WEEK 11 VCS - Enjoy It While It Lasts

Business is just booming over here at the VCS. A 3-0-1 run last weekend (damn you, LSU/Alabama officials!!!) has me flush and ready for an exciting late-season run. I still can't believe how many irrelevant games are being played this late in the year (Louisiana Tech @ LSU -24.5 and Troy @ ARKANSAS -13.5 will not be up for discussion this week), but our Week 11 slate is certainly much richer than we had last week (even if it turn into one of the most surprisingly enjoyable weekends of the year - Navy over Notre Dame, the downfalls of Iowa and Oregon, the aforementioned unbeaten gambling run). So, let's enjoy the sweet gift that is college football while we still have it. Don't let the ill fortunes of your particular team or the officiating get you down. The greatest season of the year is coming to a close. Let's cherish every minute together. On to this week's picks:

TENNESSEE +4.5 @ Ole Miss (3)
I do not believe Tennessee has undergone a miraculous offensive resurgence of late (Memphis, South Carolina and Georgia do not exactly constitute tough defensive opposition), but I will go out on the ledge to say they have undergone something of a offensive awakening (that is, they have progressed from "comatose" to "recently awaken" - still stumbling about looking for their glasses and in need of a big cup of coffee). It's a crafty plan by Kiffin to artificially inflate the stats of his weakest link (Crompton, if it needed to be said) against the Vols' weakest opponents (16 of his 21 TDs have come against Western Kentucky, Georgia, Ohio and Memphis) - a strategy I've endorsed in this column many times before. Smart coaches use games against weaker opponents to improve their weakest areas. This develops you into a much more well-rounded team and bolsters the confidence of the players involved - an especially welcome benefit when it comes to quarterbacks. The opposite strategy (we'll call this the Tuberville plan) of simply relying on the one thing you do well to build you a lead and then subbing out all of your starters - who have gained absolute nothing from the experience - is wasteful, inefficient and bound to leave your team in hot water once they finally face a decent defense. Kiffin has created an environment that allows his players to believe they have a shot against anyone, which is quite an accomplishment and probably the nicest thing I'll ever say about him.

Ole Miss strikes me as a team headed in the opposite direction. Their season has been a utter disappointment and their offense, despite returning almost every relevant piece from last year's unit, has yet to find an identity or consistent source of production. A great deal of this is due to their dreadful offensive line play, which is a problem, because it's the most difficult aspect of offensive play to correct mid-season. That's bad news against a Tennessee defense that only seems to get better week to week. Because of their pitiful schedule, Ole Miss still needs one more win to become bowl-eligible despite being 6-3 (only one victory over a I-AA opponent can count towards bowl eligibility, which should tell you all you need to know about the Rebel's non-conference slate). Personally, I think it will come down to the Egg Bowl.

Kentucky @ VANDERBILT +3 (1)
Blah, blah, blah. Same game every year. Kentucky is probably a little better than Vandy, but no one's sure how much their injuries are going to slow them down. The Cats probably have to have this one to become bowl eligible, but apparently that doesn't matter much to anyone, because EVERY TIME I've followed that logic to make a pick, it's burned me. For some odd reason, the prospect of spending Christmas vacation in Birmingham or, ugh, Shreveport instead of at home with their friends and families just doesn't light a fire under these kids like you'd think it would. Who'd have thought that? Anyway, with no idea what to do, I'll take the home dog. Picking against Rich Brooks is always fun, too.

Florida @ SOUTH CAROLINA +16 (2)
I'm sticking with my plan of taking the points in any SEC game with a spread larger than 2 touchdowns. I told you last week that Florida's offensive explosion against UGA was a mirage and I was proven correct by their 375-yard, 27 points, much closer than it sounds victory over Vandy. Now, they travel to Columbia to play a South Carolina team that has been woefully unimpressive as of late, but gets to return home after two weeks on the road and is due for a bounce-back performance against a Florida team that has struggled to put nearly everyone away. Throw in Spurrier's rapidly deteriorating, but probably still existent, cache and I think this one stays uncomfortably close for the Gators.

Alabama @ MISSISSIPPI STATE +12
Here, I'm sticking with my other plan of taking the points against Bama for the rest of the season, which would have me on quite the win streak if not for that officiating abortion against LSU, which allowed the Tide that undeserved field goal which caused a push on the 9-point spread (the most under-reported aspect of that particular controversy and the only thing that kept me from being perfect last weekend -- I still think Rich Brooks was involved somehow).

That's what I had written before I asked the opinion of Eddie, my sole brother and long-suffering State fan. "Nope." he said, "We won't be able to run on them. It will be close, something like 24-14 going into the 4th and then they'll break a long run and that will be it." His voice was the perfect picture of confidence and resolution. Who am I to doubt such earnest sentiments from such a true fan? So,...

ALABAMA -12 @ Mississippi State (2)
There, that feels better. Eddie's reasoning actually makes a lot of sense and, when I think about it, a 12-point spread is low enough that it seems Vegas has learned from their mistakes of week's past and it dropping the lines in Alabama games. I have little doubt that two or three weeks ago this line would have been in the 20-28 point range and would have been a layup for astute gamblers like myself. Now, they've dropped the line a score or so and are hoping that no one will notice and just keep on taking the points.

It makes sense from a football perspective as well, I just cannot conceive of any way State will be able to generate consistent gains offensively. That will leave Bama with plenty of chances to find some combination to unlock a their offense and, just as Eddie predicted, a few big plays late will put this one out of reach. 31-13 feels about right to me.

AUBURN +4 @ Georgia (1)
I hate when the Auburn game is the clearly War Games bet of the weekend, but that's the case here. Georgia is dangerous. Always beware of incredibly talented teams that have underperformed for an extended period of time. They always pick the moment they look most vulnerable to put it all together and ruin enterprising gamblers everywhere. Both teams are pretty close to terrible on defense, but while Auburn's struggles are easily explained (very thin, both in depth and talent and playing opposite a fast-paced offense that forces them to play an incredible number of snaps), Georgia's struggles are much harder to understand. They have recruited well for years and don't have anything near the depth issues Auburn has had this year. They also are not playing opposite the type of offense that Auburn is. One has to assume that their recruiting, while highly regarded by the experts, was often off the mark and that their coaching, for whatever reason, has failed to properly motivate/prepare their charges for the tasks at hand. From a gambling standpoint, that's pretty terrifying. There's simply no way to know if and when that talent is finally going to mesh together and take their performance to the next level.

Why take Auburn? Well, in a game this uncertain, I like to have the points, even it is only 4 points. Plus, this is Week 11. I just feel like if Georgia's talent and coaching were capable of clicking as I discussed above, then we would have seen it happen at some point this season. We haven't. So, while Georgia is probably capable of being the better team, I don't trust them to actually achieve that potential. I'll take an Auburn team that believes it has a chance to finish strong over a Georgia team that, at this point, has to be terrified they might not even get to a bowl game.

Read more...

VCS - WEEK 10: Short by no fault of my own

I am sure that sometime about three months from now, I will deeply regret saying or even thinking this, but I am considering skipping this week's slate of SEC action. This is not due to some change of heart on my part - a realignment of my values so that SEC football does not compete with my friends, family and faith for my attention. I'd never let that happen. No, this is the fault of the spineless and unimaginative schedule-makers who currently pollute our conference and who have given us games involving Furman, Tennessee Tech, Eastern Kentucky and Northern Arizona in the same week. They've also given us Memphis, but compared to the rest of the slate, that choice of opponent qualifies as something tantamount calling out the late-70s Steelers. Who thought it was a good idea to schedule these patsies at all, much less all in the same weekend? And these aren't early season warm-up games either - this is November! The primest of all football primetimes! Baseball is over, the conference and national title hunts are in full swing - there is no better football time on the calendar. Why are we doing this? Please don't tell me it's for Homecoming. Is there any more antiquated and pointless concept than a major college football program designating one particular weekend as a "Homecoming" that necessitates the scheduling of a woe-fully over-matched opponent so as not to offend the delicate sensibilities of the returning alumni? Most SEC teams have 8 home football games a year. That's 8 precious opportunities each year to visit our alma maters to see our football teams. Are you seriously telling me we need to specially designate one particular weekend to draw alumni back to campus and, in order to be successful, we have to schedule the most unwatchable game possible for them to see? This is an embarrassment and an abomination. Worst of all, it seriously limits our gambling opportunities! Where is the outrage? Where are the protests? I, for one, am inconsolable. We are so near the end the college football season. I just want to immerse myself in it as much as possible before it leaves me for what always seems like forever. I just want to create a few memories to help tide me over through the off-season of death and the lords of the game give me a slate so unwatchable it single-handedly makes the most compelling argument in favor of pro football I've ever heard.

That paragraph made me very angry. It's time to let go of the bitterness over what we do not have this weekend and instead focus on the few bright spots available to us. I'll even throw in the Memphis/UT game, even if I have next to zero insight to offer into that match-up. These are desperate times, indeed. As always, my pick is in CAPS:

South Carolina @ ARKANSAS -5.5 (2)
Probably the two greatest enigmas in the SEC face off in Fayetteville this weekend and, trust me, the location is the only reason behind my selection. Spurrier seems intent on continuing his run of fielding the most baffling team in the SEC. Arkansas is coming off what can only be called an embarrassing showing against Ole Miss two weekends ago. I don't trust either one of these teams, so I'm going with the home team, who, luckily for me, is also the more talented team. There's no reason why the consistently middling South Carolina offense should be able to keep pace with this Arkansas attack, except, perhaps, for the fact that they get to face the, um, underwhelming Arkansas defense (last in the conference in total D, 40 yards from the second to last team). To me, this looks like a contest between one team that is terrible on offense and slightly above average on defense (South Carolina) and a team who is fantastic on offense and terrible on defense (Arkansas). When in doubt, take the team that is better at what they do well, especially if they're at home.

LSU +9 @ Alabama (2)
Most people will tell you that LSU is the most overrated team in the SEC this year. Those people are largely correct. The catch is that they are also one of the most talented teams in the SEC this year (I'd put them second behind Florida). How does the second most talented team in the SEC become the most overrated? Just add a healthy sprinkling of Lucky Les Miles, that's how. Les Miles: Guaranteed to have your team operating at about 75% of its potential or your money back! As you may be able to tell, I am not a fan of Mr. Miles coaching acumen. Still, that son of a bitch is lucky. I'd wager that no coach is SEC history has laughed in the face of the logic gods more often and, not only gotten away with it, but somehow prospered. For once, I want to have that luck working my way.

Of course, this pick also has something to do with the fact that I have a hard time conceiving how Alabama will cover a two-score spread when they are currently unable to complete the tricky football maneuver called the forward pass. McElroy has been living dangerously for weeks now - getting by first on his rushing game and defense and now by his defense alone. I can't see any reason this game will not mirror Bama's latest effort against Tennessee. If anything, LSU boasts considerably more talent than Tennessee and now has access to the Vol gameplan that shut down Alabama's previously unstoppable rushing attack. Whoops, did I just insinuate competence on the part of the LSU coaches? My bad. Still, this one has 21-17 written all over it.

Memphis @ TENNESSEE -26 (1)
Like I said, I have nothing to say here. Memphis, I have heard, is pretty terrible and just looking for a place to lay down and die. Knoxville seems like as good a place as any to do that. I know I have, on more than one occasion, found myself in Knoxville thinking, "I wish I could die." Add to that a Tennessee team that seems to have it's mojo back just in time for the Vols annual November "surge" against non-conference cupcake X, Vandy and Kentucky and I think this one will be over early...and that Kiffin will keep scoring anyway.

VANDERBILT +33.5 @ Florida (3)
This has to be one of the more absurd lines of the year. The commentators in Florida's game last week kept proclaiming that the Gators had finally "found their offense." No doubt. Of course a lot of teams have "found their offense" against a Georgia defense that has allowed more points than any other in the league. A lot. Like, all of them. Remember, this is the defense that allowed the second-worst scoring team in the league, South Carolina, to hang 37 on the board early this year. This is the defense that somehow, some way gave Jonathan Freaking Crompton his groove back (or, more accurately, gave him his groove for the very first time in his life). Finding your offense against that defense is not an achievement, it's practically an obligation. Personally, I'm not buying that all of the Gators' problems have been solved. I still don't see that they have developed any kind of dependable rushing attack outside of their Tebow power package and I personally don't think Louis Murphy can be counted on to make the circus catches he made against Georgia to open the Gators' passing attack every week, especially not against a Vanderbilt defense that is 3rd in the conference in pass defense. 20+ point spreads in SEC games are always cause for alarm, but, personally, I think this one is a cause for jubilation. Hooray, I have one game to gamble on!

Read more...

WEEK 9 VCS

I'm afraid it's another very busy week at work and I won't be able to provide you with as long a VCS column as usual. Still, I didn't want you to go completely without my wisdom and wit, so I threw this short issue together to get you through the weekend. First of all, here are the picks that don't matter: TULANE +35 @ lsu, E. Michigan @ ARKANSAS - 38. Here's the rest:

OLE MISS -3.5 @ Auburn (3)
I have neither seen nor heard anything to indicate that the Auburn freefall will be halted this weekend. No major changes have been made and no one is coming back from the injury list that gives me any reason to support the Tigers getting anything less than 2 scores against any SEC opponent. To me, this looks like another terrible match-up for them - very stout defense and an offense that's got plenty of talent and just starting to find their way. The home setting and the many problems the Rebels still have make me think this one will not be a blowout like last week (as predicted here), but it won't be a field goal game either.

GEORGIA +15.5 vs. Florida (1)
Every offense in the conference stinks. Until further notice, I'm adopting a new rule: If the spread is more than 2 TD's, take the points. I think we have a lot of 24-14 games in our future.

Mississippi St. @ KENTUCKY -3.5 (1)
In all honesty, I think this line is right on the money. The two teams are probably just about even, so Kentucky gives points because the game is in Lexington. The big question here is how the Bulldogs will respond coming off the emotional loss last week. I imagine it would be pretty difficult to go from taking on the #1 team in the country at home, with a real hope that you can win, only to lose a hard-fought contest to traveling to Kentucky and taking on a team that you care absolutely about. I'm guessing that that emotional downturn will be enough to push State into a sloppy effort.

GEORGIA TECH -12 @ Vanderbilt
This is a terrible match-up for Vandy. The one thing that Vandy has done so well (and the only thing that has kept them in any games lately) is defend against the pass, which just happens to be the one thing Tech has little to no interest in doing. So, with their greatest advantaged largely neutralized and their offense still in a complete shambles, I think this could could get out of hand early.

SOUTH CAROLINA +5.5 @ Tennessee (2)
I'm very impressed with the resurrection job Kiffin is putting together in Knoxville, but I'm still not willing back Crompton laying points against any SEC team. Remember, Spurrier has plenty of motivation for sticking it to Kiffin at home this year and he's got the defense and QB to do so. This just feels like a field goal game to me.

Read more...

VCS - WEEK 8

I'm glad to say that I feel a little better about this week's action, although it doesn't seem to matter how I feel about the lines at all. I could not have felt worse about last week's lines and I still went 4-2, though I somehow again failed to make any money. Well, whatever it's worth, I feel much more optimistic about this week, so you should all be gearing up to mock me more than usual after I crash and burn on Saturday, which apparently you love to do, especially when my misses involve my beloved Auburn Tigers. I really appreciate that by the way, fellas. There's nothing like writing a column where you pick your team to win, actually backing up your pick with your own money only to then watch both your money and your heart go up in flames when your team loses and then having to hear about it over and over again from the people you are hoping to entertain. I don't remember anyone writing to thank me for the Auburn/Tennessee gift a couple of weeks ago or a single phone call praising me for seeing the Arkansas and South Carolina surprise covers last week, but I pick Auburn to beat a team they haven't lost to in 43 years and suddenly my inbox is stuffed full with helpful reminders of my mistake. With friends like this, indeed.

I haven't lost hope though. I'm going to keep plugging along. All the negativity in the world isn't going to stop the VCS Train. I hope you enjoy this week's installment. For some reason, it was especially fun to write. As always, my picks are in CAPS:

ARKANSAS +6 @ Ole Miss (3)
Easily the most surprising line of the week. I just cannot fathom how an easier-than-it-looked blowout of a pretty terrible UAB team puts Ole Miss in position to be favored over a team that in the past two weeks has blown out Auburn at home and beaten Florida at Florida (Yes, I'm giving the Hogs a victory in that game. No rational person capable of recognizing such an obvious officiating meltdown can possibly think otherwise). I'm confused. Doesn't Ole Miss still have a gaping wound where their offensive line should be? Isn't it disconcerting that even against such weak competition they could still only manage 163 yards rushing with no single back going over 60 yards? Does one good game suddenly restore the burning oil tanker of a disaster that has been the season of Jevan Snead? I say no. For my money, Arkansas is easily the second best team in the West right now, behind only Alabama. I'll say this again: this team is LOADED. It's just a matter of waiting for their many excellent players to become seasoned enough to play somewhere near their potential. I think they're pretty close.

The one interesting argument in favor of the Rebels here is that Arkansas might be depressed from a morale perspective following the crushing (and, as mentioned, totally unjust) loss to the Gators last weekend. That could certainly be true, but I have trouble believing that a team that's already lost twice this season would have so much invested in one game. The mental and emotional readiness of a team is a significant factor in college football (see Auburn two weeks ago at Arkansas), but it is also nearly impossible to identify. Unless I have a clear sense that a team is on an emotional downswing, I find it's better to ignore such amorphous concepts altogether and just pick the game in straight football terms. Here, that means a victory for the Hogs and another dispiriting loss for the fallen Rebs.

TENNESSEE +15.5 @ Alabama (2)
All those warning signs I discussed last weekend about Bama? There's still in play. McElroy is officially struggling and is being continuously bailed out by his rushing attack - or, more accurately, by opposing defensive coordinators' collective refusal to stack against the run and force McElroy to beat them through the air. That's a trend I see ending this week. This strikes me as the perfect match-up for Tennessee (admittedly, that's not saying much). They get to play a team that can't score in bunches and is content to engage in a run-shortened, defensive battle, which just happens to be the only type of game Tennessee can play. I'm not looking for any miracles from Crompton (which is very, very good for me), I just think Monte Kiffin will put just enough on the shoulders of McElroy to make this one ugly. Ugly and close. And, as the time honored gambling rule says, Ugly + Close + 15.5 point spread = TAKE THE POINTS.

La Monroe @ KENTUCKY -16.5 (1)
I'm not writing about this game. In fact, I may ban Rich Brooks from my column permanently. It's bad enough that he has been torturing me here for years, but when he took our little spat onto the playing field and embarrassed my Auburn Tigers on national TV just to spite me, well, I'm drawing a line in the sand. Across this line, you do not cross.

Vanderbilt @ SOUTH CAROLINA -12.5 (2)
Vanderbilt is bad. This, in and of itself, is nothing new. However, it is my contention that this year's Vandy badness is something of a different animal than previous years' Vandy badness. Before, they were the plucky little underdog who was deceptively good at a few things, always fought hard and made those JP games much, much closer than they deserved to be (forcing us all to sit through an entire Dave-centric broadcast) only to spectacularly combust at the end and allow MAJOR FAVORITE TEAM X to escape unharmed. That Vandy we all knew and loved didn't win much, but boy howdy did they have some spectacular covers over the years. JP Vandy was almost guaranteed to cover any double-digit spread that dared face them in the late morning hours. Unfortunately, that Vandy is dead. The new Vandy is still surprisingly good at a few things (namely, pass defense), but the unmitigated disaster that is the Vandy offense seems to have excised a remarkable amount of that underdog pluck from the Vandy consciousness. You'd think decades of losing would have conditioned the Dores faithful to accept their weekly meltdowns with meek resignation, but this has not been the case. I guess the brief taste of winning they experienced last season created a bigger thirst for more of the same than anyone anticipated, because I've sensed a whole new level of anger and resentment from the Dore faithful (read: Jeremy K.) about the traditional Vandy losing than I've ever sensed before. Those yuppies are pissed! I haven't seen Vandy people this upset since the two Starbucks on 21st Ave. stopped selling pumpkin lattes immediately after Halloween in 2003. This type of negativity does not stay self-contained within the fan base, trust me. So, if it hasn't already happened, the defense will start to wonder exactly why they're busting their butts all game only to watch their offense politely refuse to move the ball towards the opponent's end of the field. I'm putting Vanderbilt on a "Tuberville/Franklin Full Meltdown Alert" and teams on meltdown alert do not get picked to cover on the road.

Auburn @ LSU -7.5 (2)
I'm not going to bother looking at my past columns to see for sure (that's the kind of hard-nosed research that the VCS just doesn't do), but I'm almost certain that I've taken Auburn in every column so far this season. That strategy was working very well at the beginning of the season when the Tigers boasted the number 1 offense in the country and were surprising teams with huge offensive outputs and a refusal to leave points on the field. The past couple of weeks? Not so much. The accepted theory concerning the offense's sudden and complete impotence (sorry for the unpleasant imagery, but no term fits the situation better) is that QB Chris Todd has somehow re-injured or just worn out his throwing shoulder leaving the passing game in utter ruins and allowing defenses to load up on the rushing attack. That sounds like as good an explanation as any, but I have trouble putting my full faith in it. I've kept relatively silent on the performance of new OC Gus Malzahn this season. Most college football writers have spent the early part of this season tossing out effusive praise for him like it was cheap candy, with the word "genius" being used an embarrassing number of times, even by today's loose standards. Look, there's no doubt that what Malzahn has accomplished with this set of players is impressive, but I think the light being shone upon him seemed a little brighter than it actually was because of the eternal darkness the Auburn faithful were forced to walk through during the 2008 debacle. His formations are creative, his incorporation of a power running scheme into multiple spread sets is inspired, but it has always seemed to me that his system lacks a certain sophistication that an offense must have in order to succeed consistently in a league as tough as the SEC. For example, his passing schemes appear particularly unevolved - incorporating little more than the standard route tree that every receiver learns on his first ever day of practice and, more problematically, relying entirely too much on the individual ability of the WRs to get open on their own (a serious mistake given his current crop of receivers). All of this could be because of time or personnel limitations that have been placed on him this season and, as an Auburn fan, I'm more than willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and the time he needs to grow into a truly great offensive mind, but I just don't see how that's going to happen this year, especially with a QB who does not seem capable of performing well anymore. Have I closed the book on the 2009 Auburn Tigers? Not at all. I picked this team for a 7-5 season and that seems to be exactly where they are headed. I think they still have the capacity to surprise several of the teams left on their schedule, but I don't think it will happen this week.

Remember, this is an LSU with tremendous talent. Sure, they're terribly coached (I believe that LSU OC Gary Crowton will almost certainly be replaced a year's end), but they are also playing at home, at night with all of their SEC West hopes on the line. This is NOT the ideal environment in which to try and rejuvenate a struggling offense with an insecure (as possibly lame) QB. Plus, it's a great matchup for LSU. They have certainly struggled offensively, but their multi-headed rushing attack is perfectly situated to exploit a paper-thin Auburn defense that surrendered 282 yards on the ground to a Kentucky team that did not even have a quarterback (VCL bangs head on desk, gently sobs). I'm not sure LSU has it in them to blow anyone out, but if they're going to do it against any SEC team this season, I'm afraid this is the time, Tiger Stadium is the place and my beloved Auburn Tigers just might be the team.

Florida @ MISSISSIPPI STATE +23 (3)
The trendiest pick of the week. You've got a giant who's struggling with some unforeseen limitations and who, many suspect, might finally be starting to doubt itself. You've got the new head coach going against his former school. You've got key injuries (Brandon Spikes). You've got a impressive and inexplicable historical precedent (UF has not won in Starkville since 1985). All of this has everyone - EVERYONE - smelling blood in the water for a potential upset of the Gators and, if an actual Bulldog victory is a possibility, then Bulldogs +23 must be a mortal lock, right?

Usually, all of this would have me running - nah, sprinting - towards the favorite. As a gambler, you really don't want to get caught up in a swell of public opinion. Here's the rule: bookies are not losing money. When they set a line like this - one that flies flagrantly in the face of the prevailing public opinion (yeah alliterations!) - you don't want to get sucked into following the crowd. It almost feels like a sneak attack; some sort of deceptive misdirection where all the gamblers zig, the teams zag and the bookies zog us all (10 VCS Rubles to anyone who gets that reference).

So, why am I backing the popular underdog here? Simple, it makes great football sense to expect a close game here. The proof is now definitive - there's simply no more arguing that Florida's offense is seriously limited at this point in the season and, worse still, is not showing signs of improving. They have exactly one effective rushing play - the Tebow power - and a cast of wide receivers who have proven they are thus far unable to get separation from defenders or make plays in space. I just can't pick a team with those proven issues to cover a 4-score spread on the road - and that's even before factoring in those very real concerns listed at the top of this section. Mississippi State is nowhere near as talented as Arkansas and, like I did last week, I'm still picking Florida to win outright, but I just can't see this one turning into a 24-point blowout. Put me down for a 28-14 type of game that's not as close as the score indicates. Those types of safe wins are Florida's best chance for survival right now and I think Meyer knows it.

Read more...

VCS - WEEK 7 - I'm Back, Baby!

I know you were all terribly disappointed that I didn't post a VCS column last week, but I'm sure the hundreds of thousands of dollars you made on my Auburn +2 over UT prediction from Week 5 soothed the pain somewhat. What's that? You didn't take my advice? I was wondering why my phone wasn't blowing up with gleeful calls of appreciation. Why am I even doing this if you aren't going to take advantage??? Frankly, I'm outraged. And hurt. I'm hurt and outraged and your unwillingness to take my advice. From now on, none of you are allowed to complain about having to work while I'm around.

Seriously, though, I missed writing this last week and I'm glad to be back. I just wish I had a better grip on the league this year. You'll notice quite a few 1s (and maybe lower) in my confidence ratings this week. I expect you to proceed with the appropriate caution. Well, here they are. Enjoy.

GEORGIA -7.5 @ Vanderbilt (3)
Two programs in an absolute freefall kickoff our SEC action for the weekend, continuing the crafty strategy of putting the least interesting game on first thing, when I'm so desperate for my SEC fix that I'd watch large chess pieces draped in the appropriate jerseys move around the field for 3 hours. Kudos, ESPN. Still, at least they are showing two early games this weekend with the Mississippi St. game kicking off just a few minutes after this one. Hoo-ray. So, I guess the question is which team is closest to coming out of their freefall or, failing that, which team's freefall is not quite as deep as the other's. This is usually dangerous territory for gamblers. Trying to pick which bad team will suck less on a particular day is fraught with all sorts of unknown and uncountable factors - team morale, fan frustration, possibly changes being considered, etc. Normally, I wouldn't go anywhere near this one, but this just seems like the perfect match-up for Georgia. Sure, they are struggling on defense. Okay, maybe "struggling" isn't nearly a strong enough word for a unit that just allowed this to happen. Still, a game against the Commodores appears to be the perfect tonic to resuscitate even the most downtrodden of defenses (namely, Georgia's). This Vanderbilt team is totally lost right now. They have no identity or confidence on offense (a bad plan for a team with the greatest talent disparity of any team in the conference) and, while their defense has been excellent this year, no defense can hold the line forever when their offense leaves them stranded over and over again (and a hurry-up offense is even worse). Georgia burned me terribly last week and if this Vandy team had any semblance of momentum heading into this game, I might give them a shot. As it is, I look for Georgia's freefall to be put on pause this weekend with an easy victory in Nashville.

MISSISSIPPI ST. - 4.5 @ Middle Tennessee (1)
I was initially puzzled by this line as well. I, like most of the country, had only viewed MTSU's latest effort - a nationally-televised embarrassment at the hands of the almighty Troy Trojans. You can imagine my surprise to discover that the Blue Raiders are actually 3-2 with a semi-respectable win at Maryland. With Mississippi State standing at 2-4 with their only wins coming against the hapless Commodores and a totally overmatched Jackson St. team, it might come as a surprise that I've selected the Bulldogs to cover on the road. I really don't have a concrete explanation for it, but I continue to be impressed with the efforts put forth by this Mississippi St. team under the directed of Dan Mullen. Though they have 4 of them, they might have the most impressive losses of any 4-loss team in the country - at Auburn, LSU, Georiga Tech and a very good Houston team. On top of that, they were really only truly out of one of those games in the 4th quarter - the loss at Auburn. Perhaps I'm mistaken, but I continue to see the Bulldogs as a team that is improving a little (okay, sometimes very little) every week and, by season's end, might be in position to pull off an upset against a team that had much higher expectations for this season (*cough* Egg Bowl *cough*). Or, it could be that I'm just so eager to pick against a Tony Franklin-coached offense that I'd take the Texas State Armadillos if they were headed to Murfreesboro this weekend. Whatever, it may be close, but I think Dixon will have a huge day and State escapes with a 7-10 point win.

ARKANSAS +24.5 @ Florida (1)
See, I told you that Arkansas offense was something. I just said it two weeks too early (and right before the Razorbacks faced the best defense in the country). Arkansas coming out party against Auburn was not surprising to me. The fact is that their offense is loaded from top to bottom and their defense is athletic, even if they're not the reincarnation of the '86 Bears that Auburn made them look like in the first half. They got stomped by Alabama for many of the same reasons they were able to stomp Auburn (first road game, terrible matchup) and while some of those factors are in play here, I've got to think the Hogs will be playing with a bit more confidence this weekend. Florida will not be upset at home, but their offense is clearly suffering from the loss of Harvin and Mullen more than anyone wanted to consider before the season. Throw in a shaky, overprotected Tebow and I think this one stays close until the fourth, with Florida pulling out the same sort of safe wins they've had over LSU and Tennessee.

UBA +22 @ Ole Miss (negative 1)
As my confidence rating indicates, I have no idea what will happen in this game and won't be going anywhere near it on Saturday. Still, I think it's time we stop waiting for Ole Miss to turn this ship around. Like most people, I expected Ole Miss to compete for the SEC West title (though I didn't think they'd win it) and, like most people, after they lost to South Carolina and looked downright mediocre against Vanderbilt, I expected Houston Nutt to get the team turned around and get them playing like the annoying, overachieving teams of his past. Now, I just can't see that happening. I can't find a way out for them offensively. Their offensive line is dreadful - creating no kind of rushing attack and leaving Snead jittery on every dropback. They have a startling lack of playmakers. Name one player they have on offense that you fear. Snead doesn't work because he cannot fulfill his promise without someone - anyone - to get open, catch his passes and do something with them. They have a collection of running backs who all have the same attribute - in a word: SLOW. Their defense has performed more than admirably, but we're getting to that point in the season when teams whose defenses have been carrying inept offenses start to break down - due both to wear on both their bodies and their minds. It's getting difficult to see how they can blowout anyone with the problems they have.

Kentucky @ AUBURN -14 (2)
Hmmm, I know Auburn looked bad last weekend, but did they really look "unable to clobber a reeling Kentucky team who lost their starting QB at home" bad? Can't the Auburn dump job last weekend be explained, at least in part, by multiple factors that were in play then, but not in play now (first game after a big, emotional win, first game after finally being ranked, first morning game (don't underestimate that), suspensions/injuries that left an already-thin defense even more vulnerable, terrible match-up against a loaded pass-heavy offense)? Now, Auburn is back at home, at night and taking on an offense that might not attempt 10 passes all game. Call me crazy, but I'll lay 2 touchdowns here without even thinking about it. Or, I would if I hadn't promised myself I would never wager on Auburn again after my HEAVY backing of them in the UT game almost killed me. I'm not joking. The Good Doctor was sincerely concerned for my safety. The stress was so great that I wasn't even happy when I (and Auburn) finally prevailed. I was just utterly wiped and left debating if I ever again want to watch sports, gamble or even get out of bed in the morning. The thing is, I just don't need to add the extra financial interest to the Auburn games I watch. My emotional investment is more than enough. Then again, I did ultimately decide to return to watching sports and getting out of bed in the morning, so we'll see what happens with this particular vow.

SOUTH CAROLINA +17 @ Alabama (2)
No one's making a lot of money picking against the Tide lately, but part of being a good gambler is reading the tea leaves and jumping on a trend before it becomes general knowledge. It was fairly easy for anyone following Auburn closely to see the potential for the letdown last weekend, despite the lack of evidence in the stat sheet. Now, despite virtually no evidence, I am feeling a turning of the fortunes of the Tide - if only a little. At the beginning of the season, I predicted rookie QB Greg McElroy would suffer some first-year jitters. He has been going to extraordinary lengths to prove me wrong. Now, I believe his first cracks are starting to show. He hasn't passed the 150 yard mark in two weeks and his 50% completion percentage isn't exactly blowing me away. So far, his defense and his running game has bailed him out, but eventually someone is going to force the game into his hands. Maybe picking South Carolina's defense (currently 9th in the conference against the run) to be the unit that finally does so isn't the best bet - next week's contest against Monte Kiffin's unit might be the smarter pick - but swings in momentum have a way of rendering past statistical data meaningless. My gut tells me that Alabama just might be on the verge of such a swing - and in a downward fashion. If you're going to go against them, I say now is the time and a 3 score spread gives you an awfully generous cushion to do so.

Read more...