VCS - Week 4 (Thursday Night Edition)

I just wanted to get my pick up for this Thursday's game. The rest will follow tomorrow.


OLE MISS -3 @ South Carolina (2)
Okay, I'm cheating a little bit here. I'll admit it. This line started at -3 and has already moved 2 points to -5, meaning a lot of the money is pouring into Ole Miss - like all the money. Still, the house rules here at SECCRUSH dictate that I base my predictions on the opening lines, not the current lines. Why? Simple - I'm lazy and I don't like having to rewrite a section when the line moves from 6.5 to 7.5 by Friday afternoon.

Here's the deal, a 2-point move in the lines in 3 days is a big deal. One sportsbook I checked with said that 75% of their bettors had their money on the Rebels. Sportsbooks hate that kind of imbalance, so they move the line to try and even things out...sometimes. When they move the line a significant amount, that tells me that they have no strong opinion on the game itself and are just trying to even out the action. When they don't move the line despite all the money going to one side, Vegas is essentially taking the other side, which means Vegas probably knows something the general public does not and you better watch out. If a sportsbook is willing to let 75% of the money stay on one side, you can assume their pretty confident the other side is going to win. That's when it is smart to go against public opinion - when was the last time you heard of a sportsbook going bankrupt?

However, that is not the case with this game. Vegas set the line at -3 and has essentially showed their hand by moving the line 2 whole points in 3 days. They really don't have a strong read on this game either way and are desperate to entice bettors to take the Gamecocks here. In this case, if all else fails, I believe you should stay on the side of the general gambling public - especially if you write a lightly-read SEC picks column and you can cheat by using the opening line. The phrase "if all else fails" certainly applies here. I can't say anything with any certainty about either of these teams. Ole Miss looked truly shaky against a subpar Memphis team with their supposed strong spot - QB Jevan Snead - looking like their weakest link, followed by an off week and then a meaningless cupcake blowout. I'll admit that I'm down on the Rebels. Every part of their game struggled against Memphis. They couldn't run or stop the run, which is a huge red flag for any team. Still, it was week 1 and Houston Nutt, for all his good qualities, has never been known as a great high-expectations coach. Now that those expectations have subsided a bit, I'm betting he surprised nearly everyone with an overwhelming performance in Columbia. It will help that he's facing a South Carolina team that suddenly can't seem to stop anyone and doesn't have nearly as many playmakers on either side of the ball as the Rebels do. Much like Vegas, I don't have a great feel for this game, so I'm going to side with the overwhelming public opinion and the more talented team.