VCS - WEEK 8

I'm glad to say that I feel a little better about this week's action, although it doesn't seem to matter how I feel about the lines at all. I could not have felt worse about last week's lines and I still went 4-2, though I somehow again failed to make any money. Well, whatever it's worth, I feel much more optimistic about this week, so you should all be gearing up to mock me more than usual after I crash and burn on Saturday, which apparently you love to do, especially when my misses involve my beloved Auburn Tigers. I really appreciate that by the way, fellas. There's nothing like writing a column where you pick your team to win, actually backing up your pick with your own money only to then watch both your money and your heart go up in flames when your team loses and then having to hear about it over and over again from the people you are hoping to entertain. I don't remember anyone writing to thank me for the Auburn/Tennessee gift a couple of weeks ago or a single phone call praising me for seeing the Arkansas and South Carolina surprise covers last week, but I pick Auburn to beat a team they haven't lost to in 43 years and suddenly my inbox is stuffed full with helpful reminders of my mistake. With friends like this, indeed.

I haven't lost hope though. I'm going to keep plugging along. All the negativity in the world isn't going to stop the VCS Train. I hope you enjoy this week's installment. For some reason, it was especially fun to write. As always, my picks are in CAPS:

ARKANSAS +6 @ Ole Miss (3)
Easily the most surprising line of the week. I just cannot fathom how an easier-than-it-looked blowout of a pretty terrible UAB team puts Ole Miss in position to be favored over a team that in the past two weeks has blown out Auburn at home and beaten Florida at Florida (Yes, I'm giving the Hogs a victory in that game. No rational person capable of recognizing such an obvious officiating meltdown can possibly think otherwise). I'm confused. Doesn't Ole Miss still have a gaping wound where their offensive line should be? Isn't it disconcerting that even against such weak competition they could still only manage 163 yards rushing with no single back going over 60 yards? Does one good game suddenly restore the burning oil tanker of a disaster that has been the season of Jevan Snead? I say no. For my money, Arkansas is easily the second best team in the West right now, behind only Alabama. I'll say this again: this team is LOADED. It's just a matter of waiting for their many excellent players to become seasoned enough to play somewhere near their potential. I think they're pretty close.

The one interesting argument in favor of the Rebels here is that Arkansas might be depressed from a morale perspective following the crushing (and, as mentioned, totally unjust) loss to the Gators last weekend. That could certainly be true, but I have trouble believing that a team that's already lost twice this season would have so much invested in one game. The mental and emotional readiness of a team is a significant factor in college football (see Auburn two weeks ago at Arkansas), but it is also nearly impossible to identify. Unless I have a clear sense that a team is on an emotional downswing, I find it's better to ignore such amorphous concepts altogether and just pick the game in straight football terms. Here, that means a victory for the Hogs and another dispiriting loss for the fallen Rebs.

TENNESSEE +15.5 @ Alabama (2)
All those warning signs I discussed last weekend about Bama? There's still in play. McElroy is officially struggling and is being continuously bailed out by his rushing attack - or, more accurately, by opposing defensive coordinators' collective refusal to stack against the run and force McElroy to beat them through the air. That's a trend I see ending this week. This strikes me as the perfect match-up for Tennessee (admittedly, that's not saying much). They get to play a team that can't score in bunches and is content to engage in a run-shortened, defensive battle, which just happens to be the only type of game Tennessee can play. I'm not looking for any miracles from Crompton (which is very, very good for me), I just think Monte Kiffin will put just enough on the shoulders of McElroy to make this one ugly. Ugly and close. And, as the time honored gambling rule says, Ugly + Close + 15.5 point spread = TAKE THE POINTS.

La Monroe @ KENTUCKY -16.5 (1)
I'm not writing about this game. In fact, I may ban Rich Brooks from my column permanently. It's bad enough that he has been torturing me here for years, but when he took our little spat onto the playing field and embarrassed my Auburn Tigers on national TV just to spite me, well, I'm drawing a line in the sand. Across this line, you do not cross.

Vanderbilt @ SOUTH CAROLINA -12.5 (2)
Vanderbilt is bad. This, in and of itself, is nothing new. However, it is my contention that this year's Vandy badness is something of a different animal than previous years' Vandy badness. Before, they were the plucky little underdog who was deceptively good at a few things, always fought hard and made those JP games much, much closer than they deserved to be (forcing us all to sit through an entire Dave-centric broadcast) only to spectacularly combust at the end and allow MAJOR FAVORITE TEAM X to escape unharmed. That Vandy we all knew and loved didn't win much, but boy howdy did they have some spectacular covers over the years. JP Vandy was almost guaranteed to cover any double-digit spread that dared face them in the late morning hours. Unfortunately, that Vandy is dead. The new Vandy is still surprisingly good at a few things (namely, pass defense), but the unmitigated disaster that is the Vandy offense seems to have excised a remarkable amount of that underdog pluck from the Vandy consciousness. You'd think decades of losing would have conditioned the Dores faithful to accept their weekly meltdowns with meek resignation, but this has not been the case. I guess the brief taste of winning they experienced last season created a bigger thirst for more of the same than anyone anticipated, because I've sensed a whole new level of anger and resentment from the Dore faithful (read: Jeremy K.) about the traditional Vandy losing than I've ever sensed before. Those yuppies are pissed! I haven't seen Vandy people this upset since the two Starbucks on 21st Ave. stopped selling pumpkin lattes immediately after Halloween in 2003. This type of negativity does not stay self-contained within the fan base, trust me. So, if it hasn't already happened, the defense will start to wonder exactly why they're busting their butts all game only to watch their offense politely refuse to move the ball towards the opponent's end of the field. I'm putting Vanderbilt on a "Tuberville/Franklin Full Meltdown Alert" and teams on meltdown alert do not get picked to cover on the road.

Auburn @ LSU -7.5 (2)
I'm not going to bother looking at my past columns to see for sure (that's the kind of hard-nosed research that the VCS just doesn't do), but I'm almost certain that I've taken Auburn in every column so far this season. That strategy was working very well at the beginning of the season when the Tigers boasted the number 1 offense in the country and were surprising teams with huge offensive outputs and a refusal to leave points on the field. The past couple of weeks? Not so much. The accepted theory concerning the offense's sudden and complete impotence (sorry for the unpleasant imagery, but no term fits the situation better) is that QB Chris Todd has somehow re-injured or just worn out his throwing shoulder leaving the passing game in utter ruins and allowing defenses to load up on the rushing attack. That sounds like as good an explanation as any, but I have trouble putting my full faith in it. I've kept relatively silent on the performance of new OC Gus Malzahn this season. Most college football writers have spent the early part of this season tossing out effusive praise for him like it was cheap candy, with the word "genius" being used an embarrassing number of times, even by today's loose standards. Look, there's no doubt that what Malzahn has accomplished with this set of players is impressive, but I think the light being shone upon him seemed a little brighter than it actually was because of the eternal darkness the Auburn faithful were forced to walk through during the 2008 debacle. His formations are creative, his incorporation of a power running scheme into multiple spread sets is inspired, but it has always seemed to me that his system lacks a certain sophistication that an offense must have in order to succeed consistently in a league as tough as the SEC. For example, his passing schemes appear particularly unevolved - incorporating little more than the standard route tree that every receiver learns on his first ever day of practice and, more problematically, relying entirely too much on the individual ability of the WRs to get open on their own (a serious mistake given his current crop of receivers). All of this could be because of time or personnel limitations that have been placed on him this season and, as an Auburn fan, I'm more than willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and the time he needs to grow into a truly great offensive mind, but I just don't see how that's going to happen this year, especially with a QB who does not seem capable of performing well anymore. Have I closed the book on the 2009 Auburn Tigers? Not at all. I picked this team for a 7-5 season and that seems to be exactly where they are headed. I think they still have the capacity to surprise several of the teams left on their schedule, but I don't think it will happen this week.

Remember, this is an LSU with tremendous talent. Sure, they're terribly coached (I believe that LSU OC Gary Crowton will almost certainly be replaced a year's end), but they are also playing at home, at night with all of their SEC West hopes on the line. This is NOT the ideal environment in which to try and rejuvenate a struggling offense with an insecure (as possibly lame) QB. Plus, it's a great matchup for LSU. They have certainly struggled offensively, but their multi-headed rushing attack is perfectly situated to exploit a paper-thin Auburn defense that surrendered 282 yards on the ground to a Kentucky team that did not even have a quarterback (VCL bangs head on desk, gently sobs). I'm not sure LSU has it in them to blow anyone out, but if they're going to do it against any SEC team this season, I'm afraid this is the time, Tiger Stadium is the place and my beloved Auburn Tigers just might be the team.

Florida @ MISSISSIPPI STATE +23 (3)
The trendiest pick of the week. You've got a giant who's struggling with some unforeseen limitations and who, many suspect, might finally be starting to doubt itself. You've got the new head coach going against his former school. You've got key injuries (Brandon Spikes). You've got a impressive and inexplicable historical precedent (UF has not won in Starkville since 1985). All of this has everyone - EVERYONE - smelling blood in the water for a potential upset of the Gators and, if an actual Bulldog victory is a possibility, then Bulldogs +23 must be a mortal lock, right?

Usually, all of this would have me running - nah, sprinting - towards the favorite. As a gambler, you really don't want to get caught up in a swell of public opinion. Here's the rule: bookies are not losing money. When they set a line like this - one that flies flagrantly in the face of the prevailing public opinion (yeah alliterations!) - you don't want to get sucked into following the crowd. It almost feels like a sneak attack; some sort of deceptive misdirection where all the gamblers zig, the teams zag and the bookies zog us all (10 VCS Rubles to anyone who gets that reference).

So, why am I backing the popular underdog here? Simple, it makes great football sense to expect a close game here. The proof is now definitive - there's simply no more arguing that Florida's offense is seriously limited at this point in the season and, worse still, is not showing signs of improving. They have exactly one effective rushing play - the Tebow power - and a cast of wide receivers who have proven they are thus far unable to get separation from defenders or make plays in space. I just can't pick a team with those proven issues to cover a 4-score spread on the road - and that's even before factoring in those very real concerns listed at the top of this section. Mississippi State is nowhere near as talented as Arkansas and, like I did last week, I'm still picking Florida to win outright, but I just can't see this one turning into a 24-point blowout. Put me down for a 28-14 type of game that's not as close as the score indicates. Those types of safe wins are Florida's best chance for survival right now and I think Meyer knows it.