No time for chit chat this week, let's get right to the picks. I usually list the games in order of their start time, but this week I had to change that because I wanted to feature one of the most exciting gambling opportunities I've seen in SEC football first. As always, my pick is in CAPS:AUBURN +2 @ Tennessee (3)
I can safely say that I have never been so shocked by a line in all my years of gambling. Each week, I play a little game in my head where I guess what the line for each game in the upcoming week will be (yes, I got the idea from the Sports Guy). Then, if a line comes out that differs significantly from my estimate, I know there might be some value in that game. My early guess for this game? Auburn -10, and that was taking into account some possible Auburn injuries and the home field advantage UT will have in the game. A 12 point difference between my projection and the actual line isn't large. It's freaking enormous. (Note: it's actually gone up to Auburn +2.5 this week!)
We're talking about a Tennessee team that allowed Ohio (that's University of, not State) to score 23 points and be within a touchdown in the 4th quarter last week. That Tennessee team is giving 2 points to an undefeated Auburn team that has beaten a surprisingly strong MSU team and a West Virginia team that is very likely BCS-bowl bound. I am an Auburn fan, but I am not a delusional Auburn fan. Despite a start that has exceeded every possible expectation, I am not entertaining thoughts of an Auburn undefeated season, a SEC West championship or even a double-digit win season. Before the season started, I would have happily settled for 7-5 and would have been ecstatic over anything better and I remain in essentially in the same place.
Still, at this point, I simply cannot fathom how Tennessee is favored in this game. Granted, Auburn's defense is the weakest they've had in years, but are they as weak as their stats indicate? Remember, 13 of Ball State's 30 points in last week's game were scored in the 4th quarter against Auburn's scrubs. Also remember that Auburn is incredibly thin on defense, so their scrubs are the scrubiest scrubs in all of scrub-land. Yes, Auburn gave up 509 yards to West Virginia, but remember that West Virginia has as good of skill position talent as Auburn will see all year (also, almost 100 yards of that 509 were surrendered at the end of each half, when Auburn was in a deep prevent). Consider further that Auburn's defense is currently 5th in the country in takeaways, showing their focus on big plays over the conservative, yard-limiting strategies of the past. Auburn's defense may have fallen far off from year's past, but their offense has made up that lost ground in spades. This is the #1 offense in the country in terms of total yards. You read that correctly. NUMBER ONE.
How is an undefeated team with an aggressive defense and the top offense in the country an underdog to a, well, a Jonathan Crompton-QBed team? I simply have no idea. I'm going to have to apologize in advance for the lack of consideration I've put into my other picks, since my entire bankroll will already be locked up in this game.
NOTE: This is where the lawyer in me wants to add some sort of ass-covering disclaimer just in case. Screw that. I believe this line is ridiculous and I'm going on the record as saying so. Remember kids, taking blindly arrogant risks is one of the true joys of gambling. Don't let the fear of public failure take that away from you.
ALABAMA -16 @ Kentucky
As we stand today, right now, at this very moment, Alabama is the best team in the country. They didn't just beat a young, but talented, Arkansas team last week. They stomped on their throats, reached into their chest and pulled out their still-beating heart, showing it to the Hog faithful before eating it. That was gross. Anyway, the Tide is beginning to be the team that one has a hard time imagining what would have to happen for a someone to beat them - much like Florida was last year. It's pretty clear now that McElroy is at least as good as Wilson was last year. Their running game has been upgraded from solid to spectacular with the addition of Richardson. Their offensive line may eventually be their weak spot, but they're not showing any signs of it now. Oh, and their defense has been good beyond words (suffocating is the closest I can think of - their speed is so overwhelming, their pressure so intense, it's easy to imagine opposing offenses are struggling to breathe). That said, I thought the Arkansas gameplan was terrible. Apparently, Petrino was as in love with his vertical passing game as I was and has forgotten everything else - 12 carries for 2008 All-World Michael Smith? Really? - so Bama just had a field day pressing the young Arkansas receivers and letting the dogs loose to chase down the mobility-challenged Mallett. It's possible that a team will be able maintain balance on offense with a few big plays sprinkled in and gamble on shutting down the Tide rushing attack and pressuring McElroy, putting an inexperienced QB in an uncomfortable situation, but after last week's total embarrassment, I'm not gambling on Kentucky to be that team.
lsu @ GEORGIA -3.5 (1)
That (1) could not be more heartfelt. I have no idea what to make of either of these teams. Last week, Georgia abruptly shifted gears from the high-flying, defensively challenged team they'd been the last two weeks to put on a tough, low-scoring slugfest against a Pac-10 team. In all honesty, I could not offer a single confident opinion on Georgia's offense, defense or special teams right now...and we're 1/3 a way through the season. Who is this team? I, for one, have absolutely no clue.
So, this pick is mostly based on what I know about their opponent, LSU. They suck. They're terrible. Or, more correctly, they currently have one of the most loaded rosters in the country playing terribly. This will be the last season for OC, Gary Crowton. His failure to ready Jordan Jefferson and his baffling stubbornness not to exploit his enormous talent advantage has finally grown thin. In their win that absolutely should have been a loss, Crowton gave Brandon LaFell 6 touches despite the fact that he was completely and utterly uncoverable. Charles Scott, he of 1174 yards and 18 TDs last year had 6 carries. Of course, it's pretty hard to manufacture more touches for your completely unstoppable athletes when you only manage 12 first downs for the entire game. There must be a serious problem with their offensive line that I just can't see, but the fact remains that Crowton has never fully exploited the talent he's had at LSU and now that they defense is not what it was on the first few years of his watch, he's being exposed. Like I said, I am not confident I know anything about Georgia, but the proof is pretty clear that LSU is set to be this season's most disappointing team.
Ole Miss @ VANDERBILT +10 (1)
Rebel fans are simply incensed by that last sentence. How dare I steal the "most disappointing" title from them? Simple, no one really had the hopes that Ole Miss was all that great. I didn't, but allowed myself to be seduced by this most formidable of paper tigers, or Rebels as it were, in my Week 1 picks. Now, there are a few obvious facts that are working against the Rebels - their offensive line is possibly the worst in the SEC, their OC has them running a Canadian football-influenced vertical passing game despite a lack of play-making WRs and the previously mentioned porous offensive line and their head coach has now continued his streak of failing to meet expectations with very talented teams. Even more worrisome, these are not easily correctable problems. Still, it's not implausible to think the Rebs can tweak things just enough to manage 8 or 9 wins, especially considering their joke of a schedule.
But, will they be able to tweak enough in one week to go on the road and cover a 10-point spread against this Vanderbilt team? I just can't take that leap. Don't get me wrong, Vanderbilt has not given us a single reason to believe they will be able to build on the unprecedented success they enjoyed last year. Two wins over Western Carolina and Rice and losses against an SEC team that was widely thought to be the worst in the league and one desperately trying to claim that title for themselves don't exactly inspire confidence, but I'll take my chances on them getting 10 against a Rebel team that is struggling to find something they do well offensively.
Another note on the Commodores: I've only gotten to watch Vandy a couple of times (have I mentioned how awesome the SEC Digital Network is?), but I've noticed one especially curious thing about them. They're trying to run a no-huddle, hurry-up offense similar to what Malzahn in running at Auburn, which is all well and good, but their play-calling is remarkably conservative - often settling to punt and play for field position. This strikes me as an inherently contradictory game plan. If you're going to make special efforts to minimize the time spent between snaps, shouldn't you adopt a slightly more aggressive strategy aimed at keeping the opposing defense on the field so you can exhaust them? What good does it do to run a hurry-up offense and then openly settle for multiple 3-and-out possessions? Are they just trying to punish their defense by sending them back onto the field with the bare minimum of rest? It seems to me that they're combining two extreme offensive philosophies and taking the worst of each. Vandy, either stick with the hurry-up and challenge your offense to make plays or slow things down, shorten the game, play things conservatively and try to win with defense. Thanks.
ARKANSAS -1.5 vs. Texas A&M (2)
They haven't published an over for this one yet, but whatever it is, I'll likely take it. A&M has been undergoing the same sort of offensive renaissance that Auburn has - moving to a fast-paced, aggressive attack. Unlike Auburn, however, they emphasize the pass very heavily, averaging over 300 ypg in the air. Of course, thus far they've played a schedule that would make Ole Miss blush, so it's hard to know what to expect from them.
For all their offensive potential, Arkansas does not have an impressive win (or even especially close game) to their credit this season. So why take them? Basically, I'm just picking talent. Not just on-field talent either - I'll take Arkansas' Petrino against A&M's Sherman any day of the week. Also, even though they don't have much to show for it, Arkansas has already been through two major battles this season and I have to think going up against that level of competition has prepared them better than A&M's creampuff run has prepared the Aggies. I'm hoping Petrino learned a little something about his team this past weekend. Namely that even though they do have a remarkably gifted QB and, thus, the ability to throw the ball deep downfield, they cannot completely forsake offensive balance and must work the ball into Michael Smith's hands - on draws or screens, especially - to take the pressure off their offensive line and give Mallett the time to be not just dynamic, but efficient as well. This one has every indication of being a shootout. I'll go with the team that's been through the refiner's fire that is SEC competition.
Georgia Tech @ MISSISSIPPI ST. +5.5 (1)
So, is MSU tougher than we all thought or are Vanderbilt and (especially) LSU much, much worse than we thought. Sure, it's probably a little of both but, call me crazy, I think it's most likely the former. Since their startlingly poor performance against Auburn, I've been very impressed with the way MSU's defense has rebounded. It's pretty clear that DC Torbush saw some of the same mental mistakes and strategic errors that I did and made the necessary corrections. Then again, it could be that the novelty of Auburn's offense was just too great a challenge for him while the relatively familiar offenses run by Vanderbilt and LSU were more in his wheelhouse. That could be a very real problem against the famous flexbone attack that Paul Johnson runs at Georgia Tech. Will he be able to adjust to an unconventional offense?
On the other side of the ball, it seems as if QB Tyson Lee has finally claimed the position as I thought he would all off-season. Obviously, Relf is a better runner, but Lee is not a terrible one and he seems to be making much better decisions with the ball (except for goal line passes and options...sorry Eddie and Tim, I couldn't resist). It's just a fact that with Relf in the game, they have a slightly more dynamic runner at QB, but can only run about 10% of the offense and for an offense that's built on a myriad of constraint concepts, that's a real problem. With Lee running things, they grade out at about a C on offense, which is light years ahead of where I expected them to be by this time this year.
Still, MSU is certainly not a great team and probably not even a good one. So, why take them getting less than a TD against a ranked team? Easy: the ACC. At this point, I'm officially picking any team from a BCS conference against an ACC opponent until further notice. I just don't think teams from the ACC belong on the field with teams from the SEC. See, I told you blind arrogance was fun.
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