VCS 2010 - Week 1

OK, so I’m not exactly off to the most auspicious start. I probably should have warned you that I have not picked a South Carolina game correctly in roughly 5 years. I’ve been sensing that Spurrier has long been jealous of my blood feud with Rich Brooks and, now that I have finally vanquished Brooks, he’s stepping up to be my next mortal enemy. He’s off to an excellent start. Unfortunately for him, I was fully aware of my vulnerability to his Gamecocks and I refrained from any gambling action on last night’s game. Sorry I didn’t mention that yesterday. I’ll see you next week, Stevie.

Miami (OH) @ Florida -36
UL Lafayette @ Georgia -28
Arkansas St. +31 @ Auburn
San Jose St. +37.5 @ Alabama
Blah, blah, blah. If you can name one player from any of these four opponents off the top of your head, feel free to gamble on these games. The only two I would really consider wagering on are the Georgia and Auburn games. Georgia absolutely has to get off to a fast start and needs to break in their rookie QB as soon as possible with a tough SEC games looming next week against S. Carolina. I figure they’ll press early and often in this one and aim for a 41-10 type of rout. Still, you have to wonder how much their D has improved, something which no one knows yet. It’s also possible they’ll try to baby Murray early in the season which, combined with the absence of Ealey, could render their offensive incredibly conservative. I say this one is a no-go.

Taking the points against Auburn I feel a little better about. Cam Newton has certainly been hyped beyond belief, but he’s still a rookie QB. I also feel that Auburn will take this opportunity to see which freshman from their heralded 2010 class will be able to contribute this season. Combine that with the fact that their going up against an Arkansas St. that has given more than their fair share of scares to BCS opponents, and I think 31 is too many points to lay.

Kentucky -3 @ Louisville
Truth be told, I can’t name a player on Louisville’s team either, but I’m picking Kentucky here for a variety of reasons. First, they bring back everyone an offense that performed quite ably last year when healthy. There are expected to perform well below last year’s standards on defense where they lost their 3 best players. Still, Louisville is still suffering from the ravages of the Kragthorpe era and, as much as I like Charlie Strong for the rebuilding job, he’s going to need more than one off-season to stack this team with the talent they’ll need to compete. Mostly, though, I’m taking Kentucky here because Rich Brooks is finally gone (!!!) and I have decided to make a concerted effort to reach out to new coach Joker Phillips with an olive branch made of my gambling dollars. Hopefully, the two of us can join together and we can forge a peaceful and prosperous partnership. He can make money for me and...well I’m not sure what I can offer him, but I will promise to refrain from blasting him and his ridiculous name in this column. Joker, let’s start this new era with style. Yes We Can!

Memphis +21 @ Mississippi St.
Everyone, including yours truly, seems to be expecting considerably improvement in, if not the win totals, then at least the quality of play from Mississippi St. this season. I’m just now realizing that I do not understand exactly why. They’ve lost their two most important offensive players from last season (Dixon and Lee). Essentially, that means that they could likely be worse in BOTH passing and rushing this season - never good. They have a new, unproven defensive coordinator who will be overseeing a unit that brings back plenty of starters, but a debatable amount of talent. So, why all the optimism? As far as I can tell, it seems to be based on two things: (1) The unrelenting positivity and enthusiasm of head coach Dan Mullen and (2) the drubbing of Ole Miss in last season’s finale.

The second reason is fun to think about, but it was just one game, so let’s not let it color our opinions too much. The first reason is great and makes a lot of sense. However, in my entire football-watching career, I’ve never seen a coach’s attitude, no matter how ebullient, magically enable his QB to properly read a coverage or throw an accurate pass. I’ve never seen the collective positivity of a fanbase, no matter how rabid, empower a linebacker cover a wide receiver who’s faster and more agile than he is. Optimism is great, but it alone cannot make up for a lack of talent and/or experience. I believe Mullen will eventually get his team there, but I think expectations, including my own, are outstripping reality a bit at this point.

So, when it came to this week’s game against Memphis, I felt it was wise to throttle back the enthusiasm just a bit. When I did that, I simply did not feel comfortable laying 3 touchdowns. Sure, most people have Memphis picked to finish near the bottom of the CUSA, but they have a new, enthusiastic coach and all new schemes that no one has had a chance to prepare for. Plus, it looks like their going to start a QB with the greatest QB name I’ve heard in a long time, Cannon Smith (he’s also the son of Fred Smith, my Dad’s boss, so, yeah, he’s awesome).

Northwestern -5.5 @ Vanderbilt
Unfortunately, due to last year’s Outback Bowl, or as it’s known in Auburn circles, the Rasputin Bowl, I am painfully familiar with several of the names of Northwestern players. I know that the big one, Kafka, is gone, but something tells me it almost doesn’t matter who suits up for this team. They win with scheme and intelligence, which is exactly what I have been encouraging their opponent this week to do since I started writing this column. I’ll make my case simply again: Vanderbilt will NEVER have a talent advantage in the SEC. Therefore, they must make up for their talent deficit by creating a schematic advantage - implementing schemes on both sides of the ball (but especially on offense) that are so creative and different from what other teams run that opposing defenses will have trouble adjusting to them for the one week they play the Dores. Maybe if Northwestern beats them badly enough, they’ll finally listen to me and go hire someone who can install, say, the flexbone system that Georgia Tech has been decimating opponents with the last few seasons. I see the bad beating coming, but I doubt there will be any lessons learned.

North Carolina vs. LSU -7.5
Talk about a game that impossible to forecast. If you haven’t heard by now, North Carolina will be without 13 players for this game, many of them defensive starters. Obviously, this creates some confusion over exactly who will be playing in the game. Add this to total unpredictability (some would say unreliability) of any team coached by Lucky Les Miles and you’ve got a game that’s nearly impossible to call. Still, I’m comforted by one thing: Vegas is in the same boat as the rest of us. This line started the week with UNC a 3.5 FAVORITE. That’s an 11-point swing in 4 days, a truly unprecedented occurrence. Me? I simply cannot resist jumping on the pile when Vegas is panicked. I’d just feel too stupid being left out of what could be the easiest call of the year. I try to imagine what would happen if 8 of Auburn’s defensive starters were ruled ineligible for a big game. There’d be tears and cursing, sure, but I’m almost certain I’d also immediately check the line to see if I could at least mitigate the pain with a little heretical gambling action. The point is, you just HAVE to go against a team in UNC’s condition. In fact, I’m so determined not to miss out on the fun that I’m making this pick this season’s first Luck of the Irish Pot O' Gold Pick of the Week.