Note to the reader: This week was supposed to mark the debut of a all new picks post where Matt and I would write out picks and analysis together, but Matt has gone on a pilgrimage to Denver to spend some time with the patron saint of SECCRUSH, Jim Ryan. So, for at least one more week, it will just be me providing my insight to satisfy your gambling jones. Yes, for now, the Vice Commissioner still Speaks...
Note to the reader #2: I wrote this first pick earlier this week, I promise. If you truly don't believe me, I'll be happy to email you my winning bet slip as proof. Now, onto the picks (as always, my pick is in CAPS):
SOUTH CAROLINA +4.5 @ NC State
Maybe the smartest move by the football scheduling gods was putting this otherwise blah-worthy match-up on the Thursday of opening week (worst move: the entirety of the Ole Miss non-conference schedule). I cannot put into words how awful last year's match-up was. It almost put me off of the 2008 season before it started (which, in retrospect, might not have been such a bad thing). It was so awful that I swore I'd never watch another NC State game for the rest of my life. I meant it too. Then, they went ahead and scheduled this thing as the season opener and, after a long, dry, seemingly endless off-season, and I once again find myself so happy to see any college football that I will happily lap up every single second of this game like a thirsty dog. Well played, scheduling gods.
As stated, last year's contest was awful to watch. This was partly because every South Carolina game in the Spurrier era has been awful to watch, but it is mostly because the NC State team that played in that game was the worst Div. 1 football team I have ever seen. Ever. Now, I know they didn't have their starting QB and I know they were very young on defense, but I've seen a great number of teams with those kinds of problems and I have never seen any of them play as badly as NC State did last year. I fully expected them to lose every game they played by at least 4 touchdowns. I expected their entire roster to be cut and their entire coaching staff to be fired by year's end. I wouldn't have been terribly surprised if they had just decided to dissolve their football program entirely. Well, apparently that didn't happen. Somehow, that team won 6 games last year, including a 4-game stretch of wins against ACC powerhouses Duke, Wake Forest, North Carolina and Miami that have them positioned as a darkhorse to take the conference title this year (The ACC - Gotta Love It!!!). Well, I ain't buying it. Throw in the fact that this South Carolina team is easily the most talented that Spurrier has ever had at SC and I like the Gamecocks to take this one outright. WARNING: I am fairly certain that I incorrectly picked every single South Carolina game last year. Clearly, Spurrier realized he couldn't actually win the SEC with the team he had last year, so he decided to have some fun and f%@k with me instead. Well played, Old Ball Coach. As a revenge, I plan on picking you to win outright every week of this season. How you like that?
Kentucky v. MIAMI (OH) +15
And speaking of coaches who seem to go to extraordinary lengths just to f@!k with me, here comes my old nemesis, Rich Brooks. Regular readers of the VCS will remember the many colorful battles I've had with this old bastard. We've been slugging at each other for years now. He's cost me plenty of money and I like to think I've gotten in my fair share of shots as well. Frankly, we've been enemies for so long now, we've developed a sort of “hate respect” for one another. Now, he's talking about this being his last year at UK. You are not fooling me, old friend. You and I both know that you will be around for another 100 years to haunt my dreams and my bankroll. You will not stop until you have me broke and swearing off gambling for life. So, please Rich, back off the patronizing retirement talk. You owe me better than that.
Still, I'm picking against you this week. The general consensus about UK is that no one can reach a consensus on how they're going to be this year. How much, if any, has Hartline improved? Will Cobb be able to contribute from the WR spot? Have they finally found some sort of running threat? For me, that's just too many questions to lay 2+ scores in a game against a young, but traditionally stout program at a neural location (By the way, why is UK playing Miami in a neutral location? How can this possibly benefit the team financially or otherwise? You're giving up a home game to battle the Redhawks in Cincinatti? Pointless.). Our rivalry continues, Rich.
WESTERN KENTUCKY +30 @ Tennessee
Have I mentioned how much I hate picking Week 1 games? What does anyone know for sure about Tennessee right now (besides the ins and outs of the Tampa 2 defense they plan to run, of course)? They have an entirely new staff with entirely new schemes, question marks at multiple key positions and a plan to play several true freshman. Add that relative uncertainty to the absolute uncertainty I have about Western Kentucky, and I'll admit I'm betting a bit blind here.
So, why side with the huge underdog? Well, all of those question marks I just outlined, they're on offense. If Tennessee is capable of scoring 30 points against anyone without the help of a few defensive touchdowns, then Kiffin's debut must be considered a rousing success. On top of that, Week 1 of the college football season is your #1 source for craptastic offensive performances. As I've said before, college teams do not get nearly enough preseason practices to adequately install and rehearse the complicated schemes teams are running these days. Recently, I watched a re-broadcast of the 1986 Auburn/Texas A&M bowl game. Including both teams, I counted 11 different offensive plays. 11. As I tweeted, it was barely recognizable as football. Teams nowadays will install more plays than that on the first day of fall practice. They do not have enough time to get it right. Defense, alternatively, is easier to install since it is largely reactive in nature. Thus, the crappy offenses in week 1. Take the points and thank me later.
Georgia @ OKLAHOMA ST. -5
I've always hated picking against Richt in non-conference games. It's my opinion that no coach in the SEC is better at preparing his team for non-conference games than Richt (though Meyer is mounting a strong challenge for that title). Whenever SEC teams play out of conference, and the game isn't against a traditional rival (e.g., UGA/GA Tech), they are always going to face a motivation deficit. The SEC is the big dog of college conferences and everyone knows it. Teams who get a shot at an SEC school know they have a chance to score one against the best conference in football. It's always going to mean more to them. The SEC team looks at it the other way: everything to lose, nothing to gain. Richt has done a wonderful job of keeping him team emotionally even.
Still, this game runs right up against my new rule: never trust a rookie QB. Look at last season, which teams disappointed? Auburn, Tennessee, LSU, Georgia, South Carolina. All but one started a rookie QB. Throw in teams running new schemes and you can add Arkansas and Kentucky into that mix. Who exceeded expectations? Vanderbilt, Florida and Alabama. All played QBs with experience. Sure, it's a small sample size, but it makes sense, so I'm going to see if I can ride it to a few wins this season. Georgia starts this season with rookie Joe Cox (a senior rookie, but a rookie nonetheless) and he starts against a talented, motivated team on the road. On top of all that, the word is now that he might have the damn Bird Flu! I'm sure not backing him. In fact, I'm going to make this one my Luck of the Irish Pot O' Gold Pick of the Week.
Louisiana Tech @ AUBURN -13.5
A lot of your edgy pundits are picking La Tech in the outright upset in this one. It's not happening. Those pundits point to La Tech's 8 wins last year. They fail to mention they beat absolutely no one (sorry State fans) and their losses included a 14-7 embarrassment to Army. Those pundits point to the 8 returning starters La Tech has on defense. They fail to mention that they are returning from a defense that allowed more than 30 points per game when they faced a team that finished with a winning record. Auburn may not have much (read: any) depth, but what they have will be faster and stronger than whatever La Tech has.
So, what to make of the new Auburn regime. No one knows for sure. Anyone who pretends differently is lying. However, one think I feel comfortable predicting is that this Auburn team will be the most united we've seen in several years. As painful as the Tuberville switch was to all Auburn fans (myself definitely included), it's clear at this point that it had to be done. For whatever reason, he and his staff had lost the passion it takes to maintain an SEC football program, especially considering the heights he had taken the Auburn program to. I'm betting that that unity will be enough to put away an overrated opponent and to do so handily.
VIRGINIA TECH +6.5 vs. Alabama
This game couldn't possibly interest me any less. Two boring teams with hard-ass coaches. They do have two great defenses and limit-the-damage offenses. Taking the points is never a bad decision in a defensive struggle. Throw in my new rule re: rookie quarterbacks, and it becomes pretty clear. personally, I won't go anywhere near this game, though I will watch it (Who am I kidding? The least interesting SEC game is 100x more appealing than anything else I'll have going on). I just know I'd feel better having the points.
LSU – 17.5 @ Washington
The easy runner-up for Pick of the Week honors. LSU is my pick to take the West this year and I seem to be alone in that respect. One down year and everyone seems to forget this team is LOADED. Sure, they have a terrible coach who fails to prepare this team and constantly leads them to underachieving seasons. Wait, what was my point? Oh yeah, this is one of the 10 most talented teams in the country facing off against one of the 20 least talented. Washington went 0-12 last year. ZERO AND TWELVE. They were CRUSHED by such powerhouses as Arizona and Notre Dame. Not only did they lose 12 games, they would have covered this 17.5 line in only 3 of them. They were so bad that they went from sad to funny to sad to hilarious to downright depressing.
LSU on the other had simply has to be better than they were last year. They've finally settled on the QB they should have started from the beginning, Jordan Jefferson (remember, bad coach), and they've brought in John Chavis to run the defense. Chavis, for all his faults – and there are many – he has never featured a truly bad defense. Sure, any talented and creative team will still have success against him, but Washington doesn't fit that bill.
OLE MISS -17 @ Memphis
The Ole Miss hype is accurate...mostly. A lot of people will hate reading that and with good reason. There's not a whole lot more insufferable in this world than a smug Ole Miss fan in the midst of a winning streak and, boy, are they going to have some win streaks this year. Now, I don't think they'll take the West - I've already mentioned that LSU is my pick this year - but when you actually start to look at the pieces that make the puzzle, it's tough to argue that the Rebels will win anything less than 10 games.
One question mark I had was their defense, which I remembered being the key reason the Rebels lost to Wake Forest and Alabama last year. It turns out I was wrong. They did play poorly against Wake Forest, but in just about every other game, the defense was actually the strength of the Ole Miss team. Did you know they finished 4th in rushing defense, 4th in sacks and 19th in total defense nationally? I sure didn't. They struggled against the pass overall, but they were breaking in some new guys last year and they're all back. Frankly, it was their offense (and especially much-touted QB, Jevan Snead) who held this team back from the 10 win plateau last year. Now, Snead is back with experience as well as all of his skill players. This could be a special team and this line is very likely 10 points too low.
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