VCS - WEEK 5 - No Timidity Allowed

No time for chit chat this week, let's get right to the picks. I usually list the games in order of their start time, but this week I had to change that because I wanted to feature one of the most exciting gambling opportunities I've seen in SEC football first. As always, my pick is in CAPS:

AUBURN +2 @ Tennessee (3)
I can safely say that I have never been so shocked by a line in all my years of gambling. Each week, I play a little game in my head where I guess what the line for each game in the upcoming week will be (yes, I got the idea from the Sports Guy). Then, if a line comes out that differs significantly from my estimate, I know there might be some value in that game. My early guess for this game? Auburn -10, and that was taking into account some possible Auburn injuries and the home field advantage UT will have in the game. A 12 point difference between my projection and the actual line isn't large. It's freaking enormous. (Note: it's actually gone up to Auburn +2.5 this week!)

We're talking about a Tennessee team that allowed Ohio (that's University of, not State) to score 23 points and be within a touchdown in the 4th quarter last week. That Tennessee team is giving 2 points to an undefeated Auburn team that has beaten a surprisingly strong MSU team and a West Virginia team that is very likely BCS-bowl bound. I am an Auburn fan, but I am not a delusional Auburn fan. Despite a start that has exceeded every possible expectation, I am not entertaining thoughts of an Auburn undefeated season, a SEC West championship or even a double-digit win season. Before the season started, I would have happily settled for 7-5 and would have been ecstatic over anything better and I remain in essentially in the same place.

Still, at this point, I simply cannot fathom how Tennessee is favored in this game. Granted, Auburn's defense is the weakest they've had in years, but are they as weak as their stats indicate? Remember, 13 of Ball State's 30 points in last week's game were scored in the 4th quarter against Auburn's scrubs. Also remember that Auburn is incredibly thin on defense, so their scrubs are the scrubiest scrubs in all of scrub-land. Yes, Auburn gave up 509 yards to West Virginia, but remember that West Virginia has as good of skill position talent as Auburn will see all year (also, almost 100 yards of that 509 were surrendered at the end of each half, when Auburn was in a deep prevent). Consider further that Auburn's defense is currently 5th in the country in takeaways, showing their focus on big plays over the conservative, yard-limiting strategies of the past. Auburn's defense may have fallen far off from year's past, but their offense has made up that lost ground in spades. This is the #1 offense in the country in terms of total yards. You read that correctly. NUMBER ONE.

How is an undefeated team with an aggressive defense and the top offense in the country an underdog to a, well, a Jonathan Crompton-QBed team? I simply have no idea. I'm going to have to apologize in advance for the lack of consideration I've put into my other picks, since my entire bankroll will already be locked up in this game.

NOTE: This is where the lawyer in me wants to add some sort of ass-covering disclaimer just in case. Screw that. I believe this line is ridiculous and I'm going on the record as saying so. Remember kids, taking blindly arrogant risks is one of the true joys of gambling. Don't let the fear of public failure take that away from you.

ALABAMA -16 @ Kentucky
As we stand today, right now, at this very moment, Alabama is the best team in the country. They didn't just beat a young, but talented, Arkansas team last week. They stomped on their throats, reached into their chest and pulled out their still-beating heart, showing it to the Hog faithful before eating it. That was gross. Anyway, the Tide is beginning to be the team that one has a hard time imagining what would have to happen for a someone to beat them - much like Florida was last year. It's pretty clear now that McElroy is at least as good as Wilson was last year. Their running game has been upgraded from solid to spectacular with the addition of Richardson. Their offensive line may eventually be their weak spot, but they're not showing any signs of it now. Oh, and their defense has been good beyond words (suffocating is the closest I can think of - their speed is so overwhelming, their pressure so intense, it's easy to imagine opposing offenses are struggling to breathe). That said, I thought the Arkansas gameplan was terrible. Apparently, Petrino was as in love with his vertical passing game as I was and has forgotten everything else - 12 carries for 2008 All-World Michael Smith? Really? - so Bama just had a field day pressing the young Arkansas receivers and letting the dogs loose to chase down the mobility-challenged Mallett. It's possible that a team will be able maintain balance on offense with a few big plays sprinkled in and gamble on shutting down the Tide rushing attack and pressuring McElroy, putting an inexperienced QB in an uncomfortable situation, but after last week's total embarrassment, I'm not gambling on Kentucky to be that team.

lsu @ GEORGIA -3.5 (1)
That (1) could not be more heartfelt. I have no idea what to make of either of these teams. Last week, Georgia abruptly shifted gears from the high-flying, defensively challenged team they'd been the last two weeks to put on a tough, low-scoring slugfest against a Pac-10 team. In all honesty, I could not offer a single confident opinion on Georgia's offense, defense or special teams right now...and we're 1/3 a way through the season. Who is this team? I, for one, have absolutely no clue.

So, this pick is mostly based on what I know about their opponent, LSU. They suck. They're terrible. Or, more correctly, they currently have one of the most loaded rosters in the country playing terribly. This will be the last season for OC, Gary Crowton. His failure to ready Jordan Jefferson and his baffling stubbornness not to exploit his enormous talent advantage has finally grown thin. In their win that absolutely should have been a loss, Crowton gave Brandon LaFell 6 touches despite the fact that he was completely and utterly uncoverable. Charles Scott, he of 1174 yards and 18 TDs last year had 6 carries. Of course, it's pretty hard to manufacture more touches for your completely unstoppable athletes when you only manage 12 first downs for the entire game. There must be a serious problem with their offensive line that I just can't see, but the fact remains that Crowton has never fully exploited the talent he's had at LSU and now that they defense is not what it was on the first few years of his watch, he's being exposed. Like I said, I am not confident I know anything about Georgia, but the proof is pretty clear that LSU is set to be this season's most disappointing team.

Ole Miss @ VANDERBILT +10 (1)
Rebel fans are simply incensed by that last sentence. How dare I steal the "most disappointing" title from them? Simple, no one really had the hopes that Ole Miss was all that great. I didn't, but allowed myself to be seduced by this most formidable of paper tigers, or Rebels as it were, in my Week 1 picks. Now, there are a few obvious facts that are working against the Rebels - their offensive line is possibly the worst in the SEC, their OC has them running a Canadian football-influenced vertical passing game despite a lack of play-making WRs and the previously mentioned porous offensive line and their head coach has now continued his streak of failing to meet expectations with very talented teams. Even more worrisome, these are not easily correctable problems. Still, it's not implausible to think the Rebs can tweak things just enough to manage 8 or 9 wins, especially considering their joke of a schedule.

But, will they be able to tweak enough in one week to go on the road and cover a 10-point spread against this Vanderbilt team? I just can't take that leap. Don't get me wrong, Vanderbilt has not given us a single reason to believe they will be able to build on the unprecedented success they enjoyed last year. Two wins over Western Carolina and Rice and losses against an SEC team that was widely thought to be the worst in the league and one desperately trying to claim that title for themselves don't exactly inspire confidence, but I'll take my chances on them getting 10 against a Rebel team that is struggling to find something they do well offensively.

Another note on the Commodores: I've only gotten to watch Vandy a couple of times (have I mentioned how awesome the SEC Digital Network is?), but I've noticed one especially curious thing about them. They're trying to run a no-huddle, hurry-up offense similar to what Malzahn in running at Auburn, which is all well and good, but their play-calling is remarkably conservative - often settling to punt and play for field position. This strikes me as an inherently contradictory game plan. If you're going to make special efforts to minimize the time spent between snaps, shouldn't you adopt a slightly more aggressive strategy aimed at keeping the opposing defense on the field so you can exhaust them? What good does it do to run a hurry-up offense and then openly settle for multiple 3-and-out possessions? Are they just trying to punish their defense by sending them back onto the field with the bare minimum of rest? It seems to me that they're combining two extreme offensive philosophies and taking the worst of each. Vandy, either stick with the hurry-up and challenge your offense to make plays or slow things down, shorten the game, play things conservatively and try to win with defense. Thanks.

ARKANSAS -1.5 vs. Texas A&M (2)
They haven't published an over for this one yet, but whatever it is, I'll likely take it. A&M has been undergoing the same sort of offensive renaissance that Auburn has - moving to a fast-paced, aggressive attack. Unlike Auburn, however, they emphasize the pass very heavily, averaging over 300 ypg in the air. Of course, thus far they've played a schedule that would make Ole Miss blush, so it's hard to know what to expect from them.

For all their offensive potential, Arkansas does not have an impressive win (or even especially close game) to their credit this season. So why take them? Basically, I'm just picking talent. Not just on-field talent either - I'll take Arkansas' Petrino against A&M's Sherman any day of the week. Also, even though they don't have much to show for it, Arkansas has already been through two major battles this season and I have to think going up against that level of competition has prepared them better than A&M's creampuff run has prepared the Aggies. I'm hoping Petrino learned a little something about his team this past weekend. Namely that even though they do have a remarkably gifted QB and, thus, the ability to throw the ball deep downfield, they cannot completely forsake offensive balance and must work the ball into Michael Smith's hands - on draws or screens, especially - to take the pressure off their offensive line and give Mallett the time to be not just dynamic, but efficient as well. This one has every indication of being a shootout. I'll go with the team that's been through the refiner's fire that is SEC competition.

Georgia Tech @ MISSISSIPPI ST. +5.5 (1)
So, is MSU tougher than we all thought or are Vanderbilt and (especially) LSU much, much worse than we thought. Sure, it's probably a little of both but, call me crazy, I think it's most likely the former. Since their startlingly poor performance against Auburn, I've been very impressed with the way MSU's defense has rebounded. It's pretty clear that DC Torbush saw some of the same mental mistakes and strategic errors that I did and made the necessary corrections. Then again, it could be that the novelty of Auburn's offense was just too great a challenge for him while the relatively familiar offenses run by Vanderbilt and LSU were more in his wheelhouse. That could be a very real problem against the famous flexbone attack that Paul Johnson runs at Georgia Tech. Will he be able to adjust to an unconventional offense?

On the other side of the ball, it seems as if QB Tyson Lee has finally claimed the position as I thought he would all off-season. Obviously, Relf is a better runner, but Lee is not a terrible one and he seems to be making much better decisions with the ball (except for goal line passes and options...sorry Eddie and Tim, I couldn't resist). It's just a fact that with Relf in the game, they have a slightly more dynamic runner at QB, but can only run about 10% of the offense and for an offense that's built on a myriad of constraint concepts, that's a real problem. With Lee running things, they grade out at about a C on offense, which is light years ahead of where I expected them to be by this time this year.

Still, MSU is certainly not a great team and probably not even a good one. So, why take them getting less than a TD against a ranked team? Easy: the ACC. At this point, I'm officially picking any team from a BCS conference against an ACC opponent until further notice. I just don't think teams from the ACC belong on the field with teams from the SEC. See, I told you blind arrogance was fun.

VCS - Week 4

Sorry for the lateness and brevity of these picks. I've got Brother Eddie in the NYC with a few friends and we've been tearing this town to pieces for the past few days - including a trip to the Meadowlands to see U2 at Giants Stadium last night (NOTE: Don't ever go to the Meadowlands. Not for a football game. Not for a basketball game. Not for a concert. Do not go - especially if you are traveling from Manhattan. It's so poorly run that you'd have thought no one told them they would have a 90,000 people descending on the area until sometime yesterday afternoon. Trust me, stay away.) Anyway, I'm short on time (and energy), so I'll be keeping these concise. It helps that this week brings us an embarrassingly weak slate of SEC action. I'll only be discussing games that matter, but for the record, my picks for the other games are as follows: Ball St. @ AUBURN -33, Ohio @ TENNESSEE -21 and VANDERBILT -8 @ Rice. As always, my pick is in CAPS:

LSU -13 @ Mississippi St.(2)
This fits right in with my common theme this weekend: I am completely baffled by at least half of the teams in the SEC. Why is a team like LSU - who has proven skill men like Charles Scott, Keiland Williams, Richard Murphy, Brandon Lafell and Jordan Jefferson - only averaging 326 yards per game, despite not having faced a single ranked (or even close to it) opponent thus far this season? How did Mississippi State hold anyone - ANYONE - to 157 yards of total offense, as they did against Vanderbilt last week?

Actually, I think I know the answer to that last one since I scripted most of Vandy's offensive series - a remarkable string of offensive mistakes. Easy passes thrown off target, easy catches dropped for no reason, missed blocks, poor cuts - Vandy put on one of the worst-executed offensive performances I've seen thus far this season. I understand that Bobby Johnson and his staff are under quite a bit of heat for their gameplan last week, but I submit that if they would have simply cut their unforced mistakes in half, they would have scored enough to topple the Bulldogs. It was a great (and thoroughly unexpected) win for State, but I'm not a believer just yet. This is another talent pick. Simply, I believe that LSU has a talent advantage over MSU that is greater than two touchdowns. That's where my analysis stops and I think I'm correct in doing so.

ARKANSAS +17 @ Alabama (3)
I got a chance to watch the Arkansas/UGA game on the SEC Digital Network this week and...WOW. Ryan Mallett is an absolutely amazing specimen. DO NOT miss a chance to watch him play. With his arm, Arkansas currently has the greatest vertical passing attack I've ever seen on any level. Ever. Do yourself a favor and watch the first quarter of that game. You'd swear you were watching John Elway's college highlight reel. I was left literally speechless. Of course, as impressive as Mallett and the Arkansas WRs were, they still lost the game. Their defense is truly atrocious. Their DBs were so often turned the wrong direction in pass coverage (often just staring into space with their backs to both the receiver AND the ball) that I began to worry for their mental well-being. Personally, I expect Julio Jones and the rest of the Alabama offense to have a huge night, but I also think this is where we will see our first cracks in the vaunted Alabama defense and we will see these cracks for the first time in this game because this will be the first time the defense will have been tested...at all. There's no denying that Alabama has looked great thus far this year, but one thing people keep overlooking is how sneakily easy their slate has been so far. North Texas, Florida International and a Virginia Tech team that hails from a conference who should have their BCS membership revoked TODAY, as in immediately. Clearly this will be the best offense they've faced so far this year and it might even be the best team they've faced. 17 points is just too much for a team that has not been tested yet to be laying to anyone. Because of that, I'm making this one my increasingly meaningless Luck of the Irish Pot O' Gold Pick of the Week.

ARIZONA ST. +12.5 @ Georgia (1)
Usually in non-conference game, I find myself evaluating one relatively known element (the SEC team) and one relatively unknown element (the non-SEC team). In this case, however, I must admit that both of these teams completely elude my understanding and the SEC might just be more of a mystery to me than the non-SEC team. What to make of the Georgia Bulldogs? First, they lay an absolute stinkbomb - especially offensively - in the season opener against a subsequently exposed Oklahoma St. team. Then, they engage in the most improbable of shootouts with a South Carolina team that has not since shown either the ability to score as they did in that game or the complete inability to stop their opponent from scoring. Then, they gave us the more understandable shootout with Arkansas and somehow come out on top despite committing 3 turnovers and only attempting only 26 passes. Is this team the defensively-challenged offensive jugernaut they have appeared to be the last 2 weeks? I have absolutely no idea.

I know even less about the Arizona St. team they are facing. They are 2-0 with only meaningless cupcake wins at home. They will bring a rookie QB on the road for the first time in this game and they are expected to be a tough defensive team, at least by Pac-10 standards. My thinking is that Georgia will be a little worn out from there last 2 action-packed games and will come out flat against a team about which they know nothing and care even less than that. That, coupled with an inspired Arizona St. team looking to knock off an SEC powerhouse, leads me to believe this game will be closer than most people think with Georgia pulling away late and winning another shootout by 7-10 points.

WHAT'S YOUR FANTASY? - WEEK 4

Late to the game on this, but not really. With a combined 16 years of SEC fantasy football experience, Sean and I live this each week of the year -- not just the season, but the year.

Here's the plan. I highlight a position match-up for each SEC game. I create a spread based on each player's average pts per game (based on the scoring system we use for the SECFFL). Then you get my prediction. It's that simple. And if this peaks your interest re: SEC fantasy football, find us and we'll give you the deets.

Jevan Snead -3.6 @ Stephen Garcia

I personally had both these guys on my roster last season, and once Garcia got the starting nod, I had visions of greatness--top recruited QB, mobile, big arm, Spurrier system--but the guy managed to let me down every time I started him. Snead, meanwhile, got better and better and each game progressed.

Just like the spread for the actual game, this one is muddy. The SC defense has been both praised and blasted, and I tend to take the UGA game as more acurate picture of them than the NCSU game.

VERDICT: SNEAD -3.6

Keiland Williams -1 @ Anthony Dixon

This one should be this close because KW has to split time with Charles Scott, and Dixon plays for Miss. State, by far the worst SEC school in terms of fantasy production within the past decade. Vandy does make it a close race for worst, but Vandy typically has a couple useful guys and a strong defense, while Miss St has pretty much been represented solely by their feature RB over the years. This year is no different.

Dixon is only going to get more productive as the season goes on, as Mullen realizes he can't execute anything but Dixon up the middle. It all starts here. Keiland on the other hand, has an opportunity to seperate himself from Scott. The only problem? Les Miles, who has held KW back ever since '07, when jaws dropped (well, mine) as we witnessed Jacob Hester getting hand off after hand off on that first game of the season (against none other than State). That didn't stop all season, and it left KW owners (myself included) cursing the name of Les Miles.

VERDICT: DIXON +1

Ryan Mallett -12.5 @ Greg McElroy

Mallett and Arkansas are unreal. Vintage Petrino -- just hope your offense scores more than your defense allows--it's usually close. Mallett has proven to be the man for this offense, and he proved it last week with a giant 40+ pt performance against UGA...in a loss, mind you.

McElroy was barely considered fantasy-worthy before the season, but he has proved his worth, averaging almost 20 pts a game (very respectable in our league). He's challenged with a lack of WR quality, especially with Julio hurt the past two weeks, but he plays smart. You won't get many negative points out of him (i.e. INTs/fumbles). He's also good for 200-250 yds + 1-2 TDs. And that will be enough to cover.

VERDICT: McELROY +12.5

Riley Cooper -1.4 @ Chris Matthews

Every season, there's at least one hyped-up JUCO player who fails to live up to the billing. This season, welcome to the Chris Matthews Show. Desperate for a WR to play opposite Randall Cobb, Matthews and his 6-5 frame have been praised by both UK fans and the media. Unlike former Wildcat Steve Johnson, Matthews has been seen by most as a JUCOer who wouldn't need a season to warm up to the big leagues. So far, he grabbed 10 catches total in UK's two games, second only to Cobb's 13.

A guy like Riley Cooper is dreaded in fantasy leagues--listed high on depth charts but fails to get the stats a #1 or 2 WR should get. That's why he went for $1 in our auction this season, but at that price, you can't argue with his low ceiling. With Deonte injured and Harvin/Murphy gone, he's been one of Tebow's few passing options...which is why there passing game was so miserable against a good UT defense. Expect Florida to get more creative this week...which will leave Cooper an afterthought in Florida's gameplan.

VERDICT: CHRIS MATTHEWS +1.4

VCS - Week 4 (Thursday Night Edition)

I just wanted to get my pick up for this Thursday's game. The rest will follow tomorrow.


OLE MISS -3 @ South Carolina (2)
Okay, I'm cheating a little bit here. I'll admit it. This line started at -3 and has already moved 2 points to -5, meaning a lot of the money is pouring into Ole Miss - like all the money. Still, the house rules here at SECCRUSH dictate that I base my predictions on the opening lines, not the current lines. Why? Simple - I'm lazy and I don't like having to rewrite a section when the line moves from 6.5 to 7.5 by Friday afternoon.

Here's the deal, a 2-point move in the lines in 3 days is a big deal. One sportsbook I checked with said that 75% of their bettors had their money on the Rebels. Sportsbooks hate that kind of imbalance, so they move the line to try and even things out...sometimes. When they move the line a significant amount, that tells me that they have no strong opinion on the game itself and are just trying to even out the action. When they don't move the line despite all the money going to one side, Vegas is essentially taking the other side, which means Vegas probably knows something the general public does not and you better watch out. If a sportsbook is willing to let 75% of the money stay on one side, you can assume their pretty confident the other side is going to win. That's when it is smart to go against public opinion - when was the last time you heard of a sportsbook going bankrupt?

However, that is not the case with this game. Vegas set the line at -3 and has essentially showed their hand by moving the line 2 whole points in 3 days. They really don't have a strong read on this game either way and are desperate to entice bettors to take the Gamecocks here. In this case, if all else fails, I believe you should stay on the side of the general gambling public - especially if you write a lightly-read SEC picks column and you can cheat by using the opening line. The phrase "if all else fails" certainly applies here. I can't say anything with any certainty about either of these teams. Ole Miss looked truly shaky against a subpar Memphis team with their supposed strong spot - QB Jevan Snead - looking like their weakest link, followed by an off week and then a meaningless cupcake blowout. I'll admit that I'm down on the Rebels. Every part of their game struggled against Memphis. They couldn't run or stop the run, which is a huge red flag for any team. Still, it was week 1 and Houston Nutt, for all his good qualities, has never been known as a great high-expectations coach. Now that those expectations have subsided a bit, I'm betting he surprised nearly everyone with an overwhelming performance in Columbia. It will help that he's facing a South Carolina team that suddenly can't seem to stop anyone and doesn't have nearly as many playmakers on either side of the ball as the Rebels do. Much like Vegas, I don't have a great feel for this game, so I'm going to side with the overwhelming public opinion and the more talented team.

COMMENTS NOW WORKING

To our unfaithful readers, our comments section is now working. Flame away.

LIGHTEN UP, CBS

First, let me state that I'm very very grateful to the SEC and ESPN for bringing us 95-100% of SEC games each week. As a fan of the league and a commissioner of an 8 year old SEC fantasy football league, each and every game means something to me.

If you're like me, you too have been smacked in the face with SEC overload each Saturday night around 6pm CST. During that hour, 3-5 SEC games are being televised by most of the ESPN channels. Just announced, there are going to be FIVE SEC games on at the same time a week from Saturday. FIVE...two of which are conference games.

Why? Because CBS has some sort of non-compete clause in their afternoon SEC game of the week. Yes, even the 2 hours of commercials they show each game are safe from other televised SEC action. Even Gary Danielson's hard-on for Nick Saban doesn't need to worry about viewers switching to another SEC game.

Yes, I'm thankful to have the opportunity to watch practically any SEC team each and every week, but it's hard to imagine that ESPN is getting their money's worth out of the deal when their viewers must choose between so many games coming on at the same time. Frankly, they need to consider switching the ESPN2 game (or ESPNU or ESPN Classic or ESPN, or even the Fox Sports South game) to 8pm or so. Makes sense to me.

VCS - WEEK 3: THE WEEK OF UNCERTAINTY

Ah, the mysteries of gambling. Isn't she a strange and unpredictable mistress? How else do you explain that I went 5-1 with my picks last week and STILL LOST MONEY!?! I can't even recall how it happened. Sometime between the time when I finished my column on Friday and placed my bets on Saturday morning, I forgot everything all the precious bits of wisdom I had bestowed upon you, except, of course, my brilliant decision to back Jonathan F'ing Crompton laying 8 points. I can't even recall what I gambled on. I could pull up my bet history, but I'm really not in the mood to torture myself any further. It's a good thing the old reliable NFL was there to make all my money back for me. Still, there's no excuse for ignoring my own brilliance. I promise it won't happen again. On to this week's picks. Again, I'll only be discussing games that matter, but just so the record is complete, I'll take South Carolina -20.5 over FAU, LSU -26 over UL-Lafayette and Alabama -39.5 over North Texas. My picks are in CAPS and my confidence rating is next to each game in parenthesis.

Louisville @ KENTUCKY -13.5 (2)
We've only seen Kentucky once this season and that was against a Miami (OH) that has yet to score a touchdown this season. As Tennessee so painfully taught me, there's a limit to what you can learn from watching a team in one game against terrible competition. Add to that the completely unknown entity that is Louisville and the embodiment of pure evil that is Rich Brooks, and this one has STAY AWAY screaming at me from all directions. Well, I'm going to take a break from all that logical mumbo jumbo and go with my gut here and my gut tells me this Kentucky team might actually be a pretty good team, possibly even the third best in the East. Do Tennessee, Vandy or S. Carolina have weapons like Randall Cobb and Chris Matthews and Derrick Locke to turn to on offense? No. Their defense only returned 4 starters from last year, but one of those starters is Trevard Lindley - possibly the best CB in the league - and the rest played significantly last year and are, by all accounts, more talented than the guys they replaced. Obviously the crucial question is at QB, where Mike Hartline is again the starter even after his Crompton-esque performance in the games he played last year. Clearly, I have no idea if Hartline is better yet, but I watched him play last year and I watched him in their game this year and I hardly recognized them as the same person. Again, I realize that's not a lot to go on, but gambling's about educated guesses and gut reactions. I always want to lean more towards the former than the latter, but sometimes that's just not possible. So, I'm going with my gut. Plus, taking Kentucky here helps complete a theme for my picks this week and I love a good theme. See if you can tell what it is.

Tennessee @ FLORIDA -29.5 (2)
I used to have a rule to always take the points in any games between SEC schools where the spread was 4 TDs or greater. I gladly waive that rule for this contest. Frankly, this spread could have reach triple digits and I'd still probably go with the Gators or, more correctly, against the Vols. Is some of that due to spite? Perhaps. Perhaps I'm carrying a little bitterness towards Tennessee after they totally screwed me last week - embarrassing the SEC by losing to a UCLA team that was the picture of Pac-10 mediocrity and, more importantly, handing me my first Pick of the Week loss in Week 2. I watched that game outraged that I had staked so much on any team with Jonathan Crompton on its roster and it's entirely possibly that that regret it clouding my vision a bit this week. You know what? I don't care. I don't care that this is the most obvious pick in the country this weekend. I don't care that Monte Kiffin has had this game in mind since he took the job at UT with an eye towards tackling the most unique offense he's ever faced (not saying much since he came from the NFL where everyone runs the same offense). I don't care that Kiffin has to now realize how dire his QB situation is and must have a plan for limiting his exposure there with more rushing and creative play-calling. I don't care because I believe that even without the gaping sinkhole of darkness that is Jonathan Crompton, Florida is at least 3 times as talented at UT right now. It won't always be that way. I remain very impressed by Tennessee's young RBs - frankly, I think Brown should be starting over Hardesty at this point - and all signs point to UT having a very successful recruiting class for next year. Right now, however, they are very much a work at progress and their taking that work to Florida to play against the best team in the country that is coached by one of the great spread coverers to have ever paced the sideline. 45-10 doesn't just seem possible; it seems nearly inevitable.

Mississippi State @ VANDERBILT -9 (3)
Vanderbilt has found a new level of acceptance and even (GASP!) respect under the direction of Bobby Johnson. I am not certain this is warranted. I do think Johnson is an excellent coach who has brought a discipline and focus to Vanderbilt that I've never seen before. However, the case can be made that he does not, in fact, have the Commodores in a position to beat teams today that they could not have beaten before. That is, you could argue that he's made Vanderbilt about as good as it should have been all along, not necessarily better. Most people point to their bowl-eligible 2008 season as proof of vertical trajectory he has the team on, but I'm not putting a great deal of stock in what any team did in 2008, considering it was probably the worst season of SEC football in my lifetime - with three programs in absolute free falls that would ultimately lead to coaching changes (Auburn, Tennessee and Mississippi State) and several more performing at levels well below expectations. The only notable win from their slate last year was an early victory at Ole Miss - the Auburn and South Carolina victories looking much less impressive in light of later events. More notable are their losses - Duke, Tennessee and even Mississippi State, easily the worst team in the league last year. Now, I'm not arguing Vanderbilt hasn't made some serious strides under Johnson, I just think the strides have not been quite as large as the general public seems to think, which is incredibly valuable information from a gambling standpoint. Like it was last week against LSU, the line for Vandy's games this year might be disproportionately skewed in Vandy's favor, which means there will be a real chance to make money by going against them.

So, after all that, why am I taking Vanderbilt laying two scores to a team that beat them last year and is probably at least slightly better this year? Well, as I mentioned in the SEC Digital Network post below, I have spent an embarrassing amount of time this week rewatching (and rewatching and rewatching) Auburn's victory of Mississippi St. last week - even going so far as to meticulously diagram every play Auburn ran enroute to piling up 49 points and 589 yards on offense. I started that exercise hoping to be wowed by new Auburn OC Gus Malzahn's schemes, which I was to an extent, but what struck me even more was just how poorly Mississippi State played on offense. New State head coach Dan Mullen is strictly an offense-minded guy, so I've got to figure that the planning, coaching and general responsibility for State's defense falls squarely on the shoulders of venerable DC Carl Torbush. Torbush is a well-respected defensive mind who had considerable success in the SEC while he was the DC at Alabama under Dennis Franchione. He followed Franchione to Texas A&M where he had, um, less success and was toiling as the LBs coach at South Alabama when Mullen came calling. I thought it was an excellent pick by Mullen and perhaps it will eventually prove to be so, but only if his squad shows considerable improvement from their performance last Saturday. I was stunned by the number of errors - coaching errors - that State made in the game. Auburn was essentially lining up and running a series of inside zone, quick trap and stretch plays. State's first plan was to sit in a traditional 4-3, which could not stop the run. They then switched to a 3-4, which made things worse. Then finally settled on the curious choice of exchanging one of the LBs for another safety and lining up in a nickel look with at least 4 and often up to 6 defenders greater than 8 yards off the line of scrimmage, basically saying, "We'll give you 8-10 yard runs, but we're going to keep you from breaking anything longer than that." - an interesting strategy for a team down several scores on the road and one that didn't work anyway. He brought almost no stunts or blitzes until it was way too late. Still, those strategic decisions can be forgiven. Torbush had never faced a Malzahn offense before and may have personnel issues that forced him into the schemes he ran. What is not forgivable are the numerous mental errors his defense made. On a few occasions, they did not have the correct number of players on the field - sometimes 10, sometimes 12. His LBs were routinely drawn too close into the interior line making them much easier for the offensive linemen to reach and prohibiting them from performing the horizontal scrapes LBs much be able to perform against any type of spread offense. His DEs and OLBs completely failed to keep containment on the edges, allowing Auburn RBs to easily cut back runs to the outside where they were usually only greeted 10 yards downfield by the poor CBs forced to tackle them over and over again. These are basic coaching points. Even teams with vastly inferior talent can be in the right place with the right idea of what they're supposed to be doing. That was not the case with MSU last weekend. Until I see vast improvement from their defense, I simply cannot justify taking them. In fact, I'll probably be loading up against them as I am this week - making this pick my Luck of the Irish Pot O' Gold Pick of the Week.

Georgia @ ARKANSAS -1 (1)
If anyone can explain what happened last week in the UGA/SC game, I am all ears. Seriously, call me immediately if you can explain how two teams that no would would pick to combine for 50 points even if they went to 3 overtimes was able to put up 54 in the first half of last week's game. If the over/under for that game would have been 77.5, I would not be able to write this column due to my thumbs being broken. Why did South Carolina's defense (which I quite foolishly praised last week) look so helpless against the low star-power attack of the Bulldogs? Can anyone say anything for certain about any of the units on either team? The only thing I feel even somewhat comfortable saying is that Georgia's defense looks as if they have not solved the many problems they had last year, which is bad, bad news as they go to face an Arkansas team with a coach who loves to score in bunches and who suddenly appears to have the weapons to do so. Still, if Georgia is a ball of confusion, then Arkansas is totally unknown - a cypher, wrapped in an enigma, smothered in secret sauce. So, children, what do we do when we have to completely unknown entities facing off against one another? STAY AWAY! But, since I have to pick someone, I'll go with the rested home team. Seriously, that's all I've got. You've been warned.

West Virgina @ AUBURN -7 (1)
As you can tell by the deflated confidence rankings, I'm not exactly crazy about this week's lines. It seems like we have a lot of unknown factors in play this week. This is pretty standard in Week 3. We've been through two weeks of football and we feel like we know alot about the teams involved, but we really know nothing because two-thirds of the games played have either been against cupcakes or overrated paper tigers. Plus, most teams are just about to hit their stride and become what they will be for the rest of the season. So, the truth is we know very little about the teams we've actually been watching for two weeks and even less about the teams we haven't seen at all. It's a bad time to put a lot of money on the table.

This game is a perfect example. What do we know about Auburn? I have watched (and rewatched, as covered earlier) Auburn football about as closely as any person could over the past two weeks. I have diagrammed plays and charted tendencies. I have read hundreds of news reports and analysis on both the local and national level. I follow practice reports so closely that I am more familiar with the health of many Auburn players than I am of my own. And yet I know almost nothing about this team. I know they have some talented RBs. I know they have a better-than-expected, but possibly still not very good QB. I know they have zero depth at every position on their defense and are prone to mental mistakes due to their youth and inexperience. I know they are running a unique, fast-paced offense that spreads the field, but emphasizes power rushing more so even than the Auburn teams of the past. The problem is, I knew all of those things before the season even began. Basically, I have learned virtually nothing in the first two games.

I was initially excited by the performance against Mississippi State, but, as discussed, I now feel that Auburn's success seemed due mostly to the deficiencies of their opponent. So, how do I evaluate how they will perform against a better opponent? How do I even know if W. Virginia actually constitutes a better opponent? I can't know. I can't know anything, which is why this is getting a 1 on the old confidence scale. Look, I think this Auburn team is pretty good and I think that last year's Auburn team was so bad for so many reasons and that very little of what happened last year is helpful or informative when evaluating this season's games. West Virginia beat Auburn badly in Morgantown last year in the middle of Auburn's slide into misery. Now, Auburn has an entirely new staff and system and WVU has lost their long-time QB and has changed to more of a passing attack. Can we use last year's game to evaluate this year's game at all? I'm guessing (and I really mean that) that we cannot. So, I'm throwing everything else out and looking at this as a battle between upper-ish level SEC and Big East teams. In that match-up, I'll take the SEC team every time, especially at home. That's about as strong an analysis I can give you in the time of great uncertainty that is Week 3. Be wise, good soldiers, and take it easy this week so as to live and fight another day. Things are about to get really fun.

SEC Digital Network Makes My Heart Very Warm

If you haven't already, you really should check out the wonderful gift to mankind that is the SEC Digital Network. Right now - right this very minute - you can enjoy every SEC game played so far this year in its entirety without any commercials. I'll repeat that so it sinks in - you can watch EVERY GAME (even the ones that weren't on TV where you live) in high-quality streaming video (complete with manual navigation) for FREE and with NO COMMERCIALS. Wasting time at work has never been so easy and enjoyable! Number of times I've watched the 93-yard touchdown pass Chris Todd threw to Terrell Zachery from the La Tech game? I will not verify the actual number, but it is between 3 and 5,000. I've already scripted every play from every Auburn scoring drive from the Mississippi State game. I'm a nerd, but there are also uses for all you non-nerds out there. From the look of the site, it seems they're planning a bunch of other additions that could be awesome - downloads, highlights, original team-specific programming and more. Some of that is up now, some is scheduled to come on line later this year. It doesn't matter. Even incomplete, this site is the best thing to happen to us obsessive SEC Fans in a long time - even if it's not so great for our employers.

VCS - WEEK 2

I can only hope that you enjoyed Week 1 as much as I did. In case you missed it (and shame on you if you did), I was a reckless madman on the Twitter throughout the day's action. I can't explain how satisfying and exhausting that exercise was. Hopefully, Matt will be back in action this week since I would most likely expire if I were to try and replicate my performance from last weekend. Speaking of mediocre performances, I went a deceptively good 4-4 last weekend. Why deceptively great? Because I actually went 4-2 in the games anyone actually cares about. Seriously, if you wagered on UT/W. Kentucky or UK/Miami, seek help immediately. I only wager on games that feature TWO teams I feel like I actually know something about. New coaches and/or QBs or teams that I've never seen play before in my life do not get the courtesy of my bets. That's why I centered almost all of my action last weekend on LSU/Washington. Oh, wait, Washington has a new coach and a returning All-American caliber QB? I did not know that. Well, I DID know that, but somehow willfully forgot it. Oh well, how about that Georgia pick, folks? Did I tell you or did I tell you? Anyway, onto this week's (relatively) poor slate of games. You'll note I've left out the ridiculous Florida and Alabama games in order to focus on the matchups that matter. For the record, however, I'll take Florida -37 and Alabama -34 -- two blowout-friendly coaches searching for all the votes they can get. Also as an added wrinkle, from now on I'll be adding a confidence rating to each pick, so as to better elevate your hopes before you lose all of your money. A number from 1-3 will appear in the title of each game with 1 being least confident and 3 being most confident. Now, the picks (my picks in CAPS):

ucla @ Tennessee -8 (3)
Look, scoring 63 points is impressive. Sure, it was against one of the worst teams I saw all weekend (Jackson St. probably being the only one worse) and, sure, the Vols didn't actually get anywhere until they stopped throwing and just allowed their impressive trio of running backs to mow down the Hilltoppers and, sure, Crompton had as many interceptions as impressive passes (2, and I'm being generous. Don't let his 5 TD passes fool you - they were intentionally manufactured by Kiffin to boost Crompton's confidence. It reminded me of when I use to run up the stats of my favorite players on Madden by having any player about to score run out of bounds at the 1, giving my guy an easy TD run on the next play.). Still, there was no way UT puts up 63 last year (in fact, 63 points is greater than UT scored in any consecutive EIGHT quarters from last year) and, as mentioned, they definitely have something to be excited about in their two freshman running backs, Oku and Bown, who were immensely impressive in their debuts. That's why I'm a little perplexed at just how low this line is. By all accounts UCLA (it was a great deal of fun writing that in all lowercase in the heading, BTW) is still stuck somewhere in the middle of a massive rebuilding process and is bringing a rookie QB (remember my new rule) into Knoxville to play a team that still harbors a grudge about that humiliating loss in Los Angeles last year. UCLA also faces a unique obstacle in going up against Monte Kiffin's Tampa 2 scheme, which was specifically designed to stop the sort of short-passing, horizontal attack that UCLA OC Norm Chow is known to favor. Personally, I don't think this one will be close. Look for Crompton to be sheltered (again) with lots of screens, short crossing routes and TE delays. Look for Hardesty and the two newbies to grind UCLA early and often and look for a complete shutdown by Eric Berry and the rest of Monte Kiffin's crew. As you may have guessed, I'm making this one my Luck of the Irish Pot O' Gold Pick of the Week.

Mississippi State @ AUBURN -14 (2)
I can honestly say that I've never seen an Auburn game like the one I saw last weekend. Not since the 2004 season have I found myself watching an Auburn offense and saying things like, "Wow, I really did not see that coming" and "I think we just pushed the ball upfield to get a last second field goal before the half, but I can't be certain because my eyes are tearing up with joy." It was the first time I've ever watched an Auburn offense (including the Bowden years I witnessed) and thought: "This team is trying to score on every play." I have no idea how that will translate to wins in the ultra-tough SEC. Still, Auburn answered a lot of questions for me last weekend. Their defensive secondary is much, much tougher than I expected - especially given they are starting true freshman (and very lightly recruited) Daren Bates at safety and that their current crop of healthy linebackers could easily fit into a 2-door sportscar with room to spare. The offense was allowed to play aggressively for the entire game - something often promised in the past and rarely never delivered. Most excitingly of all, the coaching staff made excellent halftime adjustments that turned the game into a surefire blowout by the end of the third quarter. Add all of that to the excellent play of much-maligned QB Chris Todd and the delightful surprise that is Ontario McCalebb and I feel confident in saying that Auburn should beat any team they face with inferior talent.

That brings us to the Mississippi State Bulldogs, who showed some real flashes of promise in their trouncing of an over-matched Jackson St. team. However, they are not without their concerns. Foremost among them is that they seem set on proving the old adage that when you have two quarterbacks, you actually have none. It's pretty rare you see a team with such a stark difference between their QB options. The Bulldogs have one QB (Tyson Lee) who can throw, but can't run and, more disappointingly, did not appear to have a clue about what the offense is supposed to be doing. Their other option (Chris Relf) is a much more dynamic runner and actually appeared to understand the philosophy of the offense better than Lee, but he cannot throw. Plus, his lack of experience is evident in any play that doesn't go exactly according to plan. He doesn't panic so much as he reverts to believing that he is today what what I'm sure he was in high school - the best athlete on the field who can always get the angle on the defense. This instinct will not serve him well in the SEC. Now, there's some room for debate here because one thing the Auburn defense definitely struggled with last week was the unexpected QB scramble, but I'm willing to bet that the Auburn coaches will have a plan to correct this (as they largely did in the second half against La Tech). Basically, it comes down to talent. I'm taking Auburn because I believe that right now they happen to have more talent at nearly every position that Mississippi State. Add in the fact that the game is at Auburn and I think it's the safe pick.

South Carolina +7 @ Georgia (3)
Everyone is so down on the South Carolina/NC State game that kicked off our football season last Thursday, but I actually found it rather enjoyable and 100x more enjoyable than the previous meeting between the two. Everyone points to the 7-3 score as proof that the game was epitome of ineptitude. This is due to the average football fan's inability to distinguish between a "bad offense" and "good defense" game. While it is certainly true that a great number of ultra low-scoring games are due, in part or whole, to the failure of the offenses to do what they're supposed to do (See the 3-2 Auburn/Miss. State game from last year for the perfect example. Wait, actually don't see it. I don't want you holding the experience against me). However, it is also true that many low-scoring games are due to the exceptional play of the defenses involved. Take last night's NFL opener between the Titans and Steelers for example. Now, no one is going to confuse either of those offenses with the 2006 Patriots, but any attentive viewer must have realized that the low score of the game was due to the truly sensational play of the two defenses. And you know what? It was thrilling. High scores do not necessarily make for an excellent game. I'm sure you've all witnessed dozens of games that lit up the scoreboard, but that were not actually all that compelling because it was obvious that all you were watching were two terrible defenses. Great football games feature great play. Sometimes that play comes on the offensive side, sometimes it comes on the defensive side and, in those very special cases, it comes on both sides. In fact, one thing I like to do whenever I watch a game is classify all four parties (offense and defense for each team) into "good," "bad" or "average" categories to try to determine what's actually transpiring.

Let's take last week's games involving these two teams as examples. As I mentioned, I enjoyed the South Carolina game, despite it's low score. This is because I felt I was watching two excellent defenses square off against one average offense (South Carolina) and one terrible offense (NC State). So, that gave us two "goods," one "average" and one "bad." To me, if half of the parties are "good," then the game is most likely going to be enjoyable. Thus, I greatly enjoyed watching two excellent, well-coached defenses battle the entire game, with the one facing the "average" offense ultimately coming out on the short end. Turning to the Georgia/OK State game, I classified the parties thusly: Georgia offense - bad, OK State offense - average, Georgia defense - bad, OK State defense - bad. That's 3 "bads" and one "average" - a recipe for a terrible, unwatchable game, which is exactly what we got. Despite scoring 24 combined points more than South Carolina and NC State did, the Georgia/OK State game was not half as enjoyable as Gamecocks victory was. The point is, a true football fan has to learn how to enjoy excellent play, regardless of on which side of the ball it comes. How does one tell the difference between good offense and bad defense and vice versa? You'll have to keep checking in to www.seccrush.com for that one.

Turning to the game at hand, as you know from the last paragraph, I found Georgia's performance in their season opener not just disappointing, but downright putrid. The drop off offensively could be expected with the loss of stars like Stafford and Moreno and underrated role players like WR Mohamed Massaquoi, but I don't think anyone at Georgia believed it would drop off this much. The flu-ridden Cox looked over-matched both physically and mentally - frequently under throwing receivers and leaving Georgia in what was obviously the wrong play - and he wasn't getting much help from his supporting skill position players, of whom only AJ Green appears to have any game-changing ability. The defense looked somewhat better than last year's disaster, but it was ultimately unable to contain a sputtering, obviously rusty OK State offense that also only featured one game-changer, WR Dez Bryant. Playing opposite this Georgia offense, the Bulldogs defense is going to need to be a great deal better if Georgia is going to avoid a losing season. Personally, I don't see that happening. I'm looking for this one to be close - mostly because it's hard to see how either team will score more than 20 points - and in close games, always take the points.

Vanderbilt @ LSU -14.5 (1)
My continuing deathmatch with Rich Brooks has had many terrifying consequences, but the most underrated among them is that I have been too distracted to properly focus on the work of Coach Les Miles or, as I call him, The Scourge of Gamblers Everywhere. You see, gambling is an inexact science. All you can do is determine which team is better and by how much and then just back the probability that the better team will win and the worse team will lose. The Scourge complicates things by routinely having his team perform substantially below their talent level, while also scattering in some truly dominant and/or terrible performances to keep everyone off-balance. Take last season for instance, The Scourge skillfully sets everyone up with consecutive losses to woefully over-matched Ole Miss and Arkansas only to rebound with a 35-point smashing of a hot Georgia Tech team that everyone in America had picked to cover. Well, he seems to be back to his old tricks right off the bat in 2009 - presiding over a tense 8-point victory against a team with approximately half the talent LSU has. As is the pattern during his tenure, The Scourge's team appeared to have spent the entirety of the fall practice sleeping, playing in the Louisiana swamps or possibly watching the noir classics of the 1940s - anything but practicing football. It's as if he realizes how superior his talent is to just about everyone else he will face and figures, why practice when there's so many other wonderful things to do in this world?

So, why take them giving 14.5 against a Vanderbilt team that has tasted victory and must be taken seriously by everyone now? Simple - because LSU is 5 times as talented as Vanderbilt. What do you want from me? I simply cannot pick against a team with such a decided talent advantage. Add to that the fact that the Scourge must realize that everyone is giving Vandy a shot here because of LSU's performance last week, and I'm betting he's primed to unleash one of his patented unexpected blowouts that should be much more common from this team and which will force us to overrate them for the next few weeks. Or, is that just what he wants me to think?

The Vice Commissioner Speaks Again - Week 1 Picks

Note to the reader: This week was supposed to mark the debut of a all new picks post where Matt and I would write out picks and analysis together, but Matt has gone on a pilgrimage to Denver to spend some time with the patron saint of SECCRUSH, Jim Ryan. So, for at least one more week, it will just be me providing my insight to satisfy your gambling jones. Yes, for now, the Vice Commissioner still Speaks...

Note to the reader #2: I wrote this first pick earlier this week, I promise. If you truly don't believe me, I'll be happy to email you my winning bet slip as proof. Now, onto the picks (as always, my pick is in CAPS):

SOUTH CAROLINA +4.5 @ NC State
Maybe the smartest move by the football scheduling gods was putting this otherwise blah-worthy match-up on the Thursday of opening week (worst move: the entirety of the Ole Miss non-conference schedule). I cannot put into words how awful last year's match-up was. It almost put me off of the 2008 season before it started (which, in retrospect, might not have been such a bad thing). It was so awful that I swore I'd never watch another NC State game for the rest of my life. I meant it too. Then, they went ahead and scheduled this thing as the season opener and, after a long, dry, seemingly endless off-season, and I once again find myself so happy to see any college football that I will happily lap up every single second of this game like a thirsty dog. Well played, scheduling gods.

As stated, last year's contest was awful to watch. This was partly because every South Carolina game in the Spurrier era has been awful to watch, but it is mostly because the NC State team that played in that game was the worst Div. 1 football team I have ever seen. Ever. Now, I know they didn't have their starting QB and I know they were very young on defense, but I've seen a great number of teams with those kinds of problems and I have never seen any of them play as badly as NC State did last year. I fully expected them to lose every game they played by at least 4 touchdowns. I expected their entire roster to be cut and their entire coaching staff to be fired by year's end. I wouldn't have been terribly surprised if they had just decided to dissolve their football program entirely. Well, apparently that didn't happen. Somehow, that team won 6 games last year, including a 4-game stretch of wins against ACC powerhouses Duke, Wake Forest, North Carolina and Miami that have them positioned as a darkhorse to take the conference title this year (The ACC - Gotta Love It!!!). Well, I ain't buying it. Throw in the fact that this South Carolina team is easily the most talented that Spurrier has ever had at SC and I like the Gamecocks to take this one outright. WARNING: I am fairly certain that I incorrectly picked every single South Carolina game last year. Clearly, Spurrier realized he couldn't actually win the SEC with the team he had last year, so he decided to have some fun and f%@k with me instead. Well played, Old Ball Coach. As a revenge, I plan on picking you to win outright every week of this season. How you like that?

Kentucky v. MIAMI (OH) +15
And speaking of coaches who seem to go to extraordinary lengths just to f@!k with me, here comes my old nemesis, Rich Brooks. Regular readers of the VCS will remember the many colorful battles I've had with this old bastard. We've been slugging at each other for years now. He's cost me plenty of money and I like to think I've gotten in my fair share of shots as well. Frankly, we've been enemies for so long now, we've developed a sort of “hate respect” for one another. Now, he's talking about this being his last year at UK. You are not fooling me, old friend. You and I both know that you will be around for another 100 years to haunt my dreams and my bankroll. You will not stop until you have me broke and swearing off gambling for life. So, please Rich, back off the patronizing retirement talk. You owe me better than that.

Still, I'm picking against you this week. The general consensus about UK is that no one can reach a consensus on how they're going to be this year. How much, if any, has Hartline improved? Will Cobb be able to contribute from the WR spot? Have they finally found some sort of running threat? For me, that's just too many questions to lay 2+ scores in a game against a young, but traditionally stout program at a neural location (By the way, why is UK playing Miami in a neutral location? How can this possibly benefit the team financially or otherwise? You're giving up a home game to battle the Redhawks in Cincinatti? Pointless.). Our rivalry continues, Rich.

WESTERN KENTUCKY +30 @ Tennessee
Have I mentioned how much I hate picking Week 1 games? What does anyone know for sure about Tennessee right now (besides the ins and outs of the Tampa 2 defense they plan to run, of course)? They have an entirely new staff with entirely new schemes, question marks at multiple key positions and a plan to play several true freshman. Add that relative uncertainty to the absolute uncertainty I have about Western Kentucky, and I'll admit I'm betting a bit blind here.

So, why side with the huge underdog? Well, all of those question marks I just outlined, they're on offense. If Tennessee is capable of scoring 30 points against anyone without the help of a few defensive touchdowns, then Kiffin's debut must be considered a rousing success. On top of that, Week 1 of the college football season is your #1 source for craptastic offensive performances. As I've said before, college teams do not get nearly enough preseason practices to adequately install and rehearse the complicated schemes teams are running these days. Recently, I watched a re-broadcast of the 1986 Auburn/Texas A&M bowl game. Including both teams, I counted 11 different offensive plays. 11. As I tweeted, it was barely recognizable as football. Teams nowadays will install more plays than that on the first day of fall practice. They do not have enough time to get it right. Defense, alternatively, is easier to install since it is largely reactive in nature. Thus, the crappy offenses in week 1. Take the points and thank me later.

Georgia @ OKLAHOMA ST. -5
I've always hated picking against Richt in non-conference games. It's my opinion that no coach in the SEC is better at preparing his team for non-conference games than Richt (though Meyer is mounting a strong challenge for that title). Whenever SEC teams play out of conference, and the game isn't against a traditional rival (e.g., UGA/GA Tech), they are always going to face a motivation deficit. The SEC is the big dog of college conferences and everyone knows it. Teams who get a shot at an SEC school know they have a chance to score one against the best conference in football. It's always going to mean more to them. The SEC team looks at it the other way: everything to lose, nothing to gain. Richt has done a wonderful job of keeping him team emotionally even.

Still, this game runs right up against my new rule: never trust a rookie QB. Look at last season, which teams disappointed? Auburn, Tennessee, LSU, Georgia, South Carolina. All but one started a rookie QB. Throw in teams running new schemes and you can add Arkansas and Kentucky into that mix. Who exceeded expectations? Vanderbilt, Florida and Alabama. All played QBs with experience. Sure, it's a small sample size, but it makes sense, so I'm going to see if I can ride it to a few wins this season. Georgia starts this season with rookie Joe Cox (a senior rookie, but a rookie nonetheless) and he starts against a talented, motivated team on the road. On top of all that, the word is now that he might have the damn Bird Flu! I'm sure not backing him. In fact, I'm going to make this one my Luck of the Irish Pot O' Gold Pick of the Week.

Louisiana Tech @ AUBURN -13.5
A lot of your edgy pundits are picking La Tech in the outright upset in this one. It's not happening. Those pundits point to La Tech's 8 wins last year. They fail to mention they beat absolutely no one (sorry State fans) and their losses included a 14-7 embarrassment to Army. Those pundits point to the 8 returning starters La Tech has on defense. They fail to mention that they are returning from a defense that allowed more than 30 points per game when they faced a team that finished with a winning record. Auburn may not have much (read: any) depth, but what they have will be faster and stronger than whatever La Tech has.

So, what to make of the new Auburn regime. No one knows for sure. Anyone who pretends differently is lying. However, one think I feel comfortable predicting is that this Auburn team will be the most united we've seen in several years. As painful as the Tuberville switch was to all Auburn fans (myself definitely included), it's clear at this point that it had to be done. For whatever reason, he and his staff had lost the passion it takes to maintain an SEC football program, especially considering the heights he had taken the Auburn program to. I'm betting that that unity will be enough to put away an overrated opponent and to do so handily.

VIRGINIA TECH +6.5 vs. Alabama
This game couldn't possibly interest me any less. Two boring teams with hard-ass coaches. They do have two great defenses and limit-the-damage offenses. Taking the points is never a bad decision in a defensive struggle. Throw in my new rule re: rookie quarterbacks, and it becomes pretty clear. personally, I won't go anywhere near this game, though I will watch it (Who am I kidding? The least interesting SEC game is 100x more appealing than anything else I'll have going on). I just know I'd feel better having the points.

LSU – 17.5 @ Washington
The easy runner-up for Pick of the Week honors. LSU is my pick to take the West this year and I seem to be alone in that respect. One down year and everyone seems to forget this team is LOADED. Sure, they have a terrible coach who fails to prepare this team and constantly leads them to underachieving seasons. Wait, what was my point? Oh yeah, this is one of the 10 most talented teams in the country facing off against one of the 20 least talented. Washington went 0-12 last year. ZERO AND TWELVE. They were CRUSHED by such powerhouses as Arizona and Notre Dame. Not only did they lose 12 games, they would have covered this 17.5 line in only 3 of them. They were so bad that they went from sad to funny to sad to hilarious to downright depressing.

LSU on the other had simply has to be better than they were last year. They've finally settled on the QB they should have started from the beginning, Jordan Jefferson (remember, bad coach), and they've brought in John Chavis to run the defense. Chavis, for all his faults – and there are many – he has never featured a truly bad defense. Sure, any talented and creative team will still have success against him, but Washington doesn't fit that bill.

OLE MISS -17 @ Memphis
The Ole Miss hype is accurate...mostly. A lot of people will hate reading that and with good reason. There's not a whole lot more insufferable in this world than a smug Ole Miss fan in the midst of a winning streak and, boy, are they going to have some win streaks this year. Now, I don't think they'll take the West - I've already mentioned that LSU is my pick this year - but when you actually start to look at the pieces that make the puzzle, it's tough to argue that the Rebels will win anything less than 10 games.

One question mark I had was their defense, which I remembered being the key reason the Rebels lost to Wake Forest and Alabama last year. It turns out I was wrong. They did play poorly against Wake Forest, but in just about every other game, the defense was actually the strength of the Ole Miss team. Did you know they finished 4th in rushing defense, 4th in sacks and 19th in total defense nationally? I sure didn't. They struggled against the pass overall, but they were breaking in some new guys last year and they're all back. Frankly, it was their offense (and especially much-touted QB, Jevan Snead) who held this team back from the 10 win plateau last year. Now, Snead is back with experience as well as all of his skill players. This could be a special team and this line is very likely 10 points too low.