Friday, October 15, 2010

SEC Picks-Week 7

In the words of Teddy KGB, "Hanging around, hanging around, kid's got alligator blood, can't get rid of him!" And that's exactly what I've been doing over the past two weeks, just hanging in there with a 6-4 record.  Certainly not going to break the bank at this pace, but if slow and steady means having a winning record come season's end, so be it. 


Vandy/Dawgs:  UGA certainly showed signs of being able to turn things around last week, and even though Aaron Murray and AJ Green are playing really well, I'm not quite sold on the rest of the team's stock just yet.  The Dawgs need to prove to me that they can play consistent football on a weekly basis before I even consider wagering on them again.  UGA had another running back get arrested this week, so this means they are down to Washaun Ealey (who was benched earlier in the year for fumbling) and true freshman Kendrun Malcome.  Looks like UGA might have to rely on a fun-and-gun type offense for this game against the Dores'.

Vandy, on the other hand, has looked surprisingly good (by Vandy standards) during SEC play so far.  They gave up 14 points to a potent Ole Miss team on the road, but by the same token, were only able to muster up 3 points at home against LSU.  And so is the case with Vanderbilt, they always seem to keep games close by relying on their strong defense, but ultimately find ways to lose games with their offense.  I see Vandy's offense stalling a lot during this game, and hopefully their defense can hold UGA to under 35 points.  Under 48

Hogs/Aubs:  Auburn will no doubt be rockin' Saturday afternoon as the Tigers welcome the "Legend that is Ryan Mallett" to Jordan-Hare Stadium, and to be honest, as much as Mel Kiper is in love with Ryan Mallett's "draftability," the same can't be said for myself.  There's no doubt that Mallett has the physical tools to succeed at the next level, but I've seen him make so many careless and errant throws this year that I simply cannot trust him in this spot.  I know Auburn's defense isn't anything to write home about, but I get the feeling that Mallett has one boneheaded throw in him, and as soon as Auburn gets that turnover, it will be just enough of a cushion to allow Cam Newton to stay ahead.  Tigers -3.5

Cocks/Randall Cobb:  I started eyeballing this game as soon as South Carolina finished knocking off the Crimson Tide.  This matchup has all the signs of being a classic "trap" game: South Carolina is coming off an emotional win, they are traveling to Lexington to play a mediocre Kentucky team, they are gearing up for Arkansas and Kentucky in a few weeks, yada yada yada.  I get it, but the closer I looked at this game, I started to realize that Kentucky's success has all come against finesse teams (Auburn, Ole Miss).  In the one game where they faced a physical tough defense, Florida ran them out of the stadium.  South Carolina will dominate the line of scrimmage, and with Derrick Locke sitting out with a shoulder injury, I can't see Randall Cobb being able to find the space necessary to keep this game close.  South Carolina will put five guys on Randall Cobb and force somebody else to make plays.  Is there anybody else on Kentucky that can make plays?  That's what I thought.  Cocks -5 

Miss St/Gators:  Dan Mullen makes his return to Gainesville Saturday night where he will surely be reunited with his long lost lover Urban Meyer.  These two spent the better part of six years coaching together in Utah and Florida, and Mullen won two National Championships during his tenure as Offensive Coordinator for the Gators.  Having spent that much time together, there is no doubt in my mind that Meyer and Mullen know each other's philosophies inside and out, there will be no surprises here on offense.    Florida is still longing to find the offensive chemistry they had in year's past, and while Miss St is making strides, they don't quite have the speed to consistently score of Florida's defense yet.  Low scoring battle in this one, I don't care who wins.  Under 47

Bama/Black Bears:  The question on everyone's mind has to be how Bama will respond after getting their jocks handed to them last week.  I'm willing to bet that Saban lit a fire under quite a few asses this week, and you can guarantee that similar mistakes will not be made again.  Alabama has been a different team at home this year, and I'm certain they will get back to playing smash-mouth football once again.  Ole Miss is currently ranked last in the SEC in scoring defense by giving up a whopping 33 points per game!  They surrendered close to 50 points each against the juggernauts that are Jacksonville St, Fresno State, and Kentucky.  I'm banking on the fact that Bama will be able to put up at least 40 points, and hopefully the Right Reverend will have enough talent on offense to cover the difference.  Over 55

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