one player they have on offense that you fear. Snead doesn't work because he cannot fulfill his promise without someone - anyone - to get open, catch his passes and do something with them. They have a collection of running backs who all have the same attribute - in a word: SLOW. Their defense has performed more than admirably, but we're getting to that point in the season when teams whose defenses have been carrying inept offenses start to break down - due both to wear on both their bodies and their minds. It's getting difficult to see how they can blowout anyone with the problems they have.

Kentucky @ AUBURN -14 (2)
Hmmm, I know Auburn looked bad last weekend, but did they really look "unable to clobber a reeling Kentucky team who lost their starting QB at home" bad? Can't the Auburn dump job last weekend be explained, at least in part, by multiple factors that were in play then, but not in play now (first game after a big, emotional win, first game after finally being ranked, first morning game (don't underestimate that), suspensions/injuries that left an already-thin defense even more vulnerable, terrible match-up against a loaded pass-heavy offense)? Now, Auburn is back at home, at night and taking on an offense that might not attempt 10 passes all game. Call me crazy, but I'll lay 2 touchdowns here without even thinking about it. Or, I would if I hadn't promised myself I would never wager on Auburn again after my HEAVY backing of them in the UT game almost killed me. I'm not joking. The Good Doctor was sincerely concerned for my safety. The stress was so great that I wasn't even happy when I (and Auburn) finally prevailed. I was just utterly wiped and left debating if I ever again want to watch sports, gamble or even get out of bed in the morning. The thing is, I just don't need to add the extra financial interest to the Auburn games I watch. My emotional investment is more than enough. Then again, I did ultimately decide to return to watching sports and getting out of bed in the morning, so we'll see what happens with this particular vow.

SOUTH CAROLINA +17 @ Alabama (2)
No one's making a lot of money picking against the Tide lately, but part of being a good gambler is reading the tea leaves and jumping on a trend before it becomes general knowledge. It was fairly easy for anyone following Auburn closely to see the potential for the letdown last weekend, despite the lack of evidence in the stat sheet. Now, despite virtually no evidence, I am feeling a turning of the fortunes of the Tide - if only a little. At the beginning of the season, I predicted rookie QB Greg McElroy would suffer some first-year jitters. He has been going to extraordinary lengths to prove me wrong. Now, I believe his first cracks are starting to show. He hasn't passed the 150 yard mark in two weeks and his 50% completion percentage isn't exactly blowing me away. So far, his defense and his running game has bailed him out, but eventually someone is going to force the game into his hands. Maybe picking South Carolina's defense (currently 9th in the conference against the run) to be the unit that finally does so isn't the best bet - next week's contest against Monte Kiffin's unit might be the smarter pick - but swings in momentum have a way of rendering past statistical data meaningless. My gut tells me that Alabama just might be on the verge of such a swing - and in a downward fashion. If you're going to go against them, I say now is the time and a 3 score spread gives you an awfully generous cushion to do so.

VCS - WEEK 5 - No Timidity Allowed

2009-09-28T14:12:00.010-04:00

No time for chit chat this week, let's get right to the picks. I usually list the games in order of their start time, but this week I had to change that because I wanted to feature one of the most exciting gambling opportunities I've seen in SEC football first. As always, my pick is in CAPS:

AUBURN +2 @ Tennessee (3)
I can safely say that I have never been so shocked by a line in all my years of gambling. Each week, I play a little game in my head where I guess what the line for each game in the upcoming week will be (yes, I got the idea from the Sports Guy). Then, if a line comes out that differs significantly from my estimate, I know there might be some value in that game. My early guess for this game? Auburn -10, and that was taking into account some possible Auburn injuries and the home field advantage UT will have in the game. A 12 point difference between my projection and the actual line isn't large. It's freaking enormous. (Note: it's actually gone up to Auburn +2.5 this week!)

We're talking about a Tennessee team that allowed Ohio (that's University of, not State) to score 23 points and be within a touchdown in the 4th quarter last week. That Tennessee team is giving 2 points to an undefeated Auburn team that has beaten a surprisingly strong MSU team and a West Virginia team that is very likely BCS-bowl bound. I am an Auburn fan, but I am not a delusional Auburn fan. Despite a start that has exceeded every possible expectation, I am not entertaining thoughts of an Auburn undefeated season, a SEC West championship or even a double-digit win season. Before the season started, I would have happily settled for 7-5 and would have been ecstatic over anything better and I remain in essentially in the same place.

Still, at this point, I simply cannot fathom how Tennessee is favored in this game. Granted, Auburn's defense is the weakest they've had in years, but are they as weak as their stats indicate? Remember, 13 of Ball State's 30 points in last week's game were scored in the 4th quarter against Auburn's scrubs. Also remember that Auburn is incredibly thin on defense, so their scrubs are the scrubiest scrubs in all of scrub-land. Yes, Auburn gave up 509 yards to West Virginia, but remember that West Virginia has as good of skill position talent as Auburn will see all year (also, almost 100 yards of that 509 were surrendered at the end of each half, when Auburn was in a deep prevent). Consider further that Auburn's defense is currently 5th in the country in takeaways, showing their focus on big plays over the conservative, yard-limiting strategies of the past. Auburn's defense may have fallen far off from year's past, but their offense has made up that lost ground in spades. This is the #1 offense in the country in terms of total yards. You read that correctly. NUMBER ONE.

How is an undefeated team with an aggressive defense and the top offense in the country an underdog to a, well, a Jonathan Crompton-QBed team? I simply have no idea. I'm going to have to apologize in advance for the lack of consideration I've put into my other picks, since my entire bankroll will already be locked up in this game.

NOTE: This is where the lawyer in me wants to add some sort of ass-covering disclaimer just in case. Screw that. I believe this line is ridiculous and I'm going on the record as saying so. Remember kids, taking blindly arrogant risks is one of the true joys of gambling. Don't let the fear of public failure take that away from you.

ALABAMA -16 @ Kentucky
As we stand today, right now, at this very moment, Alabama is the best team in the country. They didn't just beat a young, but talented, Arkansas team last week. They stomped on their throats, reached into their chest and pulled out their still-beating heart, showing it to the Hog faithful before eating it. That was gross. Anyway, the Tide is beginning to be the team that one has a hard time imagining what would have to happen for a someone to beat them - much like Florida was last year. It's pretty clear now that McElroy is at least as good as Wilson was last year. Their running game has been upgraded from solid to spectacular with the addition of Richardson. Their offensive line may eventually be their weak spot, but they're not showing any signs of it now. Oh, and their defense has been good beyond words (suffocating is the closest I can think of - their speed is so overwhelming, their pressure so intense, it's easy to imagine opposing offenses are struggling to breathe). That said, I thought the Arkansas gameplan was terrible. Apparently, Petrino was as in love with his vertical passing game as I was and has forgotten everything else - 12 carries for 2008 All-World Michael Smith? Really? - so Bama just had a field day pressing the young Arkansas receivers and letting the dogs loose to chase down the mobility-challenged Mallett. It's possible that a team will be able maintain balance on offense with a few big plays sprinkled in and gamble on shutting down the Tide rushing attack and pressuring McElroy, putting an inexperienced QB in an uncomfortable situation, but after last week's total embarrassment, I'm not gambling on Kentucky to be that team.

lsu @ GEORGIA -3.5 (1)
That (1) could not be more heartfelt. I have no idea what to make of either of these teams. Last week, Georgia abruptly shifted gears from the high-flying, defensively challenged team they'd been the last two weeks to put on a tough, low-scoring slugfest against a Pac-10 team. In all honesty, I could not offer a single confident opinion on Georgia's offense, defense or special teams right now...and we're 1/3 a way through the season. Who is this team? I, for one, have absolutely no clue.

So, this pick is mostly based on what I know about their opponent, LSU. They suck. They're terrible. Or, more correctly, they currently have one of the most loaded rosters in the country playing terribly. This will be the last season for OC, Gary Crowton. His failure to ready Jordan Jefferson and his baffling stubbornness not to exploit his enormous talent advantage has finally grown thin. In their win that absolutely should have been a loss, Crowton gave Brandon LaFell 6 touches despite the fact that he was completely and utterly uncoverable. Charles Scott, he of 1174 yards and 18 TDs last year had 6 carries. Of course, it's pretty hard to manufacture more touches for your completely unstoppable athletes when you only manage 12 first downs for the entire game. There must be a serious problem with their offensive line that I just can't see, but the fact remains that Crowton has never fully exploited the talent he's had at LSU and now that they defense is not what it was on the first few years of his watch, he's being exposed. Like I said, I am not confident I know anything about Georgia, but the proof is pretty clear that LSU is set to be this season's most disappointing team.

Ole Miss @ VANDERBILT +10 (1)
Rebel fans are simply incensed by that last sentence. How dare I steal the "most disappointing" title from them? Simple, no one really had the hopes that Ole Miss was all that great. I didn't, but allowed myself to be seduced by this most formidable of paper tigers, or Rebels as it were, in my Week 1 picks. Now, there are a few obvious facts that are working against the Rebels - their offensive line is possibly the worst in the SEC, their OC has them running a Canadian football-influenced vertical passing game despite a lack of play-making WRs and the previously mentioned porous offensive line and their head coach has now continued his streak of failing to meet expectations with very talented teams. Even more worrisome, these are not easily correctable problems. Still, it's not implausible to think the Rebs can tweak things just enough to manage 8 or 9 wins, especially considering their joke of a schedule.

But, will they be able to tweak enough in one week to go on the road and cover a 10-point spread against this Vanderbilt team? I just can't take that leap. Don't get me wrong, Vanderbilt has not given us a single reason to believe they will be able to build on the unprecedented success they enjoyed last year. Two wins over Western Carolina and Rice and losses against an SEC team that was widely thought to be the worst in the league and one desperately trying to claim that title for themselves don't exactly inspire confidence, but I'll take my chances on them getting 10 against a Rebel team that is struggling to find something they do well offensively.

Another note on the Commodores: I've only gotten to watch Vandy a couple of times (have I mentioned how awesome the SEC Digital Network is?), but I've noticed one especially curious thing about them. They're trying to run a no-huddle, hurry-up offense similar to what Malzahn in running at Auburn, which is all well and good, but their play-calling is remarkably conservative - often settling to punt and play for field position. This strikes me as an inherently contradictory game plan. If you're going to make special efforts to minimize the time spent between snaps, shouldn't you adopt a slightly more aggressive strategy aimed at keeping the opposing defense on the field so you can exhaust them? What good does it do to run a hurry-up offense and then openly settle for multiple 3-and-out possessions? Are they just trying to punish their defense by sending them back onto the field with the bare minimum of rest? It seems to me that they're combining two extreme offensive philosophies and taking the worst of each. Vandy, either stick with the hurry-up and challenge your offense to make plays or slow things down, shorten the game, play things conservatively and try to win with defense. Thanks.

ARKANSAS -1.5 vs. Texas A&M (2)
They haven't published an over for this one yet, but whatever it is, I'll likely take it. A&M has been undergoing the same sort of offensive renaissance that Auburn has - moving to a fast-paced, aggressive attack. Unlike Auburn, however, they emphasize the pass very heavily, averaging over 300 ypg in the air. Of course, thus far they've played a schedule that would make Ole Miss blush, so it's hard to know what to expect from them.

For all their offensive potential, Arkansas does not have an impressive win (or even especially close game) to their credit this season. So why take them? Basically, I'm just picking talent. Not just on-field talent either - I'll take Arkansas' Petrino against A&M's Sherman any day of the week. Also, even though they don't have much to show for it, Arkansas has already been through two major battles this season and I have to think going up against that level of competition has prepared them better than A&M's creampuff run has prepared the Aggies. I'm hoping Petrino learned a little something about his team this past weekend. Namely that even though they do have a remarkably gifted QB and, thus, the ability to throw the ball deep downfield, they cannot completely forsake offensive balance and must work the ball into Michael Smith's hands - on draws or screens, especially - to take the pressure off their offensive line and give Mallett the time to be not just dynamic, but efficient as well. This one has every indication of being a shootout. I'll go with the team that's been through the refiner's fire that is SEC competition.

Georgia Tech @ MISSISSIPPI ST. +5.5 (1)
So, is MSU tougher than we all thought or are Vanderbilt and (especially) LSU much, much worse than we thought. Sure, it's probably a little of both but, call me crazy, I think it's most likely the former. Since their startlingly poor performance against Auburn, I've been very impressed with the way MSU's defense has rebounded. It's pretty clear that DC Torbush saw some of the same mental mistakes and strategic errors that I did and made the necessary corrections. Then again, it could be that the novelty of Auburn's offense was just too great a challenge for him while the relatively familiar offenses run by Vanderbilt and LSU were more in his wheelhouse. That could be a very real problem against the famous flexbone attack that Paul Johnson runs at Georgia Tech. Will he be able to adjust to an unconventional offense?

On the other side of the ball, it seems as if QB Tyson Lee has finally claimed the position as I thought he would all off-season. Obviously, Relf is a better runner, but Lee is not a terrible one and he seems to be making much better decisions with the ball (except for goal line passes and options...sorry Eddie and Tim, I couldn't resist). It's just a fact that with Relf in the game, they have a slightly more dynamic runner at QB, but can only run about 10% of the offense and for an offense that's built on a myriad of constraint concepts, that's a real problem. With Lee running things, they grade out at about a C on offense, which is light years ahead of where I expected them to be by this time this year.

Still, MSU is certainly not a great team and probably not even a good one. So, why take them getting less than a TD against a ranked team? Easy: the ACC. At this point, I'm officially picking any team from a BCS conference against an ACC opponent until further notice. I just don't think teams from the ACC belong on the field with teams from the SEC. See, I told you blind arrogance was fun.

VCS - Week 4

2009-09-25T17:16:00.004-04:00

Sorry for the lateness and brevity of these picks. I've got Brother Eddie in the NYC with a few friends and we've been tearing this town to pieces for the past few days - including a trip to the Meadowlands to see U2 at Giants Stadium last night (NOTE: Don't ever go to the Meadowlands. Not for a football game. Not for a basketball game. Not for a concert. Do not go - especially if you are traveling from Manhattan. It's so poorly run that you'd have thought no one told them they would have a 90,000 people descending on the area until sometime yesterday afternoon. Trust me, stay away.) Anyway, I'm short on time (and energy), so I'll be keeping these concise. It helps that this week brings us an embarrassingly weak slate of SEC action. I'll only be discussing games that matter, but for the record, my picks for the other games are as follows: Ball St. @ AUBURN -33, Ohio @ TENNESSEE -21 and VANDERBILT -8 @ Rice. As always, my pick is in CAPS:

LSU -13 @ Mississippi St.(2)
This fits right in with my common theme this weekend: I am completely baffled by at least half of the teams in the SEC. Why is a team like LSU - who has proven skill men like Charles Scott, Keiland Williams, Richard Murphy, Brandon Lafell and Jordan Jefferson - only averaging 326 yards per game, despite not having faced a single ranked (or even close to it) opponent thus far this season? How did Mississippi State hold anyone - ANYONE - to 157 yards of total offense, as they did against Vanderbilt last week?

Actually, I think I know the answer to that last one since I scripted most of Vandy's offensive series - a remarkable string of offensive mistakes. Easy passes thrown off target, easy catches dropped for no reason, missed blocks, poor cuts - Vandy put on one of the worst-executed offensive performances I've seen thus far this season. I understand that Bobby Johnson and his staff are under quite a bit of heat for their gameplan last week, but I submit that if they would have simply cut their unforced mistakes in half, they would have scored enough to topple the Bulldogs. It was a great (and thoroughly unexpected) win for State, but I'm not a believer just yet. This is another talent pick. Simply, I believe that LSU has a talent advantage over MSU that is greater than two touchdowns. That's where my analysis stops and I think I'm correct in doing so.

ARKANSAS +17 @ Alabama (3)
I got a chance to watch the Arkansas/UGA game on the SEC Digital Network this week and...WOW. Ryan Mallett is an absolutely amazing specimen. DO NOT miss a chance to watch him play. With his arm, Arkansas currently has the greatest vertical passing attack I've ever seen on any level. Ever. Do yourself a favor and watch the first quarter of that game. You'd swear you were watching John Elway's college highlight reel. I was left literally speechless. Of course, as impressive as Mallett and the Arkansas WRs were, they still lost the game. Their defense is truly atrocious. Their DBs were so often turned the wrong direction in pass coverage (often just staring into space with their backs to both the receiver AND the ball) that I began to worry for their mental well-being. Personally, I expect Julio Jones and the rest of the Alabama offense to have a huge night, but I also think this is where we will see our first cracks in the vaunted Alabama defense and we will see these cracks for the first time in this game because this will be the first time the defense will have been tested...at all. There's no denying that Alabama has looked great thus far this year, but one thing people keep overlooking is how sneakily easy their slate has been so far. North Texas, Florida International and a Virginia Tech team that hails from a conference who should have their BCS membership revoked TODAY, as in immediately. Clearly this will be the best offense they've faced so far this year and it might even be the best team they've faced. 17 points is just too much for a team that has not been tested yet to be laying to anyone. Because of that, I'm making this one my increasingly meaningless Luck of the Irish Pot O' Gold Pick of the Week.

ARIZONA ST. +12.5 @ Georgia (1)
Usually in non-conference game, I find myself evaluating one relatively known element (the SEC team) and one relatively unknown element (the non-SEC team). In this case, however, I must admit that both of these teams completely elude my understanding and the SEC might just be more of a mystery to me than the non-SEC team. What to make of the Georgia Bulldogs? First, they lay an absolute stinkbomb - especially offensively - in the season opener against a subsequently exposed Oklahoma St. team. Then, they engage in the most improbable of shootouts with a South Carolina team that has not since shown either the ability to score as they did in that game or the complete inability to stop their opponent from scoring. Then, they gave us the more understandable shootout with Arkansas and somehow come out on top despite committing 3 turnovers and only attempting only 26 passes. Is this team the defensively-challenged offensive jugernaut they have appeared to be the last 2 weeks? I have absolutely no idea.

I know even less about the Arizona St. team they are facing. They are 2-0 with only meaningless cupcake wins at home. They will bring a rookie QB on the road for the first time in this game and they are expected to be a tough defensive team, at least by Pac-10 standards. My thinking is that Georgia will be a little worn out from there last 2 action-packed games and will come out flat against a team about which they know nothing and care even less than that. That, coupled with an inspired Arizona St. team looking to knock off an SEC powerhouse, leads me to believe this game will be closer than most people think with Georgia pulling away late and winning another shootout by 7-10 points.

WHAT'S YOUR FANTASY? - WEEK 4

2009-09-24T14:29:00.004-04:00

Late to the game on this, but not really. With a combined 16 years of SEC fantasy football experience, Sean and I live this each week of the year -- not just the season, but the year.

Here's the plan. I highlight a position match-up for each SEC game. I create a spread based on each player's average pts per game (based on the scoring system we use for the SECFFL). Then you get my prediction. It's that simple. And if this peaks your interest re: SEC fantasy football, find us and we'll give you the deets.

Jevan Snead -3.6 @ Stephen Garcia

I personally had both these guys on my roster last season, and once Garcia got the starting nod, I had visions of greatness--top recruited QB, mobile, big arm, Spurrier system--but the guy managed to let me down every time I started him. Snead, meanwhile, got better and better and each game progressed.

Just like the spread for the actual game, this one is muddy. The SC defense has been both praised and blasted, and I tend to take the UGA game as more acurate picture of them than the NCSU game.

VERDICT: SNEAD -3.6

Keiland Williams -1 @ Anthony Dixon

This one should be this close because KW has to split time with Charles Scott, and Dixon plays for Miss. State, by far the worst SEC school in terms of fantasy production within the past decade. Vandy does make it a close race for worst, but Vandy typically has a couple useful guys and a strong defense, while Miss St has pretty much been represented solely by their feature RB over the years. This year is no different.

Dixon is only going to get more productive as the season goes on, as Mullen realizes he can't execute anything but Dixon up the middle. It all starts here. Keiland on the other hand, has an opportunity to seperate himself from Scott. The only problem? Les Miles, who has held KW back ever since '07, when jaws dropped (well, mine) as we witnessed Jacob Hester getting hand off after hand off on that first game of the season (against none other than State). That didn't stop all season, and it left KW owners (myself included) cursing the name of Les Miles.

VERDICT: DIXON +1

Ryan Mallett -12.5 @ Greg McElroy

Mallett and Arkansas are unreal. Vintage Petrino -- just hope your offense scores more than your defense allows--it's usually close. Mallett has proven to be the man for this offense, and he proved it last week with a giant 40+ pt performance against UGA...in a loss, mind you.

McElroy was barely considered fantasy-worthy before the season, but he has proved his worth, averaging almost 20 pts a game (very respectable in our league). He's challenged with a lack of WR quality, especially with Julio hurt the past two weeks, but he plays smart. You won't get many negative points out of him (i.e. INTs/fumbles). He's also good for 200-250 yds + 1-2 TDs. And that will be enough to cover.

VERDICT: McELROY +12.5

Riley Cooper -1.4 @ Chris Matthews

Every season, there's at least one hyped-up JUCO player who fails to live up to the billing. This season, welcome to the Chris Matthews Show. Desperate for a WR to play opposite Randall Cobb, Matthews and his 6-5 frame have been praised by both UK fans and the media. Unlike former Wildcat Steve Johnson, Matthews has been seen by most as a JUCOer who wouldn't need a season to warm up to the big leagues. So far, he grabbed 10 catches total in UK's two games, second only to Cobb's 13.

A guy like Riley Cooper is dreaded in fantasy leagues--listed high on depth charts but fails to get the stats a #1 or 2 WR should get. That's why he went for $1 in our auction this season, but at that price, you can't argue with his low ceiling. With Deonte injured and Harvin/Murphy gone, he's been one of Tebow's few passing options...which is why there passing game was so miserable against a good UT defense. Expect Florida to get more creative this week...which will leave Cooper an afterthought in Florida's gameplan.

VERDICT: CHRIS MATTHEWS +1.4

VCS - Week 4 (Thursday Night Edition)

2009-09-24T13:00:00.001-04:00

I just wanted to get my pick up for this Thursday's game. The rest will follow tomorrow.

OLE MISS -3 @ South Carolina (2)
Okay, I'm cheating a little bit here. I'll admit it. This line started at -3 and has already moved 2 points to -5, meaning a lot of the money is pouring into Ole Miss - like all the money. Still, the house rules here at SECCRUSH dictate that I base my predictions on the opening lines, not the current lines. Why? Simple - I'm lazy and I don't like having to rewrite a section when the line moves from 6.5 to 7.5 by Friday afternoon.

Here's the deal, a 2-point move in the lines in 3 days is a big deal. One sportsbook I checked with said that 75% of their bettors had their money on the Rebels. Sportsbooks hate that kind of imbalance, so they move the line to try and even things out...sometimes. When they move the line a significant amount, that tells me that they have no strong opinion on the game itself and are just trying to even out the action. When they don't move the line despite all the money going to one side, Vegas is essentially taking the other side, which means Vegas probably knows something the general public does not and you better watch out. If a sportsbook is willing to let 75% of the money stay on one side, you can assume their pretty confident the other side is going to win. That's when it is smart to go against public opinion - when was the last time you heard of a sportsbook going bankrupt?

However, that is not the case with this game. Vegas set the line at -3 and has essentially showed their hand by moving the line 2 whole points in 3 days. They really don't have a strong read on this game either way and are desperate to entice bettors to take the Gamecocks here. In this case, if all else fails, I believe you should stay on the side of the general gambling public - especially if you write a lightly-read SEC picks column and you can cheat by using the opening line. The phrase "if all else fails" certainly applies here. I can't say anything with any certainty about either of these teams. Ole Miss looked truly shaky against a subpar Memphis team with their supposed strong spot - QB Jevan Snead - looking like their weakest link, followed by an off week and then a meaningless cupcake blowout. I'll admit that I'm down on the Rebels. Every part of their game struggled against Memphis. They couldn't run or stop the run, which is a huge red flag for any team. Still, it was week 1 and Houston Nutt, for all his good qualities, has never been known as a great high-expectations coach. Now that those expectations have subsided a bit, I'm betting he surprised nearly everyone with an overwhelming performance in Columbia. It will help that he's facing a South Carolina team that suddenly can't seem to stop anyone and doesn't have nearly as many playmakers on either side of the ball as the Rebels do. Much like Vegas, I don't have a great feel for this game, so I'm going to side with the overwhelming public opinion and the more talented team.

COMMENTS NOW WORKING

2009-09-23T16:16:00.001-04:00

To our unfaithful readers, our comments section is now working. Flame away.

LIGHTEN UP, CBS

2009-09-21T15:47:00.005-04:00

First, let me state that I'm very very grateful to the SEC and ESPN for bringing us 95-100% of SEC games each week. As a fan of the league and a commissioner of an 8 year old SEC fantasy football league, each and every game means something to me.

If you're like me, you too have been smacked in the face with SEC overload each Saturday night around 6pm CST. During that hour, 3-5 SEC games are being televised by most of the ESPN channels. Just announced, there are going to be FIVE SEC games on at the same time a week from Saturday. FIVE...two of which are conference games.

Why? Because CBS has some sort of non-compete clause in their afternoon SEC game of the week. Yes, even the 2 hours of commercials they show each game are safe from other televised SEC action. Even Gary Danielson's hard-on for Nick Saban doesn't need to worry about viewers switching to another SEC game.

Yes, I'm thankful to have the opportunity to watch practically any SEC team each and every week, but it's hard to imagine that ESPN is getting their money's worth out of the deal when their viewers must choose between so many games coming on at the same time. Frankly, they need to consider switching the ESPN2 game (or ESPNU or ESPN Classic or ESPN, or even the Fox Sports South game) to 8pm or so. Makes sense to me.

VCS - WEEK 3: THE WEEK OF UNCERTAINTY

2009-09-18T14:33:00.007-04:00

Ah, the mysteries of gambling. Isn't she a strange and unpredictable mistress? How else do you explain that I went 5-1 with my picks last week and STILL LOST MONEY!?! I can't even recall how it happened. Sometime between the time when I finished my column on Friday and placed my bets on Saturday morning, I forgot everything all the precious bits of wisdom I had bestowed upon you, except, of course, my brilliant decision to back Jonathan F'ing Crompton laying 8 points. I can't even recall what I gambled on. I could pull up my bet history, but I'm really not in the mood to torture myself any further. It's a good thing the old reliable NFL was there to make all my money back for me. Still, there's no excuse for ignoring my own brilliance. I promise it won't happen again. On to this week's picks. Again, I'll only be discussing games that matter, but just so the record is complete, I'll take South Carolina -20.5 over FAU, LSU -26 over UL-Lafayette and Alabama -39.5 over North Texas. My picks are in CAPS and my confidence rating is next to each game in parenthesis.

Louisville @ KENTUCKY -13.5 (2)
We've only seen Kentucky once this season and that was against a Miami (OH) that has yet to score a touchdown this season. As Tennessee so painfully taught me, there's a limit to what you can learn from watching a team in one game against terrible competition. Add to that the completely unknown entity that is Louisville and the embodiment of pure evil that is Rich Brooks, and this one has STAY AWAY screaming at me from all directions. Well, I'm going to take a break from all that logical mumbo jumbo and go with my gut here and my gut tells me this Kentucky team might actually be a pretty good team, possibly even the third best in the East. Do Tennessee, Vandy or S. Carolina have weapons like Randall Cobb and Chris Matthews and Derrick Locke to turn to on offense? No. Their defense only returned 4 starters from last year, but one of those starters is Trevard Lindley - possibly the best CB in the league - and the rest played significantly last year and are, by all accounts, more talented than the guys they replaced. Obviously the crucial question is at QB, where Mike Hartline is again the starter even after his Crompton-esque performance in the games he played last year. Clearly, I have no idea if Hartline is better yet, but I watched him play last year and I watched him in their game this year and I hardly recognized them as the same person. Again, I realize that's not a lot to go on, but gambling's about educated guesses and gut reactions. I always want to lean more towards the former than the latter, but sometimes that's just not possible. So, I'm going with my gut. Plus, taking Kentucky here helps complete a theme for my picks this week and I love a good theme. See if you can tell what it is.

Tennessee @ FLORIDA -29.5 (2)
I used to have a rule to always take the points in any games between SEC schools where the spread was 4 TDs or greater. I gladly waive that rule for this contest. Frankly, this spread could have reach triple digits and I'd still probably go with the Gators or, more correctly, against the Vols. Is some of that due to spite? Perhaps. Perhaps I'm carrying a little bitterness towards Tennessee after they totally screwed me last week - embarrassing the SEC by losing to a UCLA team that was the picture of Pac-10 mediocrity and, more importantly, handing me my first Pick of the Week loss in Week 2. I watched that game outraged that I had staked so much on any team with Jonathan Crompton on its roster and it's entirely possibly that that regret it clouding my vision a bit this week. You know what? I don't care. I don't care that this is the most obvious pick in the country this weekend. I don't care that Monte Kiffin has had this game in mind since he took the job at UT with an eye towards tackling the most unique offense he's ever faced (not saying much since he came from the NFL where everyone runs the same offense). I don't care that Kiffin has to now realize how dire his QB situation is and must have a plan for limiting his exposure there with more rushing and creative play-calling. I don't care because I believe that even without the gaping sinkhole of darkness that is Jonathan Crompton, Florida is at least 3 times as talented at UT right now. It won't always be that way. I remain very impressed by Tennessee's young RBs - frankly, I think Brown should be starting over Hardesty at this point - and all signs point to UT having a very successful recruiting class for next year. Right now, however, they are very much a work at progress and their taking that work to Florida to play against the best team in the country that is coached by one of the great spread coverers to have ever paced the sideline. 45-10 doesn't just seem possible; it seems nearly inevitable.

Mississippi State @ VANDERBILT -9 (3)
Vanderbilt has found a new level of acceptance and even (GASP!) respect under the direction of Bobby Johnson. I am not certain this is warranted. I do think Johnson is an excellent coach who has brought a discipline and focus to Vanderbilt that I've never seen before. However, the case can be made that he does not, in fact, have the Commodores in a position to beat teams today that they could not have beaten before. That is, you could argue that he's made Vanderbilt about as good as it should have been all along, not necessarily better. Most people point to their bowl-eligible 2008 season as proof of vertical trajectory he has the team on, but I'm not putting a great deal of stock in what any team did in 2008, considering it was probably the worst season of SEC football in my lifetime - with three programs in absolute free falls that would ultimately lead to coaching changes (Auburn, Tennessee and Mississippi State) and several more performing at levels well below expectations. The only notable win from their slate last year was an early victory at Ole Miss - the Auburn and South Carolina victories looking much less impressive in light of later events. More notable are their losses - Duke, Tennessee and even Mississippi State, easily the worst team in the league last year. Now, I'm not arguing Vanderbilt hasn't made some serious strides under Johnson, I just think the strides have not been quite as large as the general public seems to think, which is incredibly valuable information from a gambling standpoint. Like it was last week against LSU, the line for Vandy's games this year might be disproportionately skewed in Vandy's favor, which means there will be a real chance to make money by going against them.

So, after all that, why am I taking Vanderbilt laying two scores to a team that beat them last year and is probably at least slightly better this year? Well, as I mentioned in the SEC Digital Network post below, I have spent an embarrassing amount of time this week rewatching (and rewatching and rewatching) Auburn's victory of Mississippi St. last week - even going so far as to meticulously diagram every play Auburn ran enroute to piling up 49 points and 589 yards on offense. I started that exercise hoping to be wowed by new Auburn OC Gus Malzahn's schemes, which I was to an extent, but what struck me even more was just how poorly Mississippi State played on offense. New State head coach Dan Mullen is strictly an offense-minded guy, so I've got to figure that the planning, coaching and general responsibility for State's defense falls squarely on the shoulders of venerable DC Carl Torbush. Torbush is a well-respected defensive mind who had considerable success in the SEC while he was the DC at Alabama under Dennis Franchione. He followed Franchione to Texas A&M where he had, um, less success and was toiling as the LBs coach at South Alabama when Mullen came calling. I thought it was an excellent pick by Mullen and perhaps it will eventually prove to be so, but only if his squad shows considerable improvement from their performance last Saturday. I was stunned by the number of errors - coaching errors - that State made in the game. Auburn was essentially lining up and running a series of inside zone, quick trap and stretch plays. State's first plan was to sit in a traditional 4-3, which could not stop the run. They then switched to a 3-4, which made things worse. Then finally settled on the curious choice of exchanging one of the LBs for another safety and lining up in a nickel look with at least 4 and often up to 6 defenders greater than 8 yards off the line of scrimmage, basically saying, "We'll give you 8-10 yard runs, but we're going to keep you from breaking anything longer than that." - an interesting strategy for a team down several scores on the road and one that didn't work anyway. He brought almost no stunts or blitzes until it was way too late. Still, those strategic decisions can be forgiven. Torbush had never faced a Malzahn offense before and may have personnel issues that forced him into the schemes he ran. What is not forgivable are the numerous mental errors his defense made. On a few occasions, they did not have the correct number of players on the field - sometimes 10, sometimes 12. His LBs were routinely drawn too close into the interior line making them much easier for the offensive linemen to reach and prohibiting them from performing the horizontal scrapes LBs much be able to perform against any type of spread offense. His DEs and OLBs completely failed to keep containment on the edges, allowing Auburn RBs to easily cut back runs to the outside where they were usually only greeted 10 yards downfield by the poor CBs forced to tackle them over and over again. These are basic coaching points. Even teams with vastly inferior talent can be in the right place with the right idea of what they're supposed to be doing. That was not the case with MSU last weekend. Until I see vast improvement from their defense, I simply cannot justify taking them. In fact, I'll probably be loading up against them as I am this week - making this pick my Luck of the Irish Pot O' Gold Pick of the Week.

Georgia @ ARKANSAS -1 (1)
If anyone can explain what happened last week in the UGA/SC game, I am all ears. Seriously, call me immediately if you can explain how two teams that no would would pick to combine for 50 points even if they went to 3 overtimes was able to put up 54 in the first half of last week's game. If the over/under for that game would have been 77.5, I would not be able to write this column due to my thumbs being broken. Why did South Carolina's defense (which I quite foolishly praised last week) look so helpless against the low star-power attack of the Bulldogs? Can anyone say anything for certain about any of the units on either team? The only thing I feel even somewhat comfortable saying is that Georgia's defense looks as if they have not solved the many problems they had last year, which is bad, bad news as they go to face an Arkansas team with a coach who loves to score in bunches and who suddenly appears to have the weapons to do so. Still, if Georgia is a ball of confusion, then Arkansas is totally unknown - a cypher, wrapped in an enigma, smothered in secret sauce. So, children, what do we do when we have to completely unknown entities facing off against one another? STAY AWAY! But, since I have to pick someone, I'll go with the rested home team. Seriously, that's all I've got. You've been warned.

West Virgina @ AUBURN -7 (1)
As you can tell by the deflated confidence rankings, I'm not exactly crazy about this week's lines. It seems like we have a lot of unknown factors in play this week. This is pretty standard in Week 3. We've been through two weeks of football and we feel like we know alot about the teams involved, but we really know nothing because two-thirds of the games played have either been against cupcakes or overrated paper tigers. Plus, most teams are just about to hit their stride and become what they will be for the rest of the season. So, the truth is we know very little about the teams we've actually been watching for two weeks and even less about the teams we haven't seen at all. It's a bad time to put a lot of money on the table.

This game is a perfect example. What do we know about Auburn? I have watched (and rewatched, as covered earlier) Auburn football about as closely as any person could over the past two weeks. I have diagrammed plays and charted tendencies. I have read hundreds of news reports and analysis on both the local and national level. I follow practice reports so closely that I am more familiar with the health of many Auburn players than I am of my own. And yet I know almost nothing about this team. I know they have some talented RBs. I know they have a better-than-expected, but possibly still not very good QB. I know they have zero depth at every position on their defense and are prone to mental mistakes due to their youth and inexperience. I know they are running a unique, fast-paced offense that spreads the field, but emphasizes power rushing more so even than the Auburn teams of the past. The problem is, I knew all of those things before the season even began. Basically, I have learned virtually nothing in the first two games.

I was initially excited by the performance against Mississippi State, but, as discussed, I now feel that Auburn's success seemed due mostly to the deficiencies of their opponent. So, how do I evaluate how they will perform against a better opponent? How do I even know if W. Virginia actually constitutes a better opponent? I can't know. I can't know anything, which is why this is getting a 1 on the old confidence scale. Look, I think this Auburn team is pretty good and I think that last year's Auburn team was so bad for so many reasons and that very little of what happened last year is helpful or informative when evaluating this season's games. West Virginia beat Auburn badly in Morgantown last year in the middle of Auburn's slide into misery. Now, Auburn has an entirely new staff and system and WVU has lost their long-time QB and has changed to more of a passing attack. Can we use last year's game to evaluate this year's game at all? I'm guessing (and I really mean that) that we cannot. So, I'm throwing everything else out and looking at this as a battle between upper-ish level SEC and Big East teams. In that match-up, I'll take the SEC team every time, especially at home. That's about as strong an analysis I can give you in the time of great uncertainty that is Week 3. Be wise, good soldiers, and take it easy this week so as to live and fight another day. Things are about to get really fun.

SEC Digital Network Makes My Heart Very Warm

2009-09-15T16:06:00.003-04:00

If you haven't already, you really should check out the wonderful gift to mankind that is the SEC Digital Net work. Right now - right this very minute - you can enjoy every SEC game played so far this year in its entirety without any commercials. I'll repeat that so it sinks in - you can watch EVERY GAME (even the ones that weren't on TV where you live) in high-quality streaming video (complete with manual navigation) for FREE and with NO COMMERCIALS. Wasting time at work has never been so easy and enjoyable! Number of times I've watched the 93-yard touchdown pass Chris Todd threw to Terrell Zachery from the La Tech game? I will not verify the actual number, but it is between 3 and 5,000. I've already scripted every play from every Auburn scoring drive from the Mississippi State game. I'm a nerd, but there are also uses for all you non-nerds out there. From the look of the site, it seems they're planning a bunch of other additions that could be awesome - downloads, highlights, original team-specific programming and more. Some of that is up now, some is scheduled to come on line later this year. It doesn't matter. Even incomplete, this site is the best thing to happen to us obsessive SEC Fans in a long time - even if it's not so great for our employers.

VCS - WEEK 2

2009-09-11T15:02:00.004-04:00

I can only hope that you enjoyed Week 1 as much as I did. In case you missed it (and shame on you if you did), I was a reckless madman on the Twitter throughout the day's action. I can't explain how satisfying and exhausting that exercise was. Hopefully, Matt will be back in action this week since I would most likely expire if I were to try and replicate my performance from last weekend. Speaking of mediocre performances, I went a deceptively good 4-4 last weekend. Why deceptively great? Because I actually went 4-2 in the games anyone actually cares about. Seriously, if you wagered on UT/W. Kentucky or UK/Miami, seek help immediately. I only wager on games that feature TWO teams I feel like I actually know something about. New coaches and/or QBs or teams that I've never seen play before in my life do not get the courtesy of my bets. That's why I centered almost all of my action last weekend on LSU/Washington. Oh, wait, Washington has a new coach and a returning All-American caliber QB? I did not know that. Well, I DID know that, but somehow willfully forgot it. Oh well, how about that Georgia pick, folks? Did I tell you or did I tell you? Anyway, onto this week's (relatively) poor slate of games. You'll note I've left out the ridiculous Florida and Alabama games in order to focus on the matchups that matter. For the record, however, I'll take Florida -37 and Alabama -34 -- two blowout-friendly coaches searching for all the votes they can get. Also as an added wrinkle, from now on I'll be adding a confidence rating to each pick, so as to better elevate your hopes before you lose all of your money. A number from 1-3 will appear in the title of each game with 1 being least confident and 3 being most confident. Now, the picks (my picks in CAPS):

ucla @ Tennessee -8 (3)
Look, scoring 63 points is impressive. Sure, it was against one of the worst teams I saw all weekend (Jackson St. probably being the only one worse) and, sure, the Vols didn't actually get anywhere until they stopped throwing and just allowed their impressive trio of running backs to mow down the Hilltoppers and, sure, Crompton had as many interceptions as impressive passes (2, and I'm being generous. Don't let his 5 TD passes fool you - they were intentionally manufactured by Kiffin to boost Crompton's confidence. It reminded me of when I use to run up the stats of my favorite players on Madden by having any player about to score run out of bounds at the 1, giving my guy an easy TD run on the next play.). Still, there was no way UT puts up 63 last year (in fact, 63 points is greater than UT scored in any consecutive EIGHT quarters from last year) and, as mentioned, they definitely have something to be excited about in their two freshman running backs, Oku and Bown, who were immensely impressive in their debuts. That's why I'm a little perplexed at just how low this line is. By all accounts UCLA (it was a great deal of fun writing that in all lowercase in the heading, BTW) is still stuck somewhere in the middle of a massive rebuilding process and is bringing a rookie QB (remember my new rule) into Knoxville to play a team that still harbors a grudge about that humiliating loss in Los Angeles last year. UCLA also faces a unique obstacle in going up against Monte Kiffin's Tampa 2 scheme, which was specifically designed to stop the sort of short-passing, horizontal attack that UCLA OC Norm Chow is known to favor. Personally, I don't think this one will be close. Look for Crompton to be sheltered (again) with lots of screens, short crossing routes and TE delays. Look for Hardesty and the two newbies to grind UCLA early and often and look for a complete shutdown by Eric Berry and the rest of Monte Kiffin's crew. As you may have guessed, I'm making this one my Luck of the Irish Pot O' Gold Pick of the Week.

Mississippi State @ AUBURN -14 (2)
I can honestly say that I've never seen an Auburn game like the one I saw last weekend. Not since the 2004 season have I found myself watching an Auburn offense and saying things like, "Wow, I really did not see that coming" and "I think we just pushed the ball upfield to get a last second field goal before the half, but I can't be certain because my eyes are tearing up with joy." It was the first time I've ever watched an Auburn offense (including the Bowden years I witnessed) and thought: "This team is trying to score on every play." I have no idea how that will translate to wins in the ultra-tough SEC. Still, Auburn answered a lot of questions for me last weekend. Their defensive secondary is much, much tougher than I expected - especially given they are starting true freshman (and very lightly recruited) Daren Bates at safety and that their current crop of healthy linebackers could easily fit into a 2-door sportscar with room to spare. The offense was allowed to play aggressively for the entire game - something often promised in the past and ~~rarely~~ never delivered. Most excitingly of all, the coaching staff made excellent halftime adjustments that turned the game into a surefire blowout by the end of the third quarter. Add all of that to the excellent play of much-maligned QB Chris Todd and the delightful surprise that is Ontario McCalebb and I feel confident in saying that Auburn should beat any team they face with inferior talent.

That brings us to the Mississippi State Bulldogs, who showed some real flashes of promise in their trouncing of an over-matched Jackson St. team. However, they are not without their concerns. Foremost among them is that they seem set on proving the old adage that when you have two quarterbacks, you actually have none. It's pretty rare you see a team with such a stark difference between their QB options. The Bulldogs have one QB (Tyson Lee) who can throw, but can't run and, more disappointingly, did not appear to have a clue about what the offense is supposed to be doing. Their other option (Chris Relf) is a much more dynamic runner and actually appeared to understand the philosophy of the offense better than Lee, but he cannot throw. Plus, his lack of experience is evident in any play that doesn't go exactly according to plan. He doesn't panic so much as he reverts to believing that he is today what what I'm sure he was in high school - the best athlete on the field who can always get the angle on the defense. This instinct will not serve him well in the SEC. Now, there's some room for debate here because one thing the Auburn defense definitely struggled with last week was the unexpected QB scramble, but I'm willing to bet that the Auburn coaches will have a plan to correct this (as they largely did in the second half against La Tech). Basically, it comes down to talent. I'm taking Auburn because I believe that right now they happen to have more talent at nearly every position that Mississippi State. Add in the fact that the game is at Auburn and I think it's the safe pick.

South Carolina +7 @ Georgia (3)
Everyone is so down on the South Carolina/NC State game that kicked off our football season last Thursday, but I actually found it rather enjoyable and 100x more enjoyable than the previous meeting between the two. Everyone points to the 7-3 score as proof that the game was epitome of ineptitude. This is due to the average football fan's inability to distinguish between a "bad offense" and "good defense" game. While it is certainly true that a great number of ultra low-scoring games are due, in part or whole, to the failure of the offenses to do what they're supposed to do (See the 3-2 Auburn/Miss. State game from last year for the perfect example. Wait, actually don't see it. I don't want you holding the experience against me). However, it is also true that many low-scoring games are due to the exceptional play of the defenses involved. Take last night's NFL opener between the Titans and Steelers for example. Now, no one is going to confuse either of those offenses with the 2006 Patriots, but any attentive viewer must have realized that the low score of the game was due to the truly sensational play of the two defenses. And you know what? It was thrilling. High scores do not necessarily make for an excellent game. I'm sure you've all witnessed dozens of games that lit up the scoreboard, but that were not actually all that compelling because it was obvious that all you were watching were two terrible defenses. Great football games feature great play. Sometimes that play comes on the offensive side, sometimes it comes on the defensive side and, in those very special cases, it comes on both sides. In fact, one thing I like to do whenever I watch a game is classify all four parties (offense and defense for each team) into "good," "bad" or "average" categories to try to determine what's actually transpiring.

Let's take last week's games involving these two teams as examples. As I mentioned, I enjoyed the South Carolina game, despite it's low score. This is because I felt I was watching two excellent defenses square off against one average offense (South Carolina) and one terrible offense (NC State). So, that gave us two "goods," one "average" and one "bad." To me, if half of the parties are "good," then the game is most likely going to be enjoyable. Thus, I greatly enjoyed watching two excellent, well-coached defenses battle the entire game, with the one facing the "average" offense ultimately coming out on the short end. Turning to the Georgia/OK State game, I classified the parties thusly: Georgia offense - bad, OK State offense - average, Georgia defense - bad, OK State defense - bad. That's 3 "bads" and one "average" - a recipe for a terrible, unwatchable game, which is exactly what we got. Despite scoring 24 combined points more than South Carolina and NC State did, the Georgia/OK State game was not half as enjoyable as Gamecocks victory was. The point is, a true football fan has to learn how to enjoy excellent play, regardless of on which side of the ball it comes. How does one tell the difference between good offense and bad defense and vice versa? You'll have to keep checking in to www.seccrush.com for that one.

Turning to the game at hand, as you know from the last paragraph, I found Georgia's performance in their season opener not just disappointing, but downright putrid. The drop off offensively could be expected with the loss of stars like Stafford and Moreno and underrated role players like WR Mohamed Massaquoi, but I don't think anyone at Georgia believed it would drop off this much. The flu-ridden Cox looked over-matched both physically and mentally - frequently under throwing receivers and leaving Georgia in what was obviously the wrong play - and he wasn't getting much help from his supporting skill position players, of whom only AJ Green appears to have any game-changing ability. The defense looked somewhat better than last year's disaster, but it was ultimately unable to contain a sputtering, obviously rusty OK State offense that also only featured one game-changer, WR Dez Bryant. Playing opposite this Georgia offense, the Bulldogs defense is going to need to be a great deal better if Georgia is going to avoid a losing season. Personally, I don't see that happening. I'm looking for this one to be close - mostly because it's hard to see how either team will score more than 20 points - and in close games, always take the points.

Vanderbilt @ LSU -14.5 (1)
My continuing deathmatch with Rich Brooks has had many terrifying consequences, but the most underrated among them is that I have been too distracted to properly focus on the work of Coach Les Miles or, as I call him, The Scourge of Gamblers Everywhere. You see, gambling is an inexact science. All you can do is determine which team is better and by how much and then just back the probability that the better team will win and the worse team will lose. The Scourge complicates things by routinely having his team perform substantially below their talent level, while also scattering in some truly dominant and/or terrible performances to keep everyone off-balance. Take last season for instance, The Scourge skillfully sets everyone up with consecutive losses to woefully over-matched Ole Miss and Arkansas only to rebound with a 35-point smashing of a hot Georgia Tech team that everyone in America had picked to cover. Well, he seems to be back to his old tricks right off the bat in 2009 - presiding over a tense 8-point victory against a team with approximately half the talent LSU has. As is the pattern during his tenure, The Scourge's team appeared to have spent the entirety of the fall practice sleeping, playing in the Louisiana swamps or possibly watching the noir classics of the 1940s - anything but practicing football. It's as if he realizes how superior his talent is to just about everyone else he will face and figures, why practice when there's so many other wonderful things to do in this world?

So, why take them giving 14.5 against a Vanderbilt team that has tasted victory and must be taken seriously by everyone now? Simple - because LSU is 5 times as talented as Vanderbilt. What do you want from me? I simply cannot pick against a team with such a decided talent advantage. Add to that the fact that the Scourge must realize that everyone is giving Vandy a shot here because of LSU's performance last week, and I'm betting he's primed to unleash one of his patented unexpected blowouts that should be much more common from this team and which will force us to overrate them for the next few weeks. Or, is that just what he wants me to think?

The Vice Commissioner Speaks Again - Week 1 Picks

2009-09-04T12:03:00.007-04:00

Note to the reader: This week was supposed to mark the debut of a all new picks post where Matt and I would write out picks and analysis together, but Matt has gone on a pilgrimage to Denver to spend some time with the patron saint of SECCRUSH, Jim Ryan. So, for at least one more week, it will just be me providing my insight to satisfy your gambling jones. Yes, for now, the Vice Commissioner still Speaks...

Note to the reader #2: I wrote this first pick earlier this week, I promise. If you truly don't believe me, I'll be happy to email you my winning bet slip as proof. Now, onto the picks (as always, my pick is in CAPS):

SOUTH CAROLINA +4.5 @ NC State
Maybe the smartest move by the football scheduling gods was putting this otherwise blah-worthy match-up on the Thursday of opening week (worst move: the entirety of the Ole Miss non-conference schedule). I cannot put into words how awful last year's match-up was. It almost put me off of the 2008 season before it started (which, in retrospect, might not have been such a bad thing). It was so awful that I swore I'd never watch another NC State game for the rest of my life. I meant it too. Then, they went ahead and scheduled this thing as the season opener and, after a long, dry, seemingly endless off-season, and I once again find myself so happy to see any college football that I will happily lap up every single second of this game like a thirsty dog. Well played, scheduling gods.

As stated, last year's contest was awful to watch. This was partly because every South Carolina game in the Spurrier era has been awful to watch, but it is mostly because the NC State team that played in that game was the worst Div. 1 football team I have ever seen. Ever. Now, I know they didn't have their starting QB and I know they were very young on defense, but I've seen a great number of teams with those kinds of problems and I have never seen any of them play as badly as NC State did last year. I fully expected them to lose every game they played by at least 4 touchdowns. I expected their entire roster to be cut and their entire coaching staff to be fired by year's end. I wouldn't have been terribly surprised if they had just decided to dissolve their football program entirely. Well, apparently that didn't happen. Somehow, that team won 6 games last year, including a 4-game stretch of wins against ACC powerhouses Duke, Wake Forest, North Carolina and Miami that have them positioned as a darkhorse to take the conference title this year (The ACC - Gotta Love It!!!). Well, I ain't buying it. Throw in the fact that this South Carolina team is easily the most talented that Spurrier has ever had at SC and I like the Gamecocks to take this one outright. WARNING: I am fairly certain that I incorrectly picked every single South Carolina game last year. Clearly, Spurrier realized he couldn't actually win the SEC with the team he had last year, so he decided to have some fun and f%@k with me instead. Well played, Old Ball Coach. As a revenge, I plan on picking you to win outright every week of this season. How you like that?

Kentucky v. MIAMI (OH) +15
And speaking of coaches who seem to go to extraordinary lengths just to f@!k with me, here comes my old nemesis, Rich Brooks. Regular readers of the VCS will remember the many colorful battles I've had with this old bastard. We've been slugging at each other for years now. He's cost me plenty of money and I like to think I've gotten in my fair share of shots as well. Frankly, we've been enemies for so long now, we've developed a sort of “hate respect” for one another. Now, he's talking about this being his last year at UK. You are not fooling me, old friend. You and I both know that you will be around for another 100 years to haunt my dreams and my bankroll. You will not stop until you have me broke and swearing off gambling for life. So, please Rich, back off the patronizing retirement talk. You owe me better than that.

Still, I'm picking against you this week. The general consensus about UK is that no one can reach a consensus on how they're going to be this year. How much, if any, has Hartline improved? Will Cobb be able to contribute from the WR spot? Have they finally found some sort of running threat? For me, that's just too many questions to lay 2+ scores in a game against a young, but traditionally stout program at a neural location (By the way, why is UK playing Miami in a neutral location? How can this possibly benefit the team financially or otherwise? You're giving up a home game to battle the Redhawks in Cincinatti? Pointless.). Our rivalry continues, Rich.

WESTERN KENTUCKY +30 @ Tennessee
Have I mentioned how much I hate picking Week 1 games? What does anyone know for sure about Tennessee right now (besides the ins and outs of the Tampa 2 defense they plan to run, of course)? They have an entirely new staff with entirely new schemes, question marks at multiple key positions and a plan to play several true freshman. Add that relative uncertainty to the absolute uncertainty I have about Western Kentucky, and I'll admit I'm betting a bit blind here.

So, why side with the huge underdog? Well, all of those question marks I just outlined, they're on offense. If Tennessee is capable of scoring 30 points against anyone without the help of a few defensive touchdowns, then Kiffin's debut must be considered a rousing success. On top of that, Week 1 of the college football season is your #1 source for craptastic offensive performances. As I've said before, college teams do not get nearly enough preseason practices to adequately install and rehearse the complicated schemes teams are running these days. Recently, I watched a re-broadcast of the 1986 Auburn/Texas A&M bowl game. Including both teams, I counted 11 different offensive plays. 11. As I tweeted, it was barely recognizable as football. Teams nowadays will install more plays than that on the first day of fall practice. They do not have enough time to get it right. Defense, alternatively, is easier to install since it is largely reactive in nature. Thus, the crappy offenses in week 1. Take the points and thank me later.

Georgia @ OKLAHOMA ST. -5
I've always hated picking against Richt in non-conference games. It's my opinion that no coach in the SEC is better at preparing his team for non-conference games than Richt (though Meyer is mounting a strong challenge for that title). Whenever SEC teams play out of conference, and the game isn't against a traditional rival (e.g., UGA/GA Tech), they are always going to face a motivation deficit. The SEC is the big dog of college conferences and everyone knows it. Teams who get a shot at an SEC school know they have a chance to score one against the best conference in football. It's always going to mean more to them. The SEC team looks at it the other way: everything to lose, nothing to gain. Richt has done a wonderful job of keeping him team emotionally even.

Still, this game runs right up against my new rule: never trust a rookie QB. Look at last season, which teams disappointed? Auburn, Tennessee, LSU, Georgia, South Carolina. All but one started a rookie QB. Throw in teams running new schemes and you can add Arkansas and Kentucky into that mix. Who exceeded expectations? Vanderbilt, Florida and Alabama. All played QBs with experience. Sure, it's a small sample size, but it makes sense, so I'm going to see if I can ride it to a few wins this season. Georgia starts this season with rookie Joe Cox (a senior rookie, but a rookie nonetheless) and he starts against a talented, motivated team on the road. On top of all that, the word is now that he might have the damn Bird Flu! I'm sure not backing him. In fact, I'm going to make this one my Luck of the Irish Pot O' Gold Pick of the Week.

Louisiana Tech @ AUBURN -13.5
A lot of your edgy pundits are picking La Tech in the outright upset in this one. It's not happening. Those pundits point to La Tech's 8 wins last year. They fail to mention they beat absolutely no one (sorry State fans) and their losses included a 14-7 embarrassment to Army. Those pundits point to the 8 returning starters La Tech has on defense. They fail to mention that they are returning from a defense that allowed more than 30 points per game when they faced a team that finished with a winning record. Auburn may not have much (read: any) depth, but what they have will be faster and stronger than whatever La Tech has.

So, what to make of the new Auburn regime. No one knows for sure. Anyone who pretends differently is lying. However, one think I feel comfortable predicting is that this Auburn team will be the most united we've seen in several years. As painful as the Tuberville switch was to all Auburn fans (myself definitely included), it's clear at this point that it had to be done. For whatever reason, he and his staff had lost the passion it takes to maintain an SEC football program, especially considering the heights he had taken the Auburn program to. I'm betting that that unity will be enough to put away an overrated opponent and to do so handily.

VIRGINIA TECH +6.5 vs. Alabama
This game couldn't possibly interest me any less. Two boring teams with hard-ass coaches. They do have two great defenses and limit-the-damage offenses. Taking the points is never a bad decision in a defensive struggle. Throw in my new rule re: rookie quarterbacks, and it becomes pretty clear. personally, I won't go anywhere near this game, though I will watch it (Who am I kidding? The least interesting SEC game is 100x more appealing than anything else I'll have going on). I just know I'd feel better having the points.

LSU – 17.5 @ Washington
The easy runner-up for Pick of the Week honors. LSU is my pick to take the West this year and I seem to be alone in that respect. One down year and everyone seems to forget this team is LOADED. Sure, they have a terrible coach who fails to prepare this team and constantly leads them to underachieving seasons. Wait, what was my point? Oh yeah, this is one of the 10 most talented teams in the country facing off against one of the 20 least talented. Washington went 0-12 last year. ZERO AND TWELVE. They were CRUSHED by such powerhouses as Arizona and Notre Dame. Not only did they lose 12 games, they would have covered this 17.5 line in only 3 of them. They were so bad that they went from sad to funny to sad to hilarious to downright depressing.

LSU on the other had simply has to be better than they were last year. They've finally settled on the QB they should have started from the beginning, Jordan Jefferson (remember, bad coach), and they've brought in John Chavis to run the defense. Chavis, for all his faults – and there are many – he has never featured a truly bad defense. Sure, any talented and creative team will still have success against him, but Washington doesn't fit that bill.

OLE MISS -17 @ Memphis
The Ole Miss hype is accurate...mostly. A lot of people will hate reading that and with good reason. There's not a whole lot more insufferable in this world than a smug Ole Miss fan in the midst of a winning streak and, boy, are they going to have some win streaks this year. Now, I don't think they'll take the West - I've already mentioned that LSU is my pick this year - but when you actually start to look at the pieces that make the puzzle, it's tough to argue that the Rebels will win anything less than 10 games.

One question mark I had was their defense, which I remembered being the key reason the Rebels lost to Wake Forest and Alabama last year. It turns out I was wrong. They did play poorly against Wake Forest, but in just about every other game, the defense was actually the strength of the Ole Miss team. Did you know they finished 4th in rushing defense, 4th in sacks and 19th in total defense nationally? I sure didn't. They struggled against the pass overall, but they were breaking in some new guys last year and they're all back. Frankly, it was their offense (and especially much-touted QB, Jevan Snead) who held this team back from the 10 win plateau last year. Now, Snead is back with experience as well as all of his skill players. This could be a special team and this line is very likely 10 points too low.

No Longer Tubby's Tigers

2009-08-31T11:02:00.002-04:00

So, it' s being reported today that Mario Fannin has been named the Auburn Tigers' new punt returner. This is not big news in a strict football sense, but it is big news to anyone who has followed Auburn football for the last decade and has been wondering how the 2009 Tigers would differ from the Tuberville-coached Tigers of the past. Tuberville was notorious for his baffling and inexplicable choices for who would return punts for his team. Choices like Tre Smith and (gasp) Markeith Cooper made it very clear that Tuberville considered punt returns a simple nusance best done away with all together (kinda like offense) and, if that couldn't done, treated with sheer contempt at all times.

Excepting the times he allowed Cadillac Williams to return punts during their undefeated 2004 season (coincidence?), Tuberville's criteria for a punt returner seemed to be something like: (1) Is he under 5'7"? (nothing wrong with that); (2) Can he catch the ball?; (3) Does he possess a fuzzy understanding of the rules regarding fair catches? (Markeith Cooper once fair caught a ball on the one-yard line. This is not an exageration. I was there.); (4) Are we absolutely sure he is not a threat to return the punt for a long gain? If the answer to all of those was a resounding "YES," then Tubby had his man.

I'm sure the new Auburn staff will differ from the previous one in many ways, but allowing Mario Fannin - probably the most gifted skill position player the Tigers have - to return punts is the starkest difference I've seen so far.

Can the Tampa 2 Become the Tennessee 2? (Part II)

2009-08-26T15:57:00.004-04:00

PART II: Does Tennessee Have the Personnel to Run the Tampa 2?

Before we can answer this second question, we must first determine what type of personnel a team needs to successfully run the Tampa 2. Let's take a look at it from the line of scrimmage backwards.

Due to it's strong preference for full zone coverage, the Tampa 2 does not typically employ a great deal LB or DB blitzes, since doing so would leave the blitzing player's zone vulnerable to attack. As a result, getting backfield pressure is primarily the responsibility of the defensive front four - especially the DEs. It's really the first key to making the entire defense work. If the defensive line puts pressure on the QB, the offense is forced to resort to a short passing game, which is exactly what the tight zones of the Tampa 2 were designed to stop. On the other hand, if the line fails to generate pressure, the offense will have more to exploit the holes that are inevitable in any zone scheme.

The Vols might be in good shape here. The reports out of camp indicate that DE Chris Walker (JR - and a good Memphis boy, I might add) has been virtually unblockable in the new scheme. On the other side, the Vols moved linebacker Gerald Williams (JR) to DE, probably to add some much-needed speed to the position, and he appears to have prospered. On top of that, it's pretty clear that Kiffin plans to actively rotate his D-lineman, hoping to keep them all fresh. So, the Vols seem set to generate the type of pass rush that the Tampa 2 demands. So far, so good.

As for the LBs, the Tampa 2 generally requires two things: run-stopping outside linebackers (OLBs) and a dynamic middle linebacker (MLB). Since the Tampa 2 does not like to bring a safety into the box (they have deep coverage responsibilities, remember), that means that it rarely features an 8-man front. This puts added pressure on LBs to shut down the run, especially between the tackles. Furthermore, since the MLB has deep middle responsibility (more on that in a bit), a great deal of the run responsibility falls on the OLBs. To my mind, this is one of the greatest faults of the Tampa 2 (more on that later as well).

As for the MLB, the Tampa 2 requires a fast, dynamic player - one who equally adept at stopping a power rushing play and a deep passing play. Check Part I of this series again and look at the graph of the Tampa 2 coverages. Look how much space the MLB is charged with guarding - from his starting position 3-5 yards off the line of scrimmage all the way back to the deep middle of the field, possibly 20-30 yards from where he started. So, the MLB obviously has to be fast to cover his pass responsibilities, but he must also have a diverse enough skill set to be equally adept at playing the run. Also, he has to be smart and perceptive. He cannot be easily sucked in by play-action, or the deep middle will be ripe for exploitation. It's an incredibly demanding position and largely the key for the entire defense.

The good news is that the Vols appear comfortable with the talent they have at the OLB position. Rico McCoy (SR) and LaMarcus Thopmson (JR) appear to have the spots nailed down. McCoy made 2nd Team All-SEC last year and has 193 tackles to his credit over the last 2 years. Thompson is not nearly as accomplished, but he does have 2 years of experience. Unfortunately for the Vols, that's where the good news about the LBs ends. At the all important MLB spot, it appears the Vols plan on starting Nick Reviez (JR). I'd say it's a puzzling choice, considering Reviez has started exactly one game at LB thus far in his career, but it doesn't look like they had all that many options. From what I gather, highly touted freshman Jerod Askew was expected to compete for the position, but Reviez beat him out - possibly because the coaches were uneasy about starting a true freshman at such a vital position. Perhaps Reviez has dramatically improved since walking-on to make the team in 2006. Perhaps the fact that Kiffin mistook him for a kicker the first time they met isn't that big of a deal. Maybe a short, slow guy with lots of hustle will fit just perfectly in the role - as a fellow short slow guy, I'll certainly be rooting for him. However, as it stands, the Vols have to be concerned about having their biggest question mark on defense just happened to fall on the most important position. How Reviez (or whomever else) fills the MLB spot is easily the question of the year for the Vols' defense.

The CB position in a Tampa 2 differs from that in a lot of other defenses due to the near exclusive use of a 2-deep zone in the Tampa 2. This relieves the CB of any high-pressure man-to-man responsibilities. Furthermore, the fact that the safeties and MLB are primarily responsible for deep coverage means that the CB are free to play receivers in their zone tightly, without fear of getting burned deep, which can give them a lot of interception opportunities. Of course, that deep coverage scheme also means that CBs in a Tampa 2 absolutely, positively HAVE to be major players in the run defense, since the safeties and MLB are going to be occupied. This means they must have excellent recognition and closing speed, as well as be excellent, aggressive tacklers. Think Rhonde Barber, not Deon Sanders.

It's unclear even now who exactly the Vols will be looking to to fill the CB position. Brent Vinson (JR) was supposed to be a surefire starter, but nagging injuries have kept him out of practice for much of the fall. Besides, Vinson is a pure speed guy (4.39 40) designed for man coverage and light talking duty (only 40 tackles in two years of playing time) - not exactly your prototype Tampa 2 corner. Other names I've read in connection with the position are Art Evans (SO) (who has also had nagging injuries this fall), Anthony Anderson (SO) and Mike Edwards (FR), a smallish, somewhat lightly recruited true freshman. Yikes! It will be interesting to see how this position plays out. My best guess is they will rotate those guys and possibly another 2 into and out of the game depending on the situation. For example, on obvious passing downs, they could go with their smaller, faster guys and then sub in their better tacklers in anticipation of runs. Another thing to keep in mind is that the CBs will be essential in defending any outside option plays, something a little team known as the Florida Gators are quite fond of. We'll get to that in the next section.

The safety position in the Tampa 2 is one of the most interesting from a strategy perspective. Technically, their only responsibility is to cover their deep section of the field, but since a great number of plays do not directly challenge the deep section of the field, that can leave the safeties without a lot to do. This is especially interesting in Tennessee's case since the Vols' greatest player by far is strong safety (SS) Eric Berry (JR). The last thing Kiffin wants to do is run a scheme in which his best player is easily avoided by simply ignoring his deep half of the field. So, I expect Kiffin will use Berry a lot like the Indianapolis Colts have used SS Bob Sanders. Because of Sanders' unique combination of speed and power, the Colts have allowed him to creep forward from his tradition safety position up near the box. This is to allow Sanders to be more involved in the Colts run defense as well as giving them an extra blitzing option on obvious passing downs. They can do this because they know that Sanders is so dynamic that even if he starts the play creeping towards the line of scrimmage, he will still be able to retreat to cover his deep zone if the play requires him to. I think Berry has many of the same gifts that Sanders has and I expect Kiffin to use him the same way the Colts do. It would be interesting if Kiffin decided to use Berry's considerable talents to compensate for the Vols' deficiencies elsewhere - say MLB, for instance. When your watching the Vols play this year, see if Berry is lined up shallower and more towards the center of the field than the other safety. This would cut down on the space the MLB had to cover and, since Berry is Berry, his regular deep zone responsibilities wouldn't have to suffer. Whatever the plan, Kiffin must find a way to make Berry's SS position - traditionally not a central player in a Tampa 2 scheme - a focal point for his defense.

So, all in all, the Vols appear to have enough pieces to make the Tampa 2 at least functionally possible. The glaring deficiency at MLB is obviously a concern, but, as discussed, Kiffin has some options of limiting their vulnerability there. Next up, we'll discuss the specific challenges Kiffin will face adapting the Tampa 2 to stop the college offenses he'll be facing. Have a great weekend.

Can the Tampa 2 Become the Tennessee 2?

2009-08-19T14:36:00.012-04:00

PART I: What is the Tampa 2?

The hiring of Lane Kiffin at the University of Tennessee raised many questions: Could a guy that young and with that little experience cut it in the SEC? Why was UT picking up crazy Al Davis’ castoffs? Just how homoerotic could a football team’s promos be (I know Matt just linked to that, but, in my opinion, it simply cannot be mocked enough)?

One thing, however, that seemed certain from the very beginning was that defense wouldn’t be a problem. After all, legendary defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin, father of the new HC, would be at the helm, automatically giving the Vols the best defensive coaching in football, right?

While it’s certainly true that Monte Kiffin is one of the most respected defensive minds in professional football, it is not often mentioned that he has not coached in the college ranks in 27 years. Well, college offenses have changed just a bit in that time and, while they were changing, Monte was in the NFL learning how to stop the offenses that are run there. He did most of that learning at the feet of Tony Dungy – first as a LB coach for the Minnesota Vikings and then as Dungy’s DC in Tampa – and the defense he learned (and, by most accounts, mastered) was the Tampa 2. So, now that he’s brought his talents to the SEC, the questions are: (1) what is the Tampa 2, (2) does Kiffin have the personnel at UT to run it and (3) how will it fare against the modern college offenses he will be facing in the SEC? Hopefully, this 3-part series will provide some insight into these questions.

First things first: what is a Tampa 2 defense? Simply put, the Tampa 2 is a zone-coverage defense based on the principles of the traditional Cover 2 defense, but with a few tweaks. Obviously, that begs the question, what is a Cover 2 defense? To put it as simply as possible, a Cover 2 defense is one where the safeties are responsible all of the deep coverage, with each safety being responsible half of the field, while the remaining defenders are responsible for all the underneath coverage. Clear enough? No? Let’s see if this picture makes things clearer (warning: any mocking of my PowerPoint skills will not be appreciated):

See, it’s just how I described. The two safeties divide the deep coverage between them, leaving the cornerbacks to cover the shallow to intermediate, sideline-to-hash zones while the linebackers cover their respective underneath zones. The Cover 2 is an incredibly popular look on all levels of football (even my high school team ran it…poorly). It’s a fine, time-tested defense. It’s not without its faults, though. Chief among them: it’s very vulnerable to a deep passing threat. It makes sense, really. After all, they only have 2 guys covering the entirety of the deep passing zone. If an offense can get three guys deep (while still keeping the cornerbacks in their intermediate zones), those safeties are screwed. So, what to do? Dungy’s* answer was to create the Tampa 2.

As I said earlier, the Tampa 2 is just a slightly tweaked version of the Cover 2. What’s the tweak? See if you can tell:

Give up? Okay, I’ll tell you. Instead of leaving the deep coverage entirely up to the two safeties, the Tampa 2 tasks the MLB with retreating to the deep middle, so he can relieve the safeties of having the cover that section of the field. This allows the Tampa 2 to be much better equipped to face a multiple-receiver deep passing play than the base Cover 2, so you can see why NFL teams have become so fond of this defense.

Now that we know a little bit about what the Tampa 2 defense is, we will now turn to the remaining questions: Do the Vols have the players to run it and how will the Tampa 2 match up against the modern college offenses? Stay tuned to http://www.seccrush.com where I'll answer each of those questions in my next posts.

* Almost everyone agrees that Dungy did not create the Tampa 2 defense on his own, but rather adapted it largely from the scheme run by the 1970's Steel Curtain defenses he was a small part of.

I JUST GOT A LITTLE MORE EXCITED ABOUT '09

2009-08-12T11:44:00.003-04:00

It just hit me. No more Rascal Flatts! No longer will that absurdity be the first sight and sound of SEC football on Saturday! As long as ESPN Regional's intro doesn't take any cues from this, I think our eyes and ears will be safe.

QB Certainty - Like a Warm Blanket

2009-08-12T09:53:00.006-04:00

Anyone who has read even one word on the 2009 Auburn Tigers is fully aware that one of the major questions facing the team is who will be playing quarterback. I won't bore you with all the details about who's in the running and I won't be making any predictions or suggestions about who I think should win the race - there's plenty of places you can go for that kind of discussion. No, I'm here to say one thing: new coach Gene Chizik and his OC Guz Malzahn need to make a decision soon and, more importantly, they need to tell their fans AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

As I stated, there is all kinds of speculation around the interwebs about who will be the chosen one and all of it is meaningless (fun, but meaningless). The only people who have any real idea about who will start are Chizik and Malzahn. There's some speculation out there that they already know who the starter will be and are just keeping it to themselves for now. This is a common tactic coaches use to limit the knowledge their opponents will have about them before they play. It's a tactic that the previous Auburn regime used before the first game of last season. Needless to say, that didn't work out all too well. If that is, in fact, the coaches' plan this year, I submit that they would be making a tremendous tactical mistake.

You see, after the debacle that was last season and the epic, soul-crushing aftermath, the Auburn fanbase is a little like one of those poor dogs that survived Michael Vick's House-O-Fun - scarred, distrustful, overly-sensitive and desperately in need of a little certainty and comfort. Go on the message boards and read the outcries of the Auburn faithful. I've seen families of murder victims await the verdict of their loved one's killer with less nervousness and anticipation. Chizik simply cannot afford to begin his regime (a regime the Auburn faithful wasn't exactly thrilled to see begin, anyway) by teasing his fanbase with a coy, deceptive QB race. Any benefit to be gained by keeping his starting QB a secret (I've always doubted there was much of one) would be offset tenfold by anxiety and anguish such a move would create amongst the Auburn fans. He doesn't need to keep people guessing. He needs to throw the poor, wounded dog a bone.

ENOUGH OF THE HYPE

2009-05-19T15:01:00.001-04:00

Sorry Deonte, you're NOT the next Gator stud WR. You can't excel at one position, Mario, much less three. Garcia, it's a tough call, but the vote is in, and you need to worry about getting a college degree.

It happens every year. A handful of players are given expectations they can't possibly meet, no matter where they were ranked by Scouvals (Scout/ Rivals/ other recruiting "masterminds"). There's always an excuse for them year after year.

For Deonte Thompson, a consensus top-3 WR coming out of high school, he's been at Florida for 2 years and has 18 catches to show for it. He was redshirted his freshman year and played sparingly last season. I don't care who else is on the team, elite players earn their touches early and often. For a case study on Deonte, see Dallas Baker.

Mario Fannin struggled holding onto the ball his redshirt-freshman year, but the kool-aid drinkers thought, "If only he can grip the ball better, he'll be unstoppable." Last season his lack of playmaking was blamed on the coaching staff and gameplan (which is a very strong argument). But what did he do when he touched the ball? Not enough. Now everyone is making him the crownjewel of Malzahn '09 offense. A virtual spitting-image of D-Mac running the Wildcat, right? No.

Making the call on Stephen Garcia is tough, but he has two things going against him. One is his rollercoaster career at SC to-date. His story is known, so I won't go over it, but he's been a headcase throughout his short college career. The second thing going against him is Spurrier's lack of QB success since returning to the college game. Most of the time, you can just point to Spurrier's laziness in recruiting to figure out why he hasn't done well at SC. But Garcia was a legitimate elite QB coming out of high school. So there's more to Spurrier's demise than his inability to consistently recruit top talent, and Garcia is living proof.

There are always exceptions. See Jason Campbell, who spent three years with three OCs and mediocore numbers, only to legitimize his #2 QB prep ranking with a undefeated senior season. Cases like his are rarities though...more often we're looking at guys whose game just can't cut it in college, or who can't handle the freedom and lifestyle college can bring.

So who else am I missing from the past or present?

THE TE-BOMB WILL DROP IN '09

2009-05-18T17:02:00.001-04:00

It happens to the best of them eventually, and I really believe there's a mathematical equation that makes sense of it all.

Well-liked player/team succeeds...then succeeds more...then more. Then hated.

No one had a bone to pick with the harmless Patriots back before Belichick and Brady showed up. Three Super Bowls later, we don't really pity Brady when his ACL gets shredded. The guy's nice enough, but we tend to label these types as the second coming of Hitler after a while. Welcome to the party, Timmy.

2009 should bring a load of success to Gainesville. The roster is stacked. Losing Harvin won't really phase them, considering the amount of team he spend injured on the bench. And the schedule fairs nicely--UT, UGA and FSU at home, plus a bye week leading up to the Gator's trip to Baton Rouge.

Week after week, Tebow's going to put up numbers.

He's going to skip around the field.

He's going to keep being squeeky-clean on and off the field.

He's going to win...probably 14 games.

Some will ignore that he's potentially the best to ever play college football. Some will poke holes through his game (particularly when his name comes up in NFL draft conversations, a blog topic sure to be covered in the future). All the respect he's gained from the fans of SEC foes will slowly decipate.

To be continued...