ucla @ Tennessee -8 (3)
Look, scoring 63 points is impressive. Sure, it was against one of the worst teams I saw all weekend (Jackson St. probably being the only one worse) and, sure, the Vols didn't actually get anywhere until they stopped throwing and just allowed their impressive trio of running backs to mow down the Hilltoppers and, sure, Crompton had as many interceptions as impressive passes (2, and I'm being generous. Don't let his 5 TD passes fool you - they were intentionally manufactured by Kiffin to boost Crompton's confidence. It reminded me of when I use to run up the stats of my favorite players on Madden by having any player about to score run out of bounds at the 1, giving my guy an easy TD run on the next play.). Still, there was no way UT puts up 63 last year (in fact, 63 points is greater than UT scored in any consecutive EIGHT quarters from last year) and, as mentioned, they definitely have something to be excited about in their two freshman running backs, Oku and Bown, who were immensely impressive in their debuts. That's why I'm a little perplexed at just how low this line is. By all accounts UCLA (it was a great deal of fun writing that in all lowercase in the heading, BTW) is still stuck somewhere in the middle of a massive rebuilding process and is bringing a rookie QB (remember my new rule) into Knoxville to play a team that still harbors a grudge about that humiliating loss in Los Angeles last year. UCLA also faces a unique obstacle in going up against Monte Kiffin's Tampa 2 scheme, which was specifically designed to stop the sort of short-passing, horizontal attack that UCLA OC Norm Chow is known to favor. Personally, I don't think this one will be close. Look for Crompton to be sheltered (again) with lots of screens, short crossing routes and TE delays. Look for Hardesty and the two newbies to grind UCLA early and often and look for a complete shutdown by Eric Berry and the rest of Monte Kiffin's crew. As you may have guessed, I'm making this one my Luck of the Irish Pot O' Gold Pick of the Week.
Mississippi State @ AUBURN -14 (2)
I can honestly say that I've never seen an Auburn game like the one I saw last weekend. Not since the 2004 season have I found myself watching an Auburn offense and saying things like, "Wow, I really did not see that coming" and "I think we just pushed the ball upfield to get a last second field goal before the half, but I can't be certain because my eyes are tearing up with joy." It was the first time I've ever watched an Auburn offense (including the Bowden years I witnessed) and thought: "This team is trying to score on every play." I have no idea how that will translate to wins in the ultra-tough SEC. Still, Auburn answered a lot of questions for me last weekend. Their defensive secondary is much, much tougher than I expected - especially given they are starting true freshman (and very lightly recruited) Daren Bates at safety and that their current crop of healthy linebackers could easily fit into a 2-door sportscar with room to spare. The offense was allowed to play aggressively for the entire game - something often promised in the past and
That brings us to the Mississippi State Bulldogs, who showed some real flashes of promise in their trouncing of an over-matched Jackson St. team. However, they are not without their concerns. Foremost among them is that they seem set on proving the old adage that when you have two quarterbacks, you actually have none. It's pretty rare you see a team with such a stark difference between their QB options. The Bulldogs have one QB (Tyson Lee) who can throw, but can't run and, more disappointingly, did not appear to have a clue about what the offense is supposed to be doing. Their other option (Chris Relf) is a much more dynamic runner and actually appeared to understand the philosophy of the offense better than Lee, but he cannot throw. Plus, his lack of experience is evident in any play that doesn't go exactly according to plan. He doesn't panic so much as he reverts to believing that he is today what what I'm sure he was in high school - the best athlete on the field who can always get the angle on the defense. This instinct will not serve him well in the SEC. Now, there's some room for debate here because one thing the Auburn defense definitely struggled with last week was the unexpected QB scramble, but I'm willing to bet that the Auburn coaches will have a plan to correct this (as they largely did in the second half against La Tech). Basically, it comes down to talent. I'm taking Auburn because I believe that right now they happen to have more talent at nearly every position that Mississippi State. Add in the fact that the game is at Auburn and I think it's the safe pick.
South Carolina +7 @ Georgia (3)
Everyone is so down on the South Carolina/NC State game that kicked off our football season last Thursday, but I actually found it rather enjoyable and 100x more enjoyable than the previous meeting between the two. Everyone points to the 7-3 score as proof that the game was epitome of ineptitude. This is due to the average football fan's inability to distinguish between a "bad offense" and "good defense" game. While it is certainly true that a great number of ultra low-scoring games are due, in part or whole, to the failure of the offenses to do what they're supposed to do (See the 3-2 Auburn/Miss. State game from last year for the perfect example. Wait, actually don't see it. I don't want you holding the experience against me). However, it is also true that many low-scoring games are due to the exceptional play of the defenses involved. Take last night's NFL opener between the Titans and Steelers for example. Now, no one is going to confuse either of those offenses with the 2006 Patriots, but any attentive viewer must have realized that the low score of the game was due to the truly sensational play of the two defenses. And you know what? It was thrilling. High scores do not necessarily make for an excellent game. I'm sure you've all witnessed dozens of games that lit up the scoreboard, but that were not actually all that compelling because it was obvious that all you were watching were two terrible defenses. Great football games feature great play. Sometimes that play comes on the offensive side, sometimes it comes on the defensive side and, in those very special cases, it comes on both sides. In fact, one thing I like to do whenever I watch a game is classify all four parties (offense and defense for each team) into "good," "bad" or "average" categories to try to determine what's actually transpiring.
Let's take last week's games involving these two teams as examples. As I mentioned, I enjoyed the South Carolina game, despite it's low score. This is because I felt I was watching two excellent defenses square off against one average offense (South Carolina) and one terrible offense (NC State). So, that gave us two "goods," one "average" and one "bad." To me, if half of the parties are "good," then the game is most likely going to be enjoyable. Thus, I greatly enjoyed watching two excellent, well-coached defenses battle the entire game, with the one facing the "average" offense ultimately coming out on the short end. Turning to the Georgia/OK State game, I classified the parties thusly: Georgia offense - bad, OK State offense - average, Georgia defense - bad, OK State defense - bad. That's 3 "bads" and one "average" - a recipe for a terrible, unwatchable game, which is exactly what we got. Despite scoring 24 combined points more than South Carolina and NC State did, the Georgia/OK State game was not half as enjoyable as Gamecocks victory was. The point is, a true football fan has to learn how to enjoy excellent play, regardless of on which side of the ball it comes. How does one tell the difference between good offense and bad defense and vice versa? You'll have to keep checking in to www.seccrush.com for that one.
Turning to the game at hand, as you know from the last paragraph, I found Georgia's performance in their season opener not just disappointing, but downright putrid. The drop off offensively could be expected with the loss of stars like Stafford and Moreno and underrated role players like WR Mohamed Massaquoi, but I don't think anyone at Georgia believed it would drop off this much. The flu-ridden Cox looked over-matched both physically and mentally - frequently under throwing receivers and leaving Georgia in what was obviously the wrong play - and he wasn't getting much help from his supporting skill position players, of whom only AJ Green appears to have any game-changing ability. The defense looked somewhat better than last year's disaster, but it was ultimately unable to contain a sputtering, obviously rusty OK State offense that also only featured one game-changer, WR Dez Bryant. Playing opposite this Georgia offense, the Bulldogs defense is going to need to be a great deal better if Georgia is going to avoid a losing season. Personally, I don't see that happening. I'm looking for this one to be close - mostly because it's hard to see how either team will score more than 20 points - and in close games, always take the points.
Vanderbilt @ LSU -14.5 (1)
My continuing deathmatch with Rich Brooks has had many terrifying consequences, but the most underrated among them is that I have been too distracted to properly focus on the work of Coach Les Miles or, as I call him, The Scourge of Gamblers Everywhere. You see, gambling is an inexact science. All you can do is determine which team is better and by how much and then just back the probability that the better team will win and the worse team will lose. The Scourge complicates things by routinely having his team perform substantially below their talent level, while also scattering in some truly dominant and/or terrible performances to keep everyone off-balance. Take last season for instance, The Scourge skillfully sets everyone up with consecutive losses to woefully over-matched Ole Miss and Arkansas only to rebound with a 35-point smashing of a hot Georgia Tech team that everyone in America had picked to cover. Well, he seems to be back to his old tricks right off the bat in 2009 - presiding over a tense 8-point victory against a team with approximately half the talent LSU has. As is the pattern during his tenure, The Scourge's team appeared to have spent the entirety of the fall practice sleeping, playing in the Louisiana swamps or possibly watching the noir classics of the 1940s - anything but practicing football. It's as if he realizes how superior his talent is to just about everyone else he will face and figures, why practice when there's so many other wonderful things to do in this world?
So, why take them giving 14.5 against a Vanderbilt team that has tasted victory and must be taken seriously by everyone now? Simple - because LSU is 5 times as talented as Vanderbilt. What do you want from me? I simply cannot pick against a team with such a decided talent advantage. Add to that the fact that the Scourge must realize that everyone is giving Vandy a shot here because of LSU's performance last week, and I'm betting he's primed to unleash one of his patented unexpected blowouts that should be much more common from this team and which will force us to overrate them for the next few weeks. Or, is that just what he wants me to think?
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