VCS 2010 - Week 3

I apologize for not getting my picks column up last week. It’s a shame too, but it was a spectacularly successful week for me on the gambling front...honestly, it was! If Ole Miss had held on to their lead against Tulane, I would have pulled off the sweep. Again, sorry. I plan on making it up to you this week with a few new segments sprinkled among my usual sterling gambling advice. I hope that makes up for all the money you failed to win last weekend.

Arkansas @ GEORGIA -2.5
It’s odd to enter week 3 and still know absolutely nothing about a team, but that’s where we find ourselves with the preseason darling Razorbacks. Their, um, creative scheduling has provided zero useful information regarding the big questions everyone has had about them since the end of last year: Will they have a more productive running game? Will Mallet recover sufficiently from his off-season injury? Is their defense going to be capable offering more resistance than the wet-toilet-paper version of last year’s unit? We still have no idea. Sure, their rushing attack still looks mediocre (averaging a very average 147.5 yards/game) and Mallet still looks spectacular, if occasionally unpredictable (6 TDs and 2 INTs), but the total lack of competition they’ve faced could be falsely exaggerating that data in either direction.

Georgia, on the other hand, we know a little more about. New QB Murray has shown promise, but is still a rookie, and is stuck leading an attack without many bullets, what with AJ Greene still serving his absurd suspension for another 2 weeks. Still, if offense is your problem, then facing this Arkansas defense is quite possibly the perfect solution. I look for Murray and Washaun Ealey to have their biggest game yet. As for defense, Georgia’s was as big a question for their team as Arkansas’s was for theirs, but we’ve seen enough from Georgia’s unit to suggest they have made at least some improvement.

Not convinced? Okay, I have an interesting stat for you. As we all know, Arkansas is easily the most isolated of all the SEC schools - stranded as it is in the nether land of northeast Arkansas. While that distance has always been cited as part of the home-field advantage for the Hogs, I’ve always wondered if that extra travel distance could work against Arkansas when they went on the road to face their most far-flung opponents, so I checked it out. Since 2005, the Hogs have played 10 games further than 600 miles from Fayetteville. That’s a long haul. That range includes 8 SEC games against Tennessee (1), South Carolina (2), Florida (2) and Georgia (1), Auburn (1) and Kentucky (1), as well as 2 non-conference opponents. Their record in those 10 games: 2-8. This week, they are in Athens (distance: 770 miles), facing a Georgia team that is more-battle tested and absolutely desperate not to lose another SEC game. Give me the Bulldogs.

Vanderbilt @ OLE MISS -12
The two worst teams in the league face off in Oxford this weekend in-front of what I’m guessing will NOT be a capacity crowd. Normally, I wouldn’t lay this many points in a game between two teams that are ranked right next to each other in the SEC power poll, but, well, have you seen Vandy this year? They are depressingly, humiliatingly, eye-gougingly bad. I texted my Vandy friend, Jeremy, that watching the Dores was enough to make me question my decision to follow college football at all, much less obsess over it every year. I was only about 10% joking. He responded with a message so suicidal that I actually worried for him. It is not a happy time in Doreland.

The point is, I’m not backing this Vandy team until the spreads get up into the 4 TD area. The Rebels, on the other hand, are just about ready to start their Nutt-patented secret rise from bottom-dweller to dangerous upset threat that he used to pull at Arkansas just about every other year. Masoli is only going to get better and once they figure out who their other best players are on offense (a process which usually takes Nutt about 4-5 weeks - read: McCluster, 2009 and McFadden, 2006), they’ll be capable of beating just about anyone on any given week.

ALABAMA -24 @ Duke
This spread surprised me when I saw it and then I saw that a disconcerting number of people are actually picking this game to be close. I’m still confused. What about a 1-1 Duke team, who had a close-ish win over Elon and gave up 54 points to Wake Forest, makes anyone think this will be anything other than a 49-10 annihilation? I do not have an answer for that. Alabama has looked nothing short of spectacular in their two wins this season. They are the closest thing the SEC has right now to a complete team, with almost no question marks in any phase of the game. If they DON’T win this one by 4 TDs, it will be the first sign of weakness they’ve showed all season. I’m not betting my money on that.

NYC Restaurant of the Week
In an effort to add a few new non-football related features to this column, I’ve decided to revive the restaurant review section I use to include in the original incarnation of the VCS. However, instead of a highlighting a fledgling Memphis eatery, I’ll be filling you in on some of my favorite New York joints that I have discovered over the past five years. I know most of you won’t care about New York restaurants, but it’s always the first thing people ask me when they visit, so just file this away until business or pleasure brings you up here and you’ll have a head start on some delicious dining expereince.

This week’s entry was easy. I don’t know if I’d call it my favorite NYC restaurant (I’m notoriously moody and hate selecting an all-time favorite), but if I had only one more meal in New York, I’d probably choose to have it at Kittichai. It’s description as a modern/gourmet Thai restaurant is both accurate and unnecessarily intimidating. There’s something here for almost every palate and I’ve never sent anyone here who has come away disappointed. I would eat literally everything on the menu, but the standouts for me are the chili-smoked hanger steak, the chicken green curry and the chocolate baby back ribs. I know the latter sounds weird, but I would put my Memphis Rib Expert credibility on the line for those bad boys. They’re that good. On top of the awesome food, the place is just flat-out cool. It has just the right about of a NYC-scene feel, without feeling uncomfortable or phony. The awesome house cocktails are a fantastic bonus to what is already a pretty amazing dining experience. As a topper, it’s still inexplicably just below the radar of tourists, the B&T crowd and even most New Yorkers, so you can usually get a reservation without much hassle. If your ever in Manhattan, I strongly recommend you check it out.

FLORIDA -14 @ Tennessee
I’ve been 50/50 on this one all week, but I finally came down on the Gator’s side when I considered the anti-homefield advantage the Vols might be facing after the shellacking they took last week. I had a wide assortment of reactions to Oregon’s thumping of the Vols. The SEC fan in me was upset that a non-conference opponent was able to come into one our stadiums and embarrass one of our members so thoroughly. The gambler in me was reasonably happy, considering I had made the Ducks -12 the lynchpin of almost every one of my parlays last weekend, but not so happy as to overcome the pain of SEC fan in me was feeling. However, the Tennessean in me - the one who spent over 21 years being tortured by the most underratedly obnoxious fans on the planet - was positively ecstatic at seeing the mighty, enormous Neyland Stadium positively barren by the middle of the 3rd quarter. The frequent shots of miserable Vol fans (some even crying!) was a bonus I could not resist enjoying.

Still, no one wants to see a one-time strong SEC program sink too far down the well, so let’s all hope Tennessee can rebound from whatever is going to happen to them this year. Note how I assume a bad season this year is just a foregone conclusion for these Vols. I just can’t see how this team finished with 6 wins. True, thus far, Simms has looked better than anyone expected, but he has yet to face an SEC defense and is still only averaging 178 ypg. Their rushing attack has been quite good, but, again, that’s without facing an SEC defense and they rung up about 3/4 of their yardage against UT-Martin. Their defense looks capable, if not terribly talented (When a walk-on senior LB is your best player, that’s not a good sign. Trust me, I witnessed the Alex Lincoln years at Auburn). I’m still withholding judgment on Dooley, who, so far, has made more news for his odd off-field behavior and comments than anything his team has done on the field (a disturbing parallel with a certain previous UT coach).

Florida has looks far from great, but that’s mostly due to their offense, which I think will improve all year, even if it never looks great. They probably won’t need much from that unit in this game, anyway. I don’t see this deflated Vol team putting up too much of a fight. If the Gators’ offense can give them 21 points, their defense and special teams will probably be able to take care of the rest.

Akron @ KENTUCKY -25
Whatever. Of course, I know absolutely nothing about Akron (other than that their mascot is the Zips, which was taken from the name of an apparently very popular rubber shoe in 1925), but I have been quite impressed with what I’ve seen from Kentucky this year. With elite playmakers Randall Cobb and Derrick Locke at their disposal, I expect this to be the best Wildcat offense since the heady days of Hal Mumme and Mike Leach. I doubt their defense will be good enough for them to win more than maybe 6 games, but the games they do win, they could win very big. This is going to be one of those games.

MISSISSIPPI STATE +8 @ Lsu
It’s only week 2 and already LSU has captured the title of my most hated SEC team of the season. They’re positively brutal to watch, they have the most overrated QB in the conference (if not the nation), and, of course, they are coached by VCS Enemy #1, Lucky Les Miles. Everyone has been waiting for Miles’ ridiculous luck to run out, but there’s no sign that it will happen any time soon. This year, he’s already gotten to face a UNC team that was completely gutted by suspensions mere days before the game (and he still almost managed to blow that one) and he’s gotten to burn one his SEC East games and SEC road games with a positively delightful trip to Nashville to face the above-disparaged Commodores. He’s been torturing me since Day 1 of his arrival in Baton Rouge, a trend I also see no reason to expect to end any time soon.

So, with that grain of salt fully digested, I’ll give you my analysis of this game. LSU sucks. They really, really do. They have weapons on offense (alot of weapons, in fact), but absolutely no plan on how to effectively utilize them and are saddled with a QB who flat-out refuses to share the wealth with the other position players. Last week, I went all Sports Guy on my Twitter followers and referred Jefferson to Gilbert Arenas - gets good stats, but only because he’s completely selfish and, ultimately, he hurts his team. I really dislike this team. Keeping Gary Crowton as offensive coordinator might be the biggest mistake that Miles has made yet (really saying something) and might end up costing both of them their jobs at year’s end (says quick prayer...).

State, on the other hand, might be the most likable team in the league...outside of my Auburn Tigers, of course. They’re an up-and-coming squad that plays hard and employs creative schemes on both sides of the ball to give them whatever advantage they can in order to make up for the talent gap they usually face in league play. I hate that this game is in Baton Rouge, but if the Bulldogs are not too deflated from their close loss to Auburn last Thursday (apparently a very real possibility), I like them to keep this one ugly and close, with an outside chance to take the thing outright.


KEVIN OR CATHY???

In honor of the first meeting of the SECFFL season between my Space Monkeys and Kevin Westbrook's Finch Vanilla, I am proud to introduce a new semi-regular segment of the VCS column that I think will become easily the most popular segment I've ever invented. It's simple: First, I'll give you two quotes. Then, you have to guess which one was taken from that icon of middle-age women everywhere (and Exhibit A in the argument that feminism is dead), Cathy, and one which was taken from an email or tweet from our very own Kevin Westbrook. It will be much harder than you think. Here we go!

1. It takes me an hour to get ready when all I have to do is find the two halves of the suit!!

2. I've been waiting at KFC for 45 min for free food thanks to an Oprah show promotion. I hate you Oprah!!

Answers will be found in next week's column!!

Clemson @ AUBURN -7
So, Auburn’s given us two performances: one loaded with the expected offensive fireworks and one with a surprising, even startling, defensive performance. Which team will show up this week? I’m guessing it will be something closer to the former, but the confidence the defence must have gained last week against Mississippi State could go a long way to improving a unit most thought would be the downfall of this year’s Auburn team. Personally, I’d expect either team to cover this spread against a Clemson team that (A) has played absolutely no one so far this year, meaning that their first test of the year is coming on the road against a member of the SEC Big 6 and (B) hails from the truly woeful ACC. With the news that Auburn plans to ratchet up their pace on offense, something they refused to do last week, and also plans to involve more of its talented freshman at the skill positions, it’s hard to see how Clemson can expect to hold them under 30 points or so. I don’t know much about Clemson, but I just don’t see them putting up enough points in Jordan-Hare to keep up with Cam & Company.

Now, I’m not crazy enough to gamble on this game. Remember, Auburn is my team, which means that I don’t need to gamble on their games in order have a rooting interest. Unfortunately, it also means that I’ve witnessed more than my fair share of inexplicable letdowns against non-conference opponents over the last decade or so. So, consider yourself warned. Auburn should win this game. They should cover a 1-TD spread. They should score plenty of points. I’m just not going to bet on it.

VCS 2010 Week 2 - Special Thursday Edition

AUBURN -1 @ Mississippi St.

Before we get to the analysis, let's take a minute to appreciate the glory that is the 2010 SEC West. Here, we have the team that everyone picked to finish dead last in the division hosting a team that many picked to win the division and the spread started at only 3 points and has moved DOWN to 1 as off this afternoon. Best vs. Worst and the spread is only 1 freaking point! And, let's not forget, this is only week 2! It's not as if we're in week 10 and have learned a great deal about either team since the preseason predictions were made. We know virtually nothing about either of these teams that we did not know two weeks ago and yet many are finding it impossible to find much of a flaw in either squad. If that's not a testament to the shear awesomeness of the SEC West this season, then I don't know what it is. If the winner of this division (be it an undefeated team or a 1-loss team or even a 2-loss team) doesn't not play for the national title, then we will have the gravest injustice in college football since 2004. The mere thought of it makes me angry. Let's not dwell on it another moment. Instead, let's look at tonight's game.

In many ways, Auburn and Mississippi State are the same team. Both feature young, second-year coaches who have energized their respective fanbases in ways no one thought possible when they were hired. Both have creative offenses featuring new quarterbacks who everyone feels are an improvement over last year's quarterbacks. Both teams have a myriad of offensive weapons not lately found outside of Gainesville or Baton Rouge. Both teams will field defenses with major question marks in both the personnel and strategy departments. Both teams are coming off blowouts of non-conference cupcake opponents which probably told us nothing about either team - unless they told us nearly everything, which depends on who you ask. So, if the two teams are so similar, then why take an Auburn team giving points (or a point, such as it is) over a Bulldog team playing at home in the always dangerous Thursday night game? At the risk of sounding ridiculously simplistic, I'm going to turn to my old fallback rule: Auburn is simply more talented. I've spent an embarrassing amount of time going over these two teams this past week: player by player, unit by unit. In that analysis, I was hard pressed to find any area where Mississippi State holds the advantage - either in talent or experience. The closest calls? Defensive lines and secondaries. State might have a slight edge in either or both. The problem is that neither team's units appear particularly strong at all. Does it matter if one team's D-line is better than their opponent's if one is a C and the other is a C-? How great an advantage does that really confer? I'm guessing not very much, especially in a game that will almost certainly be a shootout. Given their talent and newfound depth, I just feel Auburn has more bullets.

It will be a good game and State could certainly find themselves with a shot to win it (especially if the turnovers break their way), but one of my rules has always been, when in doubt, go with talent. There's an exception to this rule if the more talented team suffers under a truly incompetent coach (call it the Miles Exception), but that doesn't apply here. I say it will be a high-scoring affair with Auburn simply out-pacing the Bulldogs in something like a 45-31 victory.

VCS 2010 - Week 1

OK, so I’m not exactly off to the most auspicious start. I probably should have warned you that I have not picked a South Carolina game correctly in roughly 5 years. I’ve been sensing that Spurrier has long been jealous of my blood feud with Rich Brooks and, now that I have finally vanquished Brooks, he’s stepping up to be my next mortal enemy. He’s off to an excellent start. Unfortunately for him, I was fully aware of my vulnerability to his Gamecocks and I refrained from any gambling action on last night’s game. Sorry I didn’t mention that yesterday. I’ll see you next week, Stevie.

Miami (OH) @ Florida -36
UL Lafayette @ Georgia -28
Arkansas St. +31 @ Auburn
San Jose St. +37.5 @ Alabama
Blah, blah, blah. If you can name one player from any of these four opponents off the top of your head, feel free to gamble on these games. The only two I would really consider wagering on are the Georgia and Auburn games. Georgia absolutely has to get off to a fast start and needs to break in their rookie QB as soon as possible with a tough SEC games looming next week against S. Carolina. I figure they’ll press early and often in this one and aim for a 41-10 type of rout. Still, you have to wonder how much their D has improved, something which no one knows yet. It’s also possible they’ll try to baby Murray early in the season which, combined with the absence of Ealey, could render their offensive incredibly conservative. I say this one is a no-go.

Taking the points against Auburn I feel a little better about. Cam Newton has certainly been hyped beyond belief, but he’s still a rookie QB. I also feel that Auburn will take this opportunity to see which freshman from their heralded 2010 class will be able to contribute this season. Combine that with the fact that their going up against an Arkansas St. that has given more than their fair share of scares to BCS opponents, and I think 31 is too many points to lay.

Kentucky -3 @ Louisville
Truth be told, I can’t name a player on Louisville’s team either, but I’m picking Kentucky here for a variety of reasons. First, they bring back everyone an offense that performed quite ably last year when healthy. There are expected to perform well below last year’s standards on defense where they lost their 3 best players. Still, Louisville is still suffering from the ravages of the Kragthorpe era and, as much as I like Charlie Strong for the rebuilding job, he’s going to need more than one off-season to stack this team with the talent they’ll need to compete. Mostly, though, I’m taking Kentucky here because Rich Brooks is finally gone (!!!) and I have decided to make a concerted effort to reach out to new coach Joker Phillips with an olive branch made of my gambling dollars. Hopefully, the two of us can join together and we can forge a peaceful and prosperous partnership. He can make money for me and...well I’m not sure what I can offer him, but I will promise to refrain from blasting him and his ridiculous name in this column. Joker, let’s start this new era with style. Yes We Can!

Memphis +21 @ Mississippi St.
Everyone, including yours truly, seems to be expecting considerably improvement in, if not the win totals, then at least the quality of play from Mississippi St. this season. I’m just now realizing that I do not understand exactly why. They’ve lost their two most important offensive players from last season (Dixon and Lee). Essentially, that means that they could likely be worse in BOTH passing and rushing this season - never good. They have a new, unproven defensive coordinator who will be overseeing a unit that brings back plenty of starters, but a debatable amount of talent. So, why all the optimism? As far as I can tell, it seems to be based on two things: (1) The unrelenting positivity and enthusiasm of head coach Dan Mullen and (2) the drubbing of Ole Miss in last season’s finale.

The second reason is fun to think about, but it was just one game, so let’s not let it color our opinions too much. The first reason is great and makes a lot of sense. However, in my entire football-watching career, I’ve never seen a coach’s attitude, no matter how ebullient, magically enable his QB to properly read a coverage or throw an accurate pass. I’ve never seen the collective positivity of a fanbase, no matter how rabid, empower a linebacker cover a wide receiver who’s faster and more agile than he is. Optimism is great, but it alone cannot make up for a lack of talent and/or experience. I believe Mullen will eventually get his team there, but I think expectations, including my own, are outstripping reality a bit at this point.

So, when it came to this week’s game against Memphis, I felt it was wise to throttle back the enthusiasm just a bit. When I did that, I simply did not feel comfortable laying 3 touchdowns. Sure, most people have Memphis picked to finish near the bottom of the CUSA, but they have a new, enthusiastic coach and all new schemes that no one has had a chance to prepare for. Plus, it looks like their going to start a QB with the greatest QB name I’ve heard in a long time, Cannon Smith (he’s also the son of Fred Smith, my Dad’s boss, so, yeah, he’s awesome).

Northwestern -5.5 @ Vanderbilt
Unfortunately, due to last year’s Outback Bowl, or as it’s known in Auburn circles, the Rasputin Bowl, I am painfully familiar with several of the names of Northwestern players. I know that the big one, Kafka, is gone, but something tells me it almost doesn’t matter who suits up for this team. They win with scheme and intelligence, which is exactly what I have been encouraging their opponent this week to do since I started writing this column. I’ll make my case simply again: Vanderbilt will NEVER have a talent advantage in the SEC. Therefore, they must make up for their talent deficit by creating a schematic advantage - implementing schemes on both sides of the ball (but especially on offense) that are so creative and different from what other teams run that opposing defenses will have trouble adjusting to them for the one week they play the Dores. Maybe if Northwestern beats them badly enough, they’ll finally listen to me and go hire someone who can install, say, the flexbone system that Georgia Tech has been decimating opponents with the last few seasons. I see the bad beating coming, but I doubt there will be any lessons learned.

North Carolina vs. LSU -7.5
Talk about a game that impossible to forecast. If you haven’t heard by now, North Carolina will be without 13 players for this game, many of them defensive starters. Obviously, this creates some confusion over exactly who will be playing in the game. Add this to total unpredictability (some would say unreliability) of any team coached by Lucky Les Miles and you’ve got a game that’s nearly impossible to call. Still, I’m comforted by one thing: Vegas is in the same boat as the rest of us. This line started the week with UNC a 3.5 FAVORITE. That’s an 11-point swing in 4 days, a truly unprecedented occurrence. Me? I simply cannot resist jumping on the pile when Vegas is panicked. I’d just feel too stupid being left out of what could be the easiest call of the year. I try to imagine what would happen if 8 of Auburn’s defensive starters were ruled ineligible for a big game. There’d be tears and cursing, sure, but I’m almost certain I’d also immediately check the line to see if I could at least mitigate the pain with a little heretical gambling action. The point is, you just HAVE to go against a team in UNC’s condition. In fact, I’m so determined not to miss out on the fun that I’m making this pick this season’s first Luck of the Irish Pot O' Gold Pick of the Week.