Friday, June 17, 2011

The Season of Destiny - Week 1

In attempt to lessen the off-season withdrawals we’re all currently suffering, I’m introducing a new column to SECCRUSH that I’m calling “The Season of Destiny” in which I’m going to take a retroactive look at the National Championship season of the 2010 Auburn Tigers. If the title strikes you as a little grandiose and biased (and really, really corny), well, you’re correct. I am an Auburn fan and the 2010-11 season was the greatest experience in my life as a sports fan. I can’t deny that every game brings me an incredible amount of joy and I’m not going to apologize for that. However, I think that, as this series goes along, you’ll come to agree that no other title could possibly suffice. When you look back at all the happenings of the season - close calls, breaking in a new QB, the Cam drama and multiple unbelievable comebacks - the most consistent idea that comes to mind to describe what was happening on the field was that this team had a destiny. That’s not to say it was all luck, though, like all championship seasons, some luck was needed. It’s more that this collection of people brought together at this specific time seemed to only be able to play out in one specific way. I’ve been around for a few Auburn undefeated seasons, but this is the only one that carried an almost mystical air about it. My hope is to capture some of that mystique as well as provide some solid football analysis of how this team grew and dealt with the various obstacles it faced along the way. I think you’ll find most of the analysis unbiased and I hope you also find it informative and entertaining. By the way, if you want to watch each game along with me, I friend of mine’s cousin’s step-son got his hands on these impossibly amazing Blu-Ray copies of each and every game of the season from somebody at hddvd1@yahoo.com. I totally didn’t buy the full season for the embarrassingly low price of $145, but I’m sure you could if you wanted to. Just thought I’d pass that along. So, here we go! We start with the beginning: Arkansas St. vs. Auburn, September 4, 2010.

First, though, a little talk about expectations. It’s funny to think back on the beginning of this season and realize how divergent were the views of the 2010 Auburn Tigers between the general public and the Auburn faithful. The public had Auburn lowly-ranked nationally and picked to finish 4th in the absurdly competitive SEC West. Thus, most people thought that the Auburn run to the National Championship came out of nowhere. The Auburn faithful were a little less surprised. Prior to the season - even before anyone really knew what we had in Cam Newton - the vast majority of Auburn fans were considerably more optimistic about the Tigers’ chances. The thinking was that they went 8-5 the year before, all while learning a brand new offense and defense and while getting a solid D+ from Chris Todd in the QB position. Now, they were bringing virtually everyone back for their second year in their new systems to face a very favorable schedule. If Cam Newton (or whoever won the job) could give them a B or B+ at QB, double digit wins seemed exceedingly possible. So, when Cam ended up giving them an A+++, it wasn’t a huge shock that Auburn could win the SEC and be in the National Championship hunt. No one seems to remember this now, but it’s true. Now, on to the game (NOTE: I must give a big hat tip to Jerry Hinnen over at www.warblogeagle.com whose weekly game recaps are an obvious inspiration to these columns).

Pregame. Our first game is being brought to us in remarkably awesome HD clarity by Fox Sports South. Our announcers today are Bob Rathbun and the original SEC spread QB, Tim Couch. I’ve never seen anyone look as nervous as Tim Couch does during his opening of the game. I’ve seen DUI suspects show more poise on camera. Fortunately, his opening analysis is pretty smooth and he nails the early promise of Cam. Rathbun says Cam “seems to be the perfect QB to fit into Gus Mazahn’s system.” Seems to be, Bob. Seems to be.

Poor Fred Hickman is stuck doing the FS South studio show that appears to constructed out of Sportscenter sets from 1996 in the back of a moving truck. He throws it to meteorologist Katie Fehlinger who rated an impressive #22 on the list of hottest weather women in America. Finally, someone has found a more useless function for the internet than this column. Katie tells us the temperature could “plummet” to 71 degrees by the fourth quarter. I’m really missing the South right about now.

I haven’t been to a game in Auburn in about 10 years (I know, bad alumnus), so I’m not totally familiar with the current gameday traditions, so I’m very disappointed to hear the opening chords of “Eye of the Tiger” blare behind the sideline reporters opening remarks. Oh well, at least it’s not the introduction music anymore.

First Quarter. Arkansas St. has the ball first and comes out in a hurry-up, no-huddle shotgun. It looks more Airraid than Malzahn-esque power spread, which is of course terrible news for Auburn. Offenses featuring accurate, underneath passing attacks will be a recurring problem for Auburn’s defense all year. Not so much on the first drive, though, as ASU has to punt after one first down.

The punt is caught by Quindarious Carr and returned for a few yards before being tackled at the 13 yard line. That sounds trivial, but it marks an approximately 800% improvement over the 2009 Auburn punt-return game.

News breaks that Jacksonville St. has beaten Ole Miss in Oxford. That was a really fun moment.

Cam makes his debut with a veer zone read to McCalleb which will eventually become the primary staple of this offense. They haven’t added the jet motion yet, though, so things are still not quite what they will be. Cam completes a short play-action pass, hands off to McCalleb again and runs his first keeper before Auburn is forced to punt from midfield. It’s not the most auspicious beginning, but the seeds of the SEC’s best offense are obviously already there, but just as obviously need some time to grow.

ASU QB Ryan Aplin gets his first delicious taste of the Auburn pass defense when he completes a 60-yard catch and run to a WR who did not have an Auburn defender within 15 yards of him in any direction. That is not an exaggeration, nor is it going to be a unique occurrence. ASU smartly realizes that the best option against this Auburn D is to throw, throw, throw. Four pass attempts later and Aplin finds a receiver wide open in the middle of the endzone for the game's first TD. A blocked PAT is the only bright spot, but it’s safe to say that Auburn’s 2010 season began...slowly.

After a good return by Washington, Auburn starts their second drive of the Cam Era near midfield. Cam starts off with a run right, but it’s clear that no one’s quite sure how this is supposed to work yet - 3 yard gain negated by holding penalty. Outside zone to McCalleb looks like a read play, but Cam looks to have no serious intentions of keeping it. That will definitely change. Cam’s first downfield pass is a wobbly one to a covered Darvin Adams which is knocked away. Unspectacular except for this: Cam threw it nearly 50 yards with no feet on the ground. Cam’s first big run of the year comes on a QB draw on 3 & 14. 16 yard gain, 1st down. McCalleb then gets loose - first on a sweep left and then on an option right to get them down inside the five. From there, we get our first look at the Kodi Burns-led Wildcat which we all knew was not long for this world, but works just fine here as Burns sweeps right and dives into the endzone for Auburn’s first TD. As an Auburn fan, this makes me happy, but as a Cam-owning fantasy owner who remembers losing this week’s game by 1 point, I’m furious. One week later and Cam is the one running that one in. If he does it here, I win the game and begin my march towards the championship. Wake up, Malzahn!

ASU gets the ball and is quickly introduced to the terror that will come to be known as Nick Fairley. He tossed one linemen out of the way, runs past two others for his first sack of the season. I’m going to have to come up with some shorthand for that series of events, because I don’t want to have to type it 500 times. ASU moves backwards about 20 yards before having to punt from their own endzone. Carr again catches the ball (!) and actually returns it about 12 yards.

Big-play Auburn makes it’s debut on a well-constructed play-action wheel route pass to Mario Fannin. The 40-yard throw is in the air for approximately 28 seconds, but Mario is so wide-open it doesn’t matter. TD Auburn. 14-6 Tigers at the end of the 1st.

Second Quarter. The second quarter brings us our first Mike Dyer sighting of the year. I really don’t remember seeing him this early. He strings together two consecutive runs for about 12 yards before being called off the field so Auburn can run the rest of the offense. Still, a promising start. Unfortunately, the offense proceeds to move directly backwards without him and has to punt.

Auburn’s defensive line is wreaking absolute havoc for Aplin, but a disturbing trend is developing: wide-open WRs. Every time he’s gotten a ball off, his target has been virtually alone in the Auburn backfield. If he had hit even half of those, this game would feel much different. As it is, they go 3 and out.

The first real Newton magic occurs on a 2-and-5 when he drops back to pass, feels pressure, then proceeds to duck and weave, dodging at least 9 defenders, for an awesome 15-yard-gain. It just looks unfair. Malzahn goes back to his magic hat on the next play with a double-pass resulting in a 47-yard completion from Neil Caudle to Darvin Adams. The pass was definitely from Caudle, even though the announcers go to puzzling lengths to insist it was from Burns. Maybe they had Kodi on their fantasy team. Speaking of fantasy teams, Newton dives in on the next play on a very early version of the jet veer read option. That first quarter Kodi TD burns even more now. 21-6 Auburn with 9:43 left in the half.

ASU returns to their play-action short passing game and it works, though the receivers are surprisingly covered this time. They catch the ball anyway. Alpin takes off an a rather impressive 12-yard scramble for a first down before being dragged down my Jessel Curry, who I just realized is white. That’s the most surprising racial revelation in the SEC since I first laid eyes on Jevan Snead. One play later, ASU surprisingly breaks a buck sweep left for a 13-yard gain into the end zone and their second TD of the day. That won’t happen much to Auburn’s D this year. 21-13 Auburn with 6:30 left in the half.

Auburn responds by getting a quick first down on the ground before Cam drops a 50-yard bomb into the hands of Quindarius Carr who might just have gotten away with the slightest of Michael Irvin-style shove-offs. TD Auburn. 28-13 Auburn. Total drive: 3 plays, 65 yards, 0:43. A drive that was unthinkable just 2 years ago is soon to become so regular an occurrence that we barely notice it. Good times.

My disappointment with the Auburn gameday music selection continues as “Living on a Prayer” blares out of our tin-can quality sound-system. Seriously, does one current Auburn student even know that song? Let’s hope not. We’ve passed enough crap down to our young. Let’s not add insult to injury by forcing Bon Jovi onto the poor kids. I’m assuming Auburn Band is not playing because they’re preparing for the halftime show. At least, I hope that’s what’s happening.

The crowd seems to think this is a 50-point game in the 4th quarter instead of a 15-point game with 6 minutes to go before halftime. It is whisper quiet in there. I blame Mr. Bovine Joni himself. ASU returns to the quick passing game and is suddenly at the Auburn 30. Despite regular pressure from our front 4 and wide-open receivers in the secondary, Roof is now dialing up blitzes. I don’t understand. This curious strategy allows ASU to convert a 3-and-9 and puts them inside the 10 yard line. After passing all the way down the field, ASU makes on odd move by running twice before a play-action pass is knocked down. They settle for a field goal. 28-16 Auburn with 3:04 remaining in the half.

Auburn continues their quick-striking ways when Newton play-fakes to McCalleb, sets to throw and then decides running straight ahead 72 yards for a TD would be more fun. That looked like some sort of no-contact scrimmage play. At no point is any ASU defender within 7 yards of Cam. I honestly thought the play had been blown dead or something. Just unreal. Couch responds by calling him “Vince Young with Daunte Culpepper’s arm.” We apparently still can’t find a white QB to compare him with, but that’s still pretty high praise. 35-16 Auburn with 2:19 remaining in the half.

After forcing a quick 3-and-out by ASU and using both their remaining TOs, Auburn gets the ball back and tries to punch in one more score before the half. They fail, but this showed that Chizik and Malzahn were still going to press the opposition at every turn - something that was a welcome change to the Auburn faithful after a decade of Tuberville conservatism.

Third Quarter. Demond Washington takes the kickoff almost to midfield only to just kind of give it away at the end of the run. Couch claims the ball was stripped, but I maintain he just dropped it on purpose. It appears to have been part of Auburn's second half strategy, as we'll see. It’s oddly comforting to have the first special teams mistake out of the way. After the cavalcade of horrors that was the 2009 special teams, most Auburn fans were expecting the worst from the 2010 squad.

ASU again makes the surprising choice of starting with the run, which goes nowhere, before again turning to the short passing game bail them out. They get inside the 10 before a clever mini-draw lands them in the endzone. It’s now 35-23 and much closer than any Auburn fan wanted it to be.

Things only get worse after the ensuing kickoff. On the first play from scrimmage, Malzahn calls the Fannin fumble play (Note: I don’t know the official name of the play, but I’m quite certain it’s a designed fumble. That’s really the only explanation for how predictable it is.) and ASU is suddenly in serious business at the Auburn 29.

Fortunately, they go back to the run, draw a couple of penalties and then Fairley does his thing again and they turn the ball over on downs. However, after Auburn gets called for an illegal pick on a play that Alabama ran approximately 45 times in a row during the 2009 Iron Bowl, they have to punt back to ASU. They can’t do anything with it and send it right back.

Welcome back, Mr. Dyer. Mike breaks the first play of the drive for a solid gain and a first down and they continue riding him, clearly trying to settle this game down a little. Just as you can see Fannin’s future carries disappearing right in front of his eyes, he takes a short pass 40-something yards to the house. 42-23, Auburn with 8:07 left in the quarter. It must be noted what a good job this was by Newton. For my money, it’s his first really impressive play in the passing game of the season. It starts with a rare under-center snap, two play-fakes and at least 2 down-field reads before he checks down to a wide-open Fannin. That’s a complicated play to make in your first game as a starter.

After another ASU punt, Auburn tries to run something we did not see much of the rest of the year - a zone read with a WR screen constraint option. Basically, Newton runs the zone read with Dyer, keeps the ball and then flicks it out to Zachery on the edge once the defense attacks him. It’s a play that Malzahn’s had in the playbook for a while (I remember him running it in the 2009 A-day game), but that we’ve rarely seen called in a game. Maybe this play shows why. It’s ugly and possibly very dangerous since the WR screen can easily become a backwards pass, which turns an incompletion like the one here into a fumble and a serious problem. Oh well, it was a pretty cool idea. Auburn punts on a 4-and-1, which is a proof that this offense is not yet what it will become. The Newton power play was a certain first down there. They just haven’t discovered it yet.

This is getting out of hand quickly. ASU turns the ball over on downs and Auburn replies with a healthy dose of Dyer following by long play-action pass to Carr (Q had 2 catches for 87 yards and a TD this game and 1 catch for 16 yards and a TD the rest of the season. I wonder what happened.). Malzahn tries to torture me a little more by putting Burns back in as the wildcat so he can lose 4 yards and force Auburn to settle for a 27-yard field goal.

Fourth Quarter. In a game that’s clearly out of reach, ASU makes yet another curious decision to keep running their starting QB directly into the teeth of the Auburn defensive line. You almost feel sorry for the poor guy.

Auburn sees ASU questionable decision-making and raises by keeping all of their starters in, despite the game being over and a road game at Mississippi State looming only short 4 days away. 105-lb. Onterrio McCalebb gets hit hard twice, then Newton gets hit, then Dyer. I know the outcome and I’m STILL nervous. Reeling myself back in, I realize that it’s only a 22-point game with over 11 mins left and I try to admire Chizik’s willingness to crush teams when possible. Plus, it’s obvious everyone wants to get Dyer his first TD. Still, Newton gets dragged down on an uncalled horse collar tackle and my heart stops for just a second. Dyer finally plunges in from the 3 and it’s officially way out of hand at 52-23 Auburn with 9:11 left.

The scrubs are in for both sides now. ASU manages a field goal and then Trotter and company run out the final few minutes. Final score: Auburn 53, ASU 23.

What Did We Learn? Auburn has playmakers. This wasn’t news to any Auburn fans. McCalleb and Fannin were more-or-less proven commodities and Dyer and Newton were the awesome additions that most everyone expected them to be. While things were still a little rough around the edges, it was obvious to see the potential of this offense. McCalleb outside, Newton and Dyer inside, Adams and Carr (?) down the field - all with Malzahn pulling the strings and clearly having a blast doing so. The Tigers rolled up an almost-quiet 608 yards of total offense without ever looking especially sharp in the passing game (see below). Clearly, this offense could be great.

The pass defense was still mediocre, at best. They allowed 323 passing yards to what we thought would be one of the worse offenses they’d face all year. When ASU's QB had time, he had his choice of wide open receivers both deep and shallow. A slightly better passer could have easily gone for 450 yards and made this game much more competitive that it ended up being. Still, they never gave up the big play and absolutely dominated against the run. Who knows? Maybe that will be enough.

What Didn’t We Learn? Lots. First and foremost, we still had no real idea if Newton was going to be able to deliver what was needed at QB. It seems silly to say something like that after a game where he threw for 186 yards, ran for 171 and accounted for 5 touchdowns, but only the most optimistic Auburn fan could pretend he’d really answered the serious questions we all had about him. Yes, he was an incredible athlete, but no one expected those huge scrambles to be quite so easy against SEC defenses. Plus, even though he was 9/14 passing with three touchdowns, I would argue he didn’t have a single impressive throw. The two bombs had way too much hang time and the rest were check-downs to wide open receivers underneath. He had no big third down throws and only appeared to make any sort of read once. He still had a long way to go.

We also still didn’t know if Malzahn’s pressure-down play-calling had improved. This was mostly because Auburn never really faced a pressure down in this game, but it was still very much on the minds of most Auburn fans how exactly this team would convert 3-and-less than 5s. The vicious Cam-based running attack had not yet taken form and the Kodi-as-wildcat idea was still being used, much to the chagrin of many fans. Would the proper adjustments be made in time for a touch road game in Starkville? We’ll find out next week.

Sean

Follow me on Twitter - @seccrush

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

A Word on the Newton Ruling and the Nature of Precedents

As many of you already know, the NCAA released a statement today declaring Cam Newton eligible for this season. As most of you also know, I am an Auburn graduate and devout fan. What you may not know is that I am also an attorney and, as an attorney, there is one particular aspect of the Newton ruling (and especially the resulting fervor it has generated), that I feel the need to discuss. Namely, what precedent, if any, has the NCAA set with this ruling. Precedents are extremely important in American jurisprudence and the large majority of legal education and practice in this country is spent interpreting and applying precedents that have been set by our various courts, agencies, etc. This is what attorneys do. That’s why the popular interpretations of this ruling that are currently being bandied about on sports radio, as well as all the various blogs and forums that comprise our little sports universe, leave me confused and even a little indignant. Allow me to explain. Precedents gleaned from rulings must be specifically tailored to the facts of the case in which the ruling was issued. Let’s look at a simple example. Let’s say you own a knife. Now, let’s say that a friend of yours steals your knife from you and ,without your knowledge, uses it to stab his girlfriend (Note: this is a totally fictional story and not in any way based on thousands of cases I saw as a prosecutor in Memphis). The girlfriend then sues you for damages. If the court rules that you are not liable for your friend’s actions, even though your knife was involved, the precedent must be something along the lines of: a person cannot be punished for the wrongdoing of another, even if that person’s property was used in the wrongdoing. What the precedent cannot be expanded to is something like: no one can be punished for crimes involving a knife. Makes sense, right? So, how does this apply to the Cam Newton ruling?

The overwhelming majority of sports outlets have spent the day loudly proclaiming that the NCAA ruling regarding Cam Newton’s eligibility sets a precedent that allows representatives of potential student-athletes solicit money in exchange for the services of the student-athlete without fear of any punishment or consequences. Clay Travis, a popular blogger and radio personality (as well as fellow Vanderbilt Law School alum), characterized the precedent as a “dump truck-sized loophole” in the NCAA rules regarding player eligibility. Dan Wetzel of Yahoo Sports essentially echoed that sentiment later on the Paul Finebaum Show. I respectfully disagree. The facts of this case as we currently know them and, therefore, the precedent this ruling sets, are much, much narrower than these individuals are choosing to believe (Note: of course, new facts could change everything, but we have to work with the facts we have). The real precedent that this ruling sets is that you will not be severely punished for soliciting money for the services of a student athlete so long as:

1. No money ever actually changes hands
2. The athlete does not sign with the school that was solicited for money
3. The athlete had no knowledge of the wrongdoing
4. The school the athlete does sign with did not participate in, and has no knowledge of, the wrongdoing


That’s hardly a dump truck-sized loophole, in my humble legal opinion. I fail to see how a ruling on those specific facts creates an incentive for representatives of student-athletes to solicit money without fear of punishment. The biggest element here is, of course, the money. The fact that no money ever changed hands is an absolute deal-changer in this case and allows the NCAA to carve this very minor precedent. After all, who would want to solicit money that they are not allowed to actually receive? How would one solicit money from a school while keeping the player and the school in the dark about the scheme? It is difficult to conceive of a scenario where someone could personally benefit, financially or otherwise, while staying within the precedent outlined above. That is why I believe that the Newton ruling will not, in fact, have the sweeping negative effect that these media personalities are predicting.

One argument that I have heard absolutely no one make (not surprisingly) is that the NCAA should be applauded for seeing that punishing an innocent player and an innocent school for an attempted solicitation of another school would be a hammer-handed and counterproductive response. Let’s think about if they had ruled the other way. What would Auburn be being punished for? What lessons would Auburn learn? How is it fair and/or efficient to punish a member institution and a student-athlete that are, by all available accounts, completely innocent of any wrongdoing? Wouldn’t that be a far more harmful precedent to set than the one outlined above? Personally, I’d fear the following rule:

A school can be severely punished for the wrongdoing of a third party of which the school had no knowledge or involvement.

much, much more than one that says:

Representatives can ask for money so long as they never receive it and the player doesn’t sign with the school that was solicited.

Am I way off-base here?

The Newton case is certainly an odd one. There’s no doubt that solicitation of money for the services of a student-athlete is against NCAA rules and an activity that the NCAA would certainly like to discourage. Some will argue that the Newton ruling is contrary to that goal. I, however, believe the precedent set is narrow enough that the NCAA has not undercut their goals and I applaud them for realizing that.

Friday, November 5, 2010

MY #2 CENTS ON CAM, STATE, & AUBURN


I am an Auburn alum. I am an Auburn fan.

Before I let out my thoughts, here are the FACTS.

  • Auburn knew about this back in the summer.
  • Auburn has a very tight compliance department. Strict or not, compliance departments cannot turn the other way to NCAA allegations like this.
  • As great as Cam is, no school would risk forfeiting an entire season by playing a guy once they knew the NCAA was investigating, if they weren't sure TO THE BEST OF THEIR KNOWLEDGE that he was clean.
  • The man that supposedly was soliciting Newton, Kenny Rogers, is currently under investigation for misrepresentation by the NFLPA. Misrepresentation! Lying!
Now here's what I think. I am sick over this. If the assumptions are true, I will be both angry at my school and the Newton clan. If they are false, I am sick over the fact that Cam and his team are being found guilty without the truth being known yet. We have a crooked agent who contacted someone at State, and now an Auburn player's reputation and Heisman hopes are likely gone. How does that make sense?

I'll say this again. Auburn has known about this since before the season began. They didn't know he would be the most dominant man in college football when they deemed him eligible. Just like UNC and UGA did, they could've taken preemptive action to maintain the integrity of their season while the NCAA completed their investigations. Auburn's non-action tells me they're very confident that to the best of their knowledge, Cam and his family are not guilty of any of these assumptions.

Could there be sins committed that Auburn don't know about? Absolutely. The assumption that someone connected to Auburn paid the Newton's $200,000 could be true. The facts, though, do not merit the black cloud now hanging over Cam at this time.

Many, including one particular childish moron, are now saying that Newton should not win the Heisman, that another Reggie Bush-like saga should not ensue over the overrated shrine that once succumbed to media peer pressure by awarding it to a defensive player over the greatest quarterback of our time. Explain to me how you maintain the "integrity" of the award by not giving it to the greatest player simply based off of assumptions and allegations?

I dread this dragging on for years. I dread that this not only drags down Newton, but also the rest of the players of an outstanding 2010 team. I dread that, if true, I will be ashamed of my school. Most of all, I dread that false assumptions are being taken as a guilty verdict by the national media.

What I don't understand is why Mississippi State chose to handle it this way. The SEC and NCAA are already involved. What does State gain by dragging Newton through the mud? Don't tell me this was just a former State QB and not the school making this story public. State, let the full truth come out, not just your side of the story (which centers around a crooked agent/runner). I'm guessing that Mullen is a little more willing to leave for another school now, because an already-lopsided "rivalry" is about to become a cage match, and I don't think State is up for a battle like that.

There's a lot of crooked activity that goes on in college sports that we are all blind to. This could certainly be part of it. Albert Means is not the only player of the past two decades that a school paid for. He's just the only one that got caught. Cam and/or his reps could be crooked. I just hope everyone let's the full truth come out before morally penalizing the young man.

Bottomline, I don't know the truth...and neither do you.

I BELIEVE IN AUBURN AND LOVE IT...don't make this alum into a fool, Auburn.

Matt

Friday, October 29, 2010

VCS 2010 Week 9

Tennessee @ SOUTH CAROLINA -17.5
Ugh. What to say about the Vols at this point? I took them last week - with more points - on the theory that they’d be so up for the game that they’d keep it close at home, and I was right...for about 2.5 quarters. It’s become clear they don’t have anything - talent, inspiration, discipline - needed to offer a competitive game against a quality opponent. I really dislike taking underdogs I believe have no real chance of winning the game. Points alone, do not a successful gambler make. I can’t see any way the Vols remain in this one, so I’m giving a ton of points to an inconsistent Gamecocks team and praying the Vols have totally surrendered. It’s as good a plan as any.

Florida vs. GEORGIA -3
Man, I really don’t like any of this week’s games. How can it be week 9 and we still know next to nothing about two of the premier programs of the league? Can Florida finally make the changes to their offensive strategy to successfully exploit their talent? Is Florida’s talent as great as everyone has made it out to be or are they a team of workout warriors with little actual football acumen? Is their defense really this bad against the run or are they just so demoralized by their offense’s impotence that they’re unable to summon the required will? Has Georgia’s defense actually improved from the train wreck they were last season or are they simply untested? Have they finally found a rushing attack to supplement freshman QB Aaron Murray’s very impressive performance thus far?

If you can answer any of those questions with a modicum of confidence, you are way ahead of me. So, like Gordon Gekko, I’m taking the dog with the least fleas, quite fittingly. The biggest reason? In my experience as a college football fan (and especially as an Auburn fan), I’ve come to believe that it is nearly impossible for teams to successfully make a dramatic switch in offensive philosophy mid-season. There’s just far too much prep work needed to install an offense. You can’t just scrap your spread-option, play-action attack and start running a vertical, pass-first system overnight. For starters, no one is trained for it - not the QB, not the WRs, not the OL, not the position coaches, no one. Secondly, offensive coordinators are not universally competent to run all types of offenses (NOTE: Florida fans would tell you that Addazio is not competent to run any type of offense, but that’s another discussion). Even if the Florida staff had the will to reverse course on their offensive scheme (which I very seriously doubt), I don’t think they’d have the ability to do so.

Being stuck in an ill-fitting offensive scheme is a problem that just does not go away (look at the 2003 and 2008 Auburn Tigers if you want proof). It limits your success on the field and demoralizes your team and your fans. It’s miserable and it usually takes at least a year to resolve. Georgia’s problems are real, but not as insufferable. My guess is that will carry the day for the them.

AUBURN -7 @ Ole Miss
Don’t expect any disspationate or rational analysis here. We’re way past that when it comes to my Auburn Tigers. Frankly, I’m dreading this picks. Though it’s stuck in the middle of this column, I am writing this segment last. Dead last and only after a week of agony. I hate this game. I hate games where my team has everything to lose and nothing to gain. I hate games against talented, but underacheiving, teams. I hate SEC road games. I hate games against Houston Nutt in any scenario. I’ve actually even considered not even watching this one. Think that’s crazy and/or blasphemous? You may be right, but I can’t see how any Auburn fan can watch this game and expect to feel anything other than mild relief (best case scenario) or abject agony. Why put myself through that? There’s no joy to be had here.

Still, I’m trying to fight this mindset. Auburn deserves to be #1. There’s simply no doubt about that. Auburn deserves to be favored in this game, too. In fact, the only reason this spread is as low as it is and the only reason so many national analysts are picking the upset, is because of the widespread belief that the burden of expectations will be too much for Auburn, just as it has been too much for several other teams this year and just has it has been too much for Auburn teams of the past. It’s a convenient and solid thought process. Me, I think this is a new day for Auburn. This staff (a staff once, um, doubted by the Auburn faithful) has spent their two years on The Plains proving every doubt about them wrong. Gus Malzahn’s offense could not be successful in the SEC? Wrong. Chris Todd could never been an effective starting quarterback? Wrong. Auburn could never compete with the likes of Alabama and LSU in the recruiting wars? Wrong. Auburn could not expect to win with a new starting QB and new RBs? Double wrong. I’ve reached the point where I don’t think history is much of a guide anymore when trying to predict the future of this team. Really, when you look at the accomplishments this group has already acheived, beating an inferior Ole Miss team on the road with a lot at stake doesn’t seem like that tall of an order. I’m guessing this version of the Auburn Tigers fill it.

KENTUCKY +6 @ Mississippi State
I refuse to get locked into another battle of wills with the University of Kentucky. I pick them week after week only to watch them self-sabotage themselves just to spite me. I’m not giving them the pleasure of watching me squirm.

Here (again), the Wildcats take on a team with no noticeable superiority over them. Kentucky quadruples the number of offensive playmakers that the Bulldogs employ. True, their defense has been wretched, but if there’s ever a week when that won’t hurt them, it’s this one. In fact, I’m not sure I’d ever take this Bulldog team when their giving more than 3 points. Let’s remember, with Florida’s swoon and Georgia’s early season woes, this will be the first explosive offense the Bulldogs have faced since the Auburn game in week 2. They did well to slow down that attack, but were unable to score enough to make their defense’s effort worthwhile. I see a similar game unfolding here. Look for this one to be a one-score game heading into the final minutes. I’m not sure who’ll finish on top, but I’d be more comfortable with 6 points on my side.

Vanderbilt @ ARKANSAS -20.5
Here’s another one where, if you take the underdog, you are just clinging to the points in the hope that the favorite will be disorganized/bored/injured enough to keep the game much closer than it deserves to be. No one can seriously give Vanderbilt a chance here, especially after their total no-show last week. Arkansas knows they have to run the table to have any chance to win the West, so I don’t think motivation will be a problem. Mallett showed no ill-effects of whatever concussion he suffered two weeks ago, so I see no reason to expect injuries to play a major part. Could the Hogs come out flat and disorganized? Sure. I always worry that a heavy favorite might fail to be sharp - especially early and especially when the favorite is a heavy-passing team - but I just have ZERO confidence in Vandy at this point and I can’t see how anyone can think differently. I get the feeling that everyone involved with the program - players, administration, fans - view this season as nothing more than a lame duck...something to endure until they learn where the program is really headed. I’ll discuss my thoughts on that later, but for now, I’m not backing this Dore team against much of anyone.

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

COLLEGE FOOTBALL'S PUBLIC ENEMIES



Excuse me while I take a coffee break from Cam Newton. I can’t get enough of him on Saturdays, but I can’t take any more talk about him in between. There is absolutely NOTHING more that can be said about him. NOTHING.

So instead of talking about the greatest piece of 2010 college football, I’m here to play Debbie Downer. The following are the greatest culprits to college football today.

#1 - BCS

I won’t spend too much time on this one, because it’s obvious. Both the BCS and the direct influence of the human polls (#3 on this list) are so out of line that there are NO legitimate arguments out there for it over a playoff. The excuse of players playing too many games has been debunked by the BCS supporters themselves (school/conference big-wigs) when they brought in a 12th regular season game and conference championship games.

#2 - BOISE ST

They are in a unique spot, because not only are they #2 on this list, but they could also be what saves us from #1.

First let me go over the reasons for sticking them at #2. Until there’s a playoff, all college football conversations will revolve around hypotheticals (as has always been the case). Until the teams can face each other on the field, we really have no basis for truly determining the best teams. I’ll say this though. Comparing a three-point Auburn victory over Kentucky with a 10-point Ohio St victory over Penn St is a lot easier than comparing said-Auburn victory with a 49-point Boise St win over (insert WAC “rival” here). Nobody knows how good Boise St really is because there are too many factors to consider when the team isn’t playing legitimate competition. 50-point wins every week tell me one thing—those Boise St players aren’t getting banged up every week. Their sauna has to be the least-used one in the entire country. So not only do they face ridiculously poor competition, but they get to stay Week One Fresh every week of the season.

Now let me explain how they could also save us from the BCS. PUT THEM IN THE BCS CHAMPIONSHIP. Watch the mess unfold. Watch the ratings plummet. Watch merchandise sales drop. Watch ticket prices actually become reasonable. After Boise gets through with the BCS title game (win or lose), those in charge will be clamoring for a change.

I have no doubt that Boise could compete against any team in the nation in January after six weeks off. They have talent. They have incredible coaching. There is no team in the country that would be more than a four-point favorite over Boise St. But none of that changes the fact that a WAC conference schedule should automatically disqualify a team from competing for a National Championship. It may have to happen for the greater good though.


#3 - THE HUMAN POLLS

The fact that there are three of them should make it blatantly obvious of the inherent flaws of the process. And despite the Harris Poll making the "bold" decision to hold off on starting their poll until a few weeks into the season, all three polls have the top six teams the same. No matter how good our intentions are, there is unavoidable prejudice. Even if all polls didn’t start until week five of the season, you’d still have the ESPNs and other sportswriters making it known which teams were the best even before the season began, and thus influencing the polls, no matter when they were released.

I realize that polls will never go away, even with a playoff scenario. It’s in our nature to rank, but that doesn’t mean that it still isn’t hurting the game we love. A “necessary evil” I guess. Still no excuse for Auburn, who has the best resume by far, only getting three first-place votes.

#4 - TEXAS

Texas’ control over their conference hurts this game, and we saw the results of it this past offseason.

I don’t necessarily agree with the attempts by the Pac 10 and others to create mega-size power conferences, but once Nebraska and Colorado bolted, Texas’ influence to keep the Big 12 from breaking up hurt the entire game of college football. With those defections, an already-lopsided conference (both talent-wise and financially) became even more uneven. Yet there was Texas, exerting their power, not for the good of the conference, but for the good of their team. They managed to both maintain their giant piece of the financial pie AND keep their schedule soft enough to succeed in the nation’s eyes. Their efforts to keep the Big 12 brotherhood together helped no one but themselves (and perhaps the lowest tier of Big 12 teams who otherwise would have been sucked up by mid-level conferences, which, HELLO, tells us the talent level of at least half the conference!).

Texas is getting what they deserve this season.

#5 – KIRK HERBSTREIT

Outside of his obvious OSU bias, no one person should have so much influence, especially when his statements are so often hypocritical. Back in 2004, Herbie went on and on late in the season about how Auburn’s weak schedule made it an easy decision to leave them out of the National Championship (this example is also applicable to #3 above). Yet here we are a few years later, and he fails to acknowledge the same logic in his current Boise St campaign. The fact that he is going to week-in-and-week-out tell the nation that Boise St is a top two team despite their schedule goes directly against what he has said in the past. And that’s the problem. His influence is not only damaging the nation’s ear, but it’s hurting college football. The need for ESPN and its employees to make up talking points just for ratings really is disappointing. I love the ESPN/SEC deal and the amount of college football it brings us every week. Now that ESPN has the BCS bowls though, I worry about agendas. I will say that I like that Fowler is still vehemently against the BCS, but I am convinced that both the network and its top college football “expert” take it upon themselves to put their own agendas in place no matter the hypocrisy.