Ugh. What to say about the Vols at this point? I took them last week - with more points - on the theory that they’d be so up for the game that they’d keep it close at home, and I was right...for about 2.5 quarters. It’s become clear they don’t have anything - talent, inspiration, discipline - needed to offer a competitive game against a quality opponent. I really dislike taking underdogs I believe have no real chance of winning the game. Points alone, do not a successful gambler make. I can’t see any way the Vols remain in this one, so I’m giving a ton of points to an inconsistent Gamecocks team and praying the Vols have totally surrendered. It’s as good a plan as any.
Florida vs. GEORGIA -3
Man, I really don’t like any of this week’s games. How can it be week 9 and we still know next to nothing about two of the premier programs of the league? Can Florida finally make the changes to their offensive strategy to successfully exploit their talent? Is Florida’s talent as great as everyone has made it out to be or are they a team of workout warriors with little actual football acumen? Is their defense really this bad against the run or are they just so demoralized by their offense’s impotence that they’re unable to summon the required will? Has Georgia’s defense actually improved from the train wreck they were last season or are they simply untested? Have they finally found a rushing attack to supplement freshman QB Aaron Murray’s very impressive performance thus far?
If you can answer any of those questions with a modicum of confidence, you are way ahead of me. So, like Gordon Gekko, I’m taking the dog with the least fleas, quite fittingly. The biggest reason? In my experience as a college football fan (and especially as an Auburn fan), I’ve come to believe that it is nearly impossible for teams to successfully make a dramatic switch in offensive philosophy mid-season. There’s just far too much prep work needed to install an offense. You can’t just scrap your spread-option, play-action attack and start running a vertical, pass-first system overnight. For starters, no one is trained for it - not the QB, not the WRs, not the OL, not the position coaches, no one. Secondly, offensive coordinators are not universally competent to run all types of offenses (NOTE: Florida fans would tell you that Addazio is not competent to run any type of offense, but that’s another discussion). Even if the Florida staff had the will to reverse course on their offensive scheme (which I very seriously doubt), I don’t think they’d have the ability to do so.
Being stuck in an ill-fitting offensive scheme is a problem that just does not go away (look at the 2003 and 2008 Auburn Tigers if you want proof). It limits your success on the field and demoralizes your team and your fans. It’s miserable and it usually takes at least a year to resolve. Georgia’s problems are real, but not as insufferable. My guess is that will carry the day for the them.
AUBURN -7 @ Ole Miss
Don’t expect any disspationate or rational analysis here. We’re way past that when it comes to my Auburn Tigers. Frankly, I’m dreading this picks. Though it’s stuck in the middle of this column, I am writing this segment last. Dead last and only after a week of agony. I hate this game. I hate games where my team has everything to lose and nothing to gain. I hate games against talented, but underacheiving, teams. I hate SEC road games. I hate games against Houston Nutt in any scenario. I’ve actually even considered not even watching this one. Think that’s crazy and/or blasphemous? You may be right, but I can’t see how any Auburn fan can watch this game and expect to feel anything other than mild relief (best case scenario) or abject agony. Why put myself through that? There’s no joy to be had here.
Still, I’m trying to fight this mindset. Auburn deserves to be #1. There’s simply no doubt about that. Auburn deserves to be favored in this game, too. In fact, the only reason this spread is as low as it is and the only reason so many national analysts are picking the upset, is because of the widespread belief that the burden of expectations will be too much for Auburn, just as it has been too much for several other teams this year and just has it has been too much for Auburn teams of the past. It’s a convenient and solid thought process. Me, I think this is a new day for Auburn. This staff (a staff once, um, doubted by the Auburn faithful) has spent their two years on The Plains proving every doubt about them wrong. Gus Malzahn’s offense could not be successful in the SEC? Wrong. Chris Todd could never been an effective starting quarterback? Wrong. Auburn could never compete with the likes of Alabama and LSU in the recruiting wars? Wrong. Auburn could not expect to win with a new starting QB and new RBs? Double wrong. I’ve reached the point where I don’t think history is much of a guide anymore when trying to predict the future of this team. Really, when you look at the accomplishments this group has already acheived, beating an inferior Ole Miss team on the road with a lot at stake doesn’t seem like that tall of an order. I’m guessing this version of the Auburn Tigers fill it.
KENTUCKY +6 @ Mississippi State
I refuse to get locked into another battle of wills with the University of Kentucky. I pick them week after week only to watch them self-sabotage themselves just to spite me. I’m not giving them the pleasure of watching me squirm.
Here (again), the Wildcats take on a team with no noticeable superiority over them. Kentucky quadruples the number of offensive playmakers that the Bulldogs employ. True, their defense has been wretched, but if there’s ever a week when that won’t hurt them, it’s this one. In fact, I’m not sure I’d ever take this Bulldog team when their giving more than 3 points. Let’s remember, with Florida’s swoon and Georgia’s early season woes, this will be the first explosive offense the Bulldogs have faced since the Auburn game in week 2. They did well to slow down that attack, but were unable to score enough to make their defense’s effort worthwhile. I see a similar game unfolding here. Look for this one to be a one-score game heading into the final minutes. I’m not sure who’ll finish on top, but I’d be more comfortable with 6 points on my side.
Vanderbilt @ ARKANSAS -20.5
Here’s another one where, if you take the underdog, you are just clinging to the points in the hope that the favorite will be disorganized/bored/injured enough to keep the game much closer than it deserves to be. No one can seriously give Vanderbilt a chance here, especially after their total no-show last week. Arkansas knows they have to run the table to have any chance to win the West, so I don’t think motivation will be a problem. Mallett showed no ill-effects of whatever concussion he suffered two weeks ago, so I see no reason to expect injuries to play a major part. Could the Hogs come out flat and disorganized? Sure. I always worry that a heavy favorite might fail to be sharp - especially early and especially when the favorite is a heavy-passing team - but I just have ZERO confidence in Vandy at this point and I can’t see how anyone can think differently. I get the feeling that everyone involved with the program - players, administration, fans - view this season as nothing more than a lame duck...something to endure until they learn where the program is really headed. I’ll discuss my thoughts on that later, but for now, I’m not backing this Dore team against much of anyone.









