Business is just booming over here at the VCS. A 3-0-1 run last weekend (damn you, LSU/Alabama officials!!!) has me flush and ready for an exciting late-season run. I still can't believe how many irrelevant games are being played this late in the year (Louisiana Tech @ LSU -24.5 and Troy @ ARKANSAS -13.5 will not be up for discussion this week), but our Week 11 slate is certainly much richer than we had last week (even if it turn into one of the most surprisingly enjoyable weekends of the year - Navy over Notre Dame, the downfalls of Iowa and Oregon, the aforementioned unbeaten gambling run). So, let's enjoy the sweet gift that is college football while we still have it. Don't let the ill fortunes of your particular team or the officiating get you down. The greatest season of the year is coming to a close. Let's cherish every minute together. On to this week's picks:
TENNESSEE +4.5 @ Ole Miss (3)
I do not believe Tennessee has undergone a miraculous offensive resurgence of late (Memphis, South Carolina and Georgia do not exactly constitute tough defensive opposition), but I will go out on the ledge to say they have undergone something of a offensive awakening (that is, they have progressed from "comatose" to "recently awaken" - still stumbling about looking for their glasses and in need of a big cup of coffee). It's a crafty plan by Kiffin to artificially inflate the stats of his weakest link (Crompton, if it needed to be said) against the Vols' weakest opponents (16 of his 21 TDs have come against Western Kentucky, Georgia, Ohio and Memphis) - a strategy I've endorsed in this column many times before. Smart coaches use games against weaker opponents to improve their weakest areas. This develops you into a much more well-rounded team and bolsters the confidence of the players involved - an especially welcome benefit when it comes to quarterbacks. The opposite strategy (we'll call this the Tuberville plan) of simply relying on the one thing you do well to build you a lead and then subbing out all of your starters - who have gained absolute nothing from the experience - is wasteful, inefficient and bound to leave your team in hot water once they finally face a decent defense. Kiffin has created an environment that allows his players to believe they have a shot against anyone, which is quite an accomplishment and probably the nicest thing I'll ever say about him.
Ole Miss strikes me as a team headed in the opposite direction. Their season has been a utter disappointment and their offense, despite returning almost every relevant piece from last year's unit, has yet to find an identity or consistent source of production. A great deal of this is due to their dreadful offensive line play, which is a problem, because it's the most difficult aspect of offensive play to correct mid-season. That's bad news against a Tennessee defense that only seems to get better week to week. Because of their pitiful schedule, Ole Miss still needs one more win to become bowl-eligible despite being 6-3 (only one victory over a I-AA opponent can count towards bowl eligibility, which should tell you all you need to know about the Rebel's non-conference slate). Personally, I think it will come down to the Egg Bowl.
Kentucky @ VANDERBILT +3 (1)
Blah, blah, blah. Same game every year. Kentucky is probably a little better than Vandy, but no one's sure how much their injuries are going to slow them down. The Cats probably have to have this one to become bowl eligible, but apparently that doesn't matter much to anyone, because EVERY TIME I've followed that logic to make a pick, it's burned me. For some odd reason, the prospect of spending Christmas vacation in Birmingham or, ugh, Shreveport instead of at home with their friends and families just doesn't light a fire under these kids like you'd think it would. Who'd have thought that? Anyway, with no idea what to do, I'll take the home dog. Picking against Rich Brooks is always fun, too.
Florida @ SOUTH CAROLINA +16 (2)
I'm sticking with my plan of taking the points in any SEC game with a spread larger than 2 touchdowns. I told you last week that Florida's offensive explosion against UGA was a mirage and I was proven correct by their 375-yard, 27 points, much closer than it sounds victory over Vandy. Now, they travel to Columbia to play a South Carolina team that has been woefully unimpressive as of late, but gets to return home after two weeks on the road and is due for a bounce-back performance against a Florida team that has struggled to put nearly everyone away. Throw in Spurrier's rapidly deteriorating, but probably still existent, cache and I think this one stays uncomfortably close for the Gators.
Alabama @ MISSISSIPPI STATE +12
Here, I'm sticking with my other plan of taking the points against Bama for the rest of the season, which would have me on quite the win streak if not for that officiating abortion against LSU, which allowed the Tide that undeserved field goal which caused a push on the 9-point spread (the most under-reported aspect of that particular controversy and the only thing that kept me from being perfect last weekend -- I still think Rich Brooks was involved somehow).
That's what I had written before I asked the opinion of Eddie, my sole brother and long-suffering State fan. "Nope." he said, "We won't be able to run on them. It will be close, something like 24-14 going into the 4th and then they'll break a long run and that will be it." His voice was the perfect picture of confidence and resolution. Who am I to doubt such earnest sentiments from such a true fan? So,...
ALABAMA -12 @ Mississippi State (2)
There, that feels better. Eddie's reasoning actually makes a lot of sense and, when I think about it, a 12-point spread is low enough that it seems Vegas has learned from their mistakes of week's past and it dropping the lines in Alabama games. I have little doubt that two or three weeks ago this line would have been in the 20-28 point range and would have been a layup for astute gamblers like myself. Now, they've dropped the line a score or so and are hoping that no one will notice and just keep on taking the points.
It makes sense from a football perspective as well, I just cannot conceive of any way State will be able to generate consistent gains offensively. That will leave Bama with plenty of chances to find some combination to unlock a their offense and, just as Eddie predicted, a few big plays late will put this one out of reach. 31-13 feels about right to me.
AUBURN +4 @ Georgia (1)
I hate when the Auburn game is the clearly War Games bet of the weekend, but that's the case here. Georgia is dangerous. Always beware of incredibly talented teams that have underperformed for an extended period of time. They always pick the moment they look most vulnerable to put it all together and ruin enterprising gamblers everywhere. Both teams are pretty close to terrible on defense, but while Auburn's struggles are easily explained (very thin, both in depth and talent and playing opposite a fast-paced offense that forces them to play an incredible number of snaps), Georgia's struggles are much harder to understand. They have recruited well for years and don't have anything near the depth issues Auburn has had this year. They also are not playing opposite the type of offense that Auburn is. One has to assume that their recruiting, while highly regarded by the experts, was often off the mark and that their coaching, for whatever reason, has failed to properly motivate/prepare their charges for the tasks at hand. From a gambling standpoint, that's pretty terrifying. There's simply no way to know if and when that talent is finally going to mesh together and take their performance to the next level.
Why take Auburn? Well, in a game this uncertain, I like to have the points, even it is only 4 points. Plus, this is Week 11. I just feel like if Georgia's talent and coaching were capable of clicking as I discussed above, then we would have seen it happen at some point this season. We haven't. So, while Georgia is probably capable of being the better team, I don't trust them to actually achieve that potential. I'll take an Auburn team that believes it has a chance to finish strong over a Georgia team that, at this point, has to be terrified they might not even get to a bowl game.
Friday, November 13, 2009
Friday, November 6, 2009
VCS - WEEK 10: Short by no fault of my own
I am sure that sometime about three months from now, I will deeply regret saying or even thinking this, but I am considering skipping this week's slate of SEC action. This is not due to some change of heart on my part - a realignment of my values so that SEC football does not compete with my friends, family and faith for my attention. I'd never let that happen. No, this is the fault of the spineless and unimaginative schedule-makers who currently pollute our conference and who have given us games involving Furman, Tennessee Tech, Eastern Kentucky and Northern Arizona in the same week. They've also given us Memphis, but compared to the rest of the slate, that choice of opponent qualifies as something tantamount calling out the late-70s Steelers. Who thought it was a good idea to schedule these patsies at all, much less all in the same weekend? And these aren't early season warm-up games either - this is November! The primest of all football primetimes! Baseball is over, the conference and national title hunts are in full swing - there is no better football time on the calendar. Why are we doing this? Please don't tell me it's for Homecoming. Is there any more antiquated and pointless concept than a major college football program designating one particular weekend as a "Homecoming" that necessitates the scheduling of a woe-fully over-matched opponent so as not to offend the delicate sensibilities of the returning alumni? Most SEC teams have 8 home football games a year. That's 8 precious opportunities each year to visit our alma maters to see our football teams. Are you seriously telling me we need to specially designate one particular weekend to draw alumni back to campus and, in order to be successful, we have to schedule the most unwatchable game possible for them to see? This is an embarrassment and an abomination. Worst of all, it seriously limits our gambling opportunities! Where is the outrage? Where are the protests? I, for one, am inconsolable. We are so near the end the college football season. I just want to immerse myself in it as much as possible before it leaves me for what always seems like forever. I just want to create a few memories to help tide me over through the off-season of death and the lords of the game give me a slate so unwatchable it single-handedly makes the most compelling argument in favor of pro football I've ever heard.
That paragraph made me very angry. It's time to let go of the bitterness over what we do not have this weekend and instead focus on the few bright spots available to us. I'll even throw in the Memphis/UT game, even if I have next to zero insight to offer into that match-up. These are desperate times, indeed. As always, my pick is in CAPS:
South Carolina @ ARKANSAS -5.5 (2)
Probably the two greatest enigmas in the SEC face off in Fayetteville this weekend and, trust me, the location is the only reason behind my selection. Spurrier seems intent on continuing his run of fielding the most baffling team in the SEC. Arkansas is coming off what can only be called an embarrassing showing against Ole Miss two weekends ago. I don't trust either one of these teams, so I'm going with the home team, who, luckily for me, is also the more talented team. There's no reason why the consistently middling South Carolina offense should be able to keep pace with this Arkansas attack, except, perhaps, for the fact that they get to face the, um, underwhelming Arkansas defense (last in the conference in total D, 40 yards from the second to last team). To me, this looks like a contest between one team that is terrible on offense and slightly above average on defense (South Carolina) and a team who is fantastic on offense and terrible on defense (Arkansas). When in doubt, take the team that is better at what they do well, especially if they're at home.
LSU +9 @ Alabama (2)
Most people will tell you that LSU is the most overrated team in the SEC this year. Those people are largely correct. The catch is that they are also one of the most talented teams in the SEC this year (I'd put them second behind Florida). How does the second most talented team in the SEC become the most overrated? Just add a healthy sprinkling of Lucky Les Miles, that's how. Les Miles: Guaranteed to have your team operating at about 75% of its potential or your money back! As you may be able to tell, I am not a fan of Mr. Miles coaching acumen. Still, that son of a bitch is lucky. I'd wager that no coach is SEC history has laughed in the face of the logic gods more often and, not only gotten away with it, but somehow prospered. For once, I want to have that luck working my way.
Of course, this pick also has something to do with the fact that I have a hard time conceiving how Alabama will cover a two-score spread when they are currently unable to complete the tricky football maneuver called the forward pass. McElroy has been living dangerously for weeks now - getting by first on his rushing game and defense and now by his defense alone. I can't see any reason this game will not mirror Bama's latest effort against Tennessee. If anything, LSU boasts considerably more talent than Tennessee and now has access to the Vol gameplan that shut down Alabama's previously unstoppable rushing attack. Whoops, did I just insinuate competence on the part of the LSU coaches? My bad. Still, this one has 21-17 written all over it.
Memphis @ TENNESSEE -26 (1)
Like I said, I have nothing to say here. Memphis, I have heard, is pretty terrible and just looking for a place to lay down and die. Knoxville seems like as good a place as any to do that. I know I have, on more than one occasion, found myself in Knoxville thinking, "I wish I could die." Add to that a Tennessee team that seems to have it's mojo back just in time for the Vols annual November "surge" against non-conference cupcake X, Vandy and Kentucky and I think this one will be over early...and that Kiffin will keep scoring anyway.
VANDERBILT +33.5 @ Florida (3)
This has to be one of the more absurd lines of the year. The commentators in Florida's game last week kept proclaiming that the Gators had finally "found their offense." No doubt. Of course a lot of teams have "found their offense" against a Georgia defense that has allowed more points than any other in the league. A lot. Like, all of them. Remember, this is the defense that allowed the second-worst scoring team in the league, South Carolina, to hang 37 on the board early this year. This is the defense that somehow, some way gave Jonathan Freaking Crompton his groove back (or, more accurately, gave him his groove for the very first time in his life). Finding your offense against that defense is not an achievement, it's practically an obligation. Personally, I'm not buying that all of the Gators' problems have been solved. I still don't see that they have developed any kind of dependable rushing attack outside of their Tebow power package and I personally don't think Louis Murphy can be counted on to make the circus catches he made against Georgia to open the Gators' passing attack every week, especially not against a Vanderbilt defense that is 3rd in the conference in pass defense. 20+ point spreads in SEC games are always cause for alarm, but, personally, I think this one is a cause for jubilation. Hooray, I have one game to gamble on!
That paragraph made me very angry. It's time to let go of the bitterness over what we do not have this weekend and instead focus on the few bright spots available to us. I'll even throw in the Memphis/UT game, even if I have next to zero insight to offer into that match-up. These are desperate times, indeed. As always, my pick is in CAPS:
South Carolina @ ARKANSAS -5.5 (2)
Probably the two greatest enigmas in the SEC face off in Fayetteville this weekend and, trust me, the location is the only reason behind my selection. Spurrier seems intent on continuing his run of fielding the most baffling team in the SEC. Arkansas is coming off what can only be called an embarrassing showing against Ole Miss two weekends ago. I don't trust either one of these teams, so I'm going with the home team, who, luckily for me, is also the more talented team. There's no reason why the consistently middling South Carolina offense should be able to keep pace with this Arkansas attack, except, perhaps, for the fact that they get to face the, um, underwhelming Arkansas defense (last in the conference in total D, 40 yards from the second to last team). To me, this looks like a contest between one team that is terrible on offense and slightly above average on defense (South Carolina) and a team who is fantastic on offense and terrible on defense (Arkansas). When in doubt, take the team that is better at what they do well, especially if they're at home.
LSU +9 @ Alabama (2)
Most people will tell you that LSU is the most overrated team in the SEC this year. Those people are largely correct. The catch is that they are also one of the most talented teams in the SEC this year (I'd put them second behind Florida). How does the second most talented team in the SEC become the most overrated? Just add a healthy sprinkling of Lucky Les Miles, that's how. Les Miles: Guaranteed to have your team operating at about 75% of its potential or your money back! As you may be able to tell, I am not a fan of Mr. Miles coaching acumen. Still, that son of a bitch is lucky. I'd wager that no coach is SEC history has laughed in the face of the logic gods more often and, not only gotten away with it, but somehow prospered. For once, I want to have that luck working my way.
Of course, this pick also has something to do with the fact that I have a hard time conceiving how Alabama will cover a two-score spread when they are currently unable to complete the tricky football maneuver called the forward pass. McElroy has been living dangerously for weeks now - getting by first on his rushing game and defense and now by his defense alone. I can't see any reason this game will not mirror Bama's latest effort against Tennessee. If anything, LSU boasts considerably more talent than Tennessee and now has access to the Vol gameplan that shut down Alabama's previously unstoppable rushing attack. Whoops, did I just insinuate competence on the part of the LSU coaches? My bad. Still, this one has 21-17 written all over it.
Memphis @ TENNESSEE -26 (1)
Like I said, I have nothing to say here. Memphis, I have heard, is pretty terrible and just looking for a place to lay down and die. Knoxville seems like as good a place as any to do that. I know I have, on more than one occasion, found myself in Knoxville thinking, "I wish I could die." Add to that a Tennessee team that seems to have it's mojo back just in time for the Vols annual November "surge" against non-conference cupcake X, Vandy and Kentucky and I think this one will be over early...and that Kiffin will keep scoring anyway.
VANDERBILT +33.5 @ Florida (3)
This has to be one of the more absurd lines of the year. The commentators in Florida's game last week kept proclaiming that the Gators had finally "found their offense." No doubt. Of course a lot of teams have "found their offense" against a Georgia defense that has allowed more points than any other in the league. A lot. Like, all of them. Remember, this is the defense that allowed the second-worst scoring team in the league, South Carolina, to hang 37 on the board early this year. This is the defense that somehow, some way gave Jonathan Freaking Crompton his groove back (or, more accurately, gave him his groove for the very first time in his life). Finding your offense against that defense is not an achievement, it's practically an obligation. Personally, I'm not buying that all of the Gators' problems have been solved. I still don't see that they have developed any kind of dependable rushing attack outside of their Tebow power package and I personally don't think Louis Murphy can be counted on to make the circus catches he made against Georgia to open the Gators' passing attack every week, especially not against a Vanderbilt defense that is 3rd in the conference in pass defense. 20+ point spreads in SEC games are always cause for alarm, but, personally, I think this one is a cause for jubilation. Hooray, I have one game to gamble on!
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